Straitjacket
Week of April 11-16, 2026
Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
United States imposes blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz; Pakistani mediators arrive in Iran, hopes rise for nuclear deal as Trump looks for off-ramp. After a 21-hour round of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad last Saturday ended without a deal to end the war, Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading Iran on the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday, April 13. Accusing Iran of “WORLD EXTORTION”, Trump threatened that any person who attacked the U.S. vessels would be “BLOWN TO HELL!” A statement from CENTCOM later clarified that the blockade would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas… on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” and would not “impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.” The IRGC responded that such a blockade in international waters would be illegal and amount to piracy, and would respond accordingly against U.S.-allied Gulf nations if their ports were attacked. Trump claimed two Navy warships were able to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday to begin clearing mines to free transit; Iranian media disputed the claim, saying the ships were turned back after a tense confrontation over the radio; a drone was launched as a warning and negotiators in Islamabad were informed. U.S. officials did not dispute Iran’s claim, saying that the ships “changed course” as part of a “broader tactical mission.” Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel again as the Pentagon announced 10,000 more troops would be deployed to the Gulf on Monday as the blockade took effect. The Navy said the blockade had turned back six ships on the first day of the blockade, and no vessels had made it past the blockade; however, journalists following public ship tracking data say that at least 15 vessels crossed the strait in the first 48 hours, including nine linked to Iran and at least three having left Iranian ports. On Tuesday, live shipping data showed the U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker Rich Starry and several other tankers departing Iranian ports and headed mainly for China crossed the Strait successfully, contradicting U.S. Navy reports. China on Tuesday called the U.S. blockade a “dangerous and irresponsible act” that could escalate tensions in the region, and urged both parties to return to the negotiating table. The blockade aims to put pressure on Tehran to agree to more talks, but experts said that having survived 45 years of sanctions and a month of heavy bombardment, time would only be on Iran’s side as oil prices push ever higher.
More information emerged on the failed talks in Islamabad as each side revealed their sticking points; JD Vance issued a short statement on Sunday, saying that Iran “chose not to accept our terms” for an agreement to end the war, which included giving up the enrichment of uranium entirely, before leaving Islamabad with the 300-person delegation that had been sent with him. Veteran diplomats on the U.S. side observed that “twenty-one hours was 20 hours too many if the goal was to reiterate a demand Iran had already rejected,” and that the Administration was naive to think that “after only 21 hours of negotiations Iran would give up enrichment,” indicating that Vance “totally misread the moment and the Iranian delegation.” Foreign Minister Araghchi offered the Iranian view on X, where he said that given the seriousness of the talks “at the highest level in 47 years,” Iran “engaged with U.S in good faith,” but then, “inches away” from an agreement, encountered “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade” from the U.S. side; adding in conclusion: “Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.” Iran also claimed that talks from the U.S. side “shifted focus” – after Vance received a call from Netanyahu – toward issues that reflected “Israel’s interests” as the United States tried to “achieve at the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.” Netanyahu offered his own account of how the talks “exploded” around the nuclear question at an Israeli cabinet meeting, recounting how Vance “reported to him in detail” about the talks, “as this administration does every day.” The latter statement, an apparent boast to assuage critics in the Cabinet who were angry at not being involved in the talks, sparked backlash in Washington, D.C. and abroad as foreign officials called it an act of “structural humiliation” and U.S. lawmakers expressed outrage that Israel received more transparency on the war from the Administration than Congress, which alone holds the Constitutional authority to declare war. Democrats pushed again to force a War Powers resolution vote as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held briefings with European and GCC leaders on Iran’s position and offers regarding the nuclear program and the Strait, in a move “designed to increase pressure on the U.S. to accept compromises.” Iranian President Pezeshkian also met with French President Macron to reiterate that the Trump Administration’s “irrational demands” led to the scuttling of talks in Islamabad and that Iran would continue negotiations “only within the framework of international law.” CNN reported Tuesday that Trump Administration officials met internally to discuss proposals for a second round of talks with Iran, apparently just to be “prepared… should things head in that direction.”
On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir traveled to Tehran bearing a message from Washington in a bid to restart talks, as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif prepared for official visits to Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Qatar for a round of talks regarding “bilateral cooperation” and “regional peace and security.” Trump told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo that the war is “very close to over,” the United States has “beaten” Iran “militarily, totally,” and that the Iranians “want to make a deal very badly.” JD Vance told the audience at a Turning Point USA event that Trump wants to “make a grand bargain” with Iran, that in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, they would “make Iran thrive” by “inviting” the 7,000 year old civilization “into the world economy in a way they haven’t been in my entire life.” Meanwhile, the United States tightened its blockade, blocking ships with Iranian oil headed for China as U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced his intention to punish China for being an “unreliable global partner,”later extending the threat to all buyers of Iranian oil in the launch of what he called “Operation Economic Fury.” Experts warned that rather than ramp up the pressure on Iran, the blockade may backfire on the United States as leaders may tend to see it in its current context as a measure of U.S./Israeli intransigence rather than willingness to engage in good faith negotiations to “turn Iran’s strategic leverage into a stake in regional stability.”Iranian President Pezeshkian says his country is not seeking war but dialogue and that any attempt by the United States to impose its will or force Iran to surrender will fail. The IRGC said that the continuing U.S. blockade constituted a violation of the ceasefire and that they were prepared, with Yemen’s Houthis, to close off the Red Sea if the blockade continued. Araghchi, in a phone call to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, warned of the consequences of U.S. “provocative actions” in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, saying its movements posed a direct threat to regional stability and would lead to a more “complicated situation” in the region. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who were both on phone calls with Iran this week, signaled their willingness to help Pakistan bring the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table.
On Thursday, Hegseth held a briefing in which he declared that the United States was in control of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran no longer had a Navy, and would maintain the blockade of Iranian ports “for as long as it takes.” He said the United States was prepared to resume hostilities if Iran rejected the deal, and as Iran’s energy infrastructure was not yet all destroyed, the United States is “locked and loaded” to finish the job. Satellite images showed that Iranian forces have already cleared most of the bunkers, silos, and launch pads at missile launch sites the U.S. bombed, suggesting that Iran may be regaining any lost missile capacity much sooner than estimated. The U.S. Navy announced an expansion of the blockade to include all vessels trying to reach Iranian territory that may be “subject to visit, board, search and seizure.” An analysis by maritime shipping company TankerTrackers found that Iran has shipped out nine million barrels of crude oil since the U.S. blockade went into effect. The House of Representatives’ War Powers resolution failed by just one vote, with some Republicans signaling that the conflict was not ‘open-ended’ and the vote balance could change once Trump hits his 60-day statutory limit on April 29, after which he must seek approval from Congress to continue the war. All eyes were then on the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon as Iran and Pakistan both stressed that peace in Lebanon was integral to any ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, and was one of Iran’s prerequisites for returning to peace talks. Trump announced a “major breakthrough” had been achieved in the nuclear negotiations, saying that Iran had agreed not to make a nuclear weapon, which was the same condition Iran had already agreed to in 2015 under the JCPOA. Iran also rejected the U.S. demand that it stop enriching uranium for 20 years, but reportedly has made a counter-offer (likely of 5 years) to continue negotiating. Iran also indicated it would be willing to allow ships to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, hinting that a potential breakthrough to release pressure on the global market was possible. Early on Friday, April 17, Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that “passage for all commercial vessels will be completely open” on the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire period. Trump expressed optimism that face-to-face talks could resume in Islamabad this weekend, or “in a few days,” and that the United States and Iran are in ‘indirect’ talks to extend the ceasefire beyond its expiration date of April 22.
Israel-Lebanon talks: Trump announces 10-day ceasefire, taking Israel by surprise and backing Netanyahu into a corner. Calls from the international community to stop Israel’s assault on Lebanon intensified this week as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect, the death toll from Israeli attacks topped 2,000, and several incidents drew condemnation from international human rights bodies. Over the weekend, rights groups condemned Israel’s “domicide” – the wholesale destruction of entire villages in the portion of Lebanese sovereign territory Israel was claiming as a “security zone.” Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz ordered the destruction of these villages “in accordance with the model used in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in Gaza,” in order to “stop threats to communities in northern Israel,” raising the alarm that the ethnic cleansing playbook tested in Gaza is being implemented in Lebanon. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) expressed alarm at the killing of health care worker Hasan Badawi on Sunday from an Israeli strike, and what looked like a deliberate strike on a Red Cross facility on Monday. On the heels of the joint statement signed by dozens of states last week condemning the attacks on UN peacekeepers, including the deaths of 3 Indonesian nationals with the force, Britain and the European Union called for Lebanon to become part of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. European Commission president Ursula Van Der Leyen called on “all parties” to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and to implement a complete cessation of hostilities, saying, “You cannot have stability in the Middle East or the Gulf while Lebanon is in flames.” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who was in talks with Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, called for dialogue and a lasting ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, saying that “another escalation like in Gaza must be avoided at all costs.” On Monday, the head of Hezbollah, Naim Kassem, urged Lebanon to pull out of scheduled talks with Israel in Washington, calling “negotiations with Israel pointless.” Wafiq Safa, a high-ranking Hezbollah official, said Hezbollah will not abide by any agreements made between Lebanon and Israel.
On Tuesday, foreign ministers from seventeen countries signed a joint statement urging Israel and Lebanon to ‘seize the opportunity’ created by the first direct negotiations in nearly four decades between the two countries to “pave the way to bring lasting security for Lebanon and Israel as well as the region.” Israeli and Lebanese officials met in Washington, D.C. for more than two hours in talks moderated by Marco Rubio, in which Israel dismissed the idea of a ceasefire outright, urging Beirut to disarm Hezbollah. Lebanon, on the other hand, called for an end to the conflict, the right to return and humanitarian assistance measures for the over 1.1 million people who have been displaced in its territory. Critics have pointed out that Israel’s representative, Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, is a problematic figure to be carrying out these consequential talks given his close ties with far-right politics and settlement activism. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued to fight Israel, which continued to destroy villages and raze homes in southern Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israel stepped up its assault on Southern Lebanon, claiming to have struck more than 200 targets as IDF forces pushed north to expand its ‘security zone’ and issuing an evacuation threat for residents living south of the Zahrani River. Doctors without Borders reported near daily strikes in Southern Lebanon, overwhelming trauma facilities set up in the region. At least 20 people (including 14 civilians and four paramedics hit in a ‘triple-tap’ strike) were killed in Israeli attacks Wednesday, as UNHCR head Barham Salih called on the international community to help the more than 1 million displaced people in Lebanon, saying the country “does not deserve to be trapped in a cycle of violence.” Anger erupted within Lebanon as Israel pressed on with its invasion despite agreeing to undertake diplomatic talks; Hezbollah launched retaliatory strikes as lawmakers slammed Beirut for its “concessions” including withdrawing the army and ceding ground in the south to Israel, “squandering Lebanon’s political and military strength.” Recalling the ‘ceasefire’ of November 2024 and how Israel violated it almost daily with strikes and assassinations, Hezbollah called for a comprehensive end to the conflict, noting later in the day that Iran is using its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the U.S. to include Lebanon in the ceasefire deal.
Early on Thursday, Trump announced on Truth Social that later in the day, the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will be holding direct talks for the first time since 1991 – although no other information on the meeting, rumored to be a ‘phone call,’ was available, according to Lebanese officials. An Israeli security cabinet official updated a few hours later to say that Netanyahu would soon be speaking to Lebanese President Aoun “shortly,” although senior Lebanese officials reportedly were still in the dark. As the world waited for the outcome, Israeli aircraft destroyed Qasmiyeh Bridge, the last bridge on the Litani river left standing, thus cutting off the southern region Israel claimed for its ‘security’ zone from the rest of Lebanon. The UN warned that this would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as an estimated 100,000-150,000 people were still south of the Litani river and were now cut off from the rest of the country. UN peacekeepers in this part of the country have also been attacked by Israeli forces. Shortly thereafter, reports that President Aoun had spoken to Marco Rubio about a ceasefire surfaced as the U.S. reportedly tried to pressure Netanyahu into stopping the attacks. Then, at approximately 15:45 GMT, Trump announced on Truth Social that after “excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel,” the two leaders “will formally begin a 10-Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST.” He added that he would be inviting both Aoun and Netanyahu to the White House for the “first meaningful talks since 1983, a long time ago.”
The New York Times describes Netanyahu as having been ‘forced into a corner’ by the United States to accept a ceasefire with Lebanon, as Netanyahu faced a storm of criticism within Israel from hawks within his own party as well as the opposition. It was revealed that Lebanese President Aoun told Marco Rubio that he would refuse to get on Trump’s much-touted phone call with Netanyahu without a ceasefire in place, so the United States put the pressure on Netanyahu to agree despite the objections of his security cabinet. Sources within Israel told Al Jazeera that Cabinet members are “outraged and shocked” that the ceasefire appears to have been “forced upon Israel” like a “diktat,” showing the “immense pressure on Israel”; and that Israel now “has absolutely no idea how to explain this to its citizens, who will see this as yet another failure.” Celebrations broke out on the streets of Beirut and across Lebanon, with guns fired into the air just after midnight as the ceasefire took effect. Families displaced from the south began to move back toward their homes, even though both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army advised residents to hold off on moving back until they were certain that the ceasefire would hold. Trump confirmed that Hezbollah was included in the cessation of hostilities, and urged Hezbollah to “act nicely during this important period of time.” Hezbollah told Reuters that their compliance depended on if Israel held to its end of the deal; the group detailed its latest skirmish with Israeli forces, confirming the last rocket was fired 10 minutes before the truce took effect. Netanyahu retained the ‘right to self-defense,’ as did Hezbollah; Israel will also retain the right to keep troops in Southern Lebanon, and President Aoun said the withdrawal of troops would be a primary point of negotiation in subsequent talks, which Trump has offered to host at the White House. Netanyahu said the ceasefire presented a “historic opportunity,” but insisted the disarmament of Hezbollah would be a precondition. Lebanon agreed to “take meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups” in the country, while all parties recognized that Lebanon had the “exclusive responsibility for Lebanon’s sovereignty and national defense.” The Lebanese army claimed that Israel committed violations in the south, with some shelling of villages reported overnight, with Israel warning residents not to return south of the Litani River; Trump took to Truth Social on Friday to affirm that “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!” Iran welcomed the ceasefire, hailing it as part of “broader regional diplomatic understandings” established as a result of the war, and praised the “legendary resistance” of the Lebanese people and fighters against the “aggression and occupation of the Zionist regime.”
Bessent takes special aim at China, launching his “Operation Economic Fury” sanctions regime against Iran’s economic partners; Meloni cuts off defense aid to Israel, deepening NATO/EU schism from the United States. Although China has long been an ally of Iran, having formalized their strategic partnership for economic and geopolitical cooperation in 2021, the world’s largest economic power has largely stayed out of the current military conflict with Iran. It has chosen to intervene quietly from the sidelines in a bid to preserve its relations among all the parties in the conflict, providing indirect economic and diplomatic support to Iran in exchange for a steady supply of oil and safe passage rights through Iran’s ‘tollbooth’ on the Strait of Hormuz. This week, China made its most public interventions in the conflict so far in response to Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports, which Beijing slammed as “dangerous and irresponsible behavior” that risks further escalation and exacerbating tensions in the Gulf. As U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tankers continued to navigate the Strait despite the U.S. blockade, knowing the United States would not risk a military confrontation with China, Defense Minister Dong Jun affirmed China’s position, saying “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open to us.” President Xi Jinping made one of his strongest direct comments regarding the war Tuesday as he – knowing that a U.S. blockade on international waters would be considered an act of war according to international law, unlike Tehran’s claim to operate its ‘tollbooth’ within its own territorial waters – warned that the rule of law cannot be “used when convenient and discarded when not,” and the world should not “return to the law of the jungle.” The U.S. has taken notice and escalated its response in kind, shining a spotlight on the bigger geopolitical questions at stake in the Iran conflict in regards to China, the decline of U.S. hegemony, and the rise of an Eastern-centered, multipolar world order anchored by China and the BRICS nations.
Rumors in the U.S. press that have circulated since last week – in the New York Times, CNN, and the Financial Times among others – alleging that China was secretly arming Iran with anti-aircraft weaponry and satellite targeting systems, prompted Trump on Monday to threaten a 50% tariff against China if it provided Iran with weapons. Beijing denied the allegations, with Foreign Minister Guo Jiakun telling Military.com that the stories, based on U.S. intelligence reports, were “groundless smears and malicious accusations.” On Wednesday, April 15, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a direct shot at China with the launch of “Operation Economic Fury,” a new sanctions regime he described as the “financial equivalent of a bombing campaign.” Targeting the Iranian government’s financial assets and bank accounts, Bessent cautioned nations against buying Iranian oil, threatening to impose ‘secondary sanctions’ on countries that had Iranian cash in their accounts. Bessent singled out China, whose tankers have been coming and going through the Strait of Hormuz mostly unmolested, by announcing that the United States will begin blocking Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil. Calling China an “unreliable global partner” and accusing China of ‘hoarding’ oil amidst the global supply shock, Bessent said China “can get oil“ but not “Iranian oil.” (Current import and inventory data show that China is facing an oil supply crunch similar to other countries, though it is less impactful on its economy because of its well-integrated renewable energy infrastructure.) Earlier this month, Bessent revealed that the sanctions waiver briefly given to Iranian oil ‘already on the water’ was a gambit that aimed, by legitimizing the oil on the open marketplace, to redirect the oil away from China and towards U.S.-allied markets. Given that China’s cross-border payments system has been shattering records since March on the yuan-for-oil trade, it appears to many analysts that “Operation Economic Fury” is less about penalizing those who give material comfort to the enemy than a desperate gambit to save petrodollar hegemony; which entails not only undermining China but also herding Gulf state sovereign capital back into the flagging U.S. bond market. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov spoke out in support of Beijing, saying that Moscow can help make up for energy shortages in China resulting from the U.S. blockade.
China, preferring to play a “positive and constructive role” in the Middle East drama, told Reuters that fuel shortages being experienced around the world are a result of the “tense situation in the Middle East” and called for an “end to hostilities at once” to “prevent the turmoil from further impacting the global economy.” Its image as the ‘adult in the room’ in contrast to Trump/Netanyahu-fueled global chaos is attracting more of the United States’s alienated allies to hedge on the Eastern pole, moving away from the U.S./Israeli sphere of influence towards a multipolar interdependent order more reflective of the polycentric ‘Silk Road’ market cultures of Central Asia, anchored by the ‘Eurasian Golden Triangle’ of China, Russia, and Persia. President Xi received a visit from Emirati Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed this week, where he laid out China’s own four-point proposal for Middle East stability focused on national sovereignty, peaceful coexistence, rule of law, and a ‘holistic approach to development and security.’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an official visit to China to forge greater strategic coordination amidst the growing realignment of countries along a BRICS/Global South axis, said that Gulf countries understood that Iran would not have closed the Strait of Hormuz were it not for “American aggression,” and said it would stand behind Tehran when it came to the nuclear question, saying he hoped that the U.S. would be “realistic” and “refrain from continuing aggression” in the region that is “even hurting its allies.” President Erdoğan of Turkiye stressed that Israel and Netanyahu “must not be allowed to sabotage” the ceasefire process, saying, “If there is to be peace in our region, it will be despite the Zionist [Israeli] regime. If stability is achieved, it will again be despite the Israeli government.” Spanish President Pedro Sanchez was also in Beijing to meet with Xi for the fourth time this year as he urged China toward a greater show of leadership amidst the chaos in the Middle East.
Shifts on the European continent this week, most notably the dirty break between Trump and fellow right-populist Italian PM Giorgia Meloni over military aid to Israel and the Pope, underscored the geopolitical realignments taking place within the NATO alliance as the ‘automatic’ loyalties assumed by Western nations under the Bretton Woods era become less relevant to the present. Relations between Meloni, long considered one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe and an ideological ‘bridge’ between MAGA and Europe’s far right, and Trump have grown apart as Meloni, and the European far right in general, have felt the need to distance themselves from the geopolitical and economic blowback of Trump’s second term in order to remain politically viable at home. Increasingly reluctant to follow Trump’s dictates on trade, defense spending, and Greenland, Meloni finally lashed out after Trump began feuding with Pope Leo XIV this week over the war on Iran, calling his insults ‘unacceptable’ and backing the pontiff’s stance on war and peace. Trump snapped back, saying “She is the one who is unacceptable… because she doesn’t care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow up Italy in two minutes if it had the chance.” The Meloni government’s normally warm relations with Israel broke down last week over Israel’s indiscriminate attacks on Lebanon just hours after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced, during which Italian UN peacekeepers were also attacked by Israeli troops. On Tuesday, the government voted to suspend the renewal of its 20-year-old defense compact with Israel in a sharp and unprecedented reversal for a right-wing government long considered to be one of Israel’s staunchest allies. In an interview with Corriere della Serra this week, Trump said she seems “very different from what I thought,” adding, “I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage. I was wrong.” Left lawmakers also credit the robust social movements within Italy, which have mounted multiple general strikes over the genocide in Gaza, with moving the needle of public opinion toward an anti-war, anti-Zionist common sense in Italy that the right-populist government cannot ignore.
Meloni joins a host of European countries who have been reluctant or outright rejected Trump’s calls for coordinated action against Iran in substantive way, which has made Trump increasingly frustrated as countries deny airspace, bases, materiel, and other types of support for the Iran war. Belgium seized military components sent by the UK to Israel this week, which are a violation of its ban on the transit of any aircraft carrying military aid to Israel. Trump questioned the U.S. relationship with NATO again on Fox Business Sunday, saying: “Why are we spending billions of dollars a year on NATO, if they’re not going to be with us? If they’re not going to be with us on Iran, they’re not going to be with us on a much bigger subject than Iran,” While some are trying to salvage the NATO coalition, others see the future as far less certain, and are beginning to look beyond saving the dated alliance toward building a new European security architecture without the United States, as European countries shift away from appeasement towards opposition and the odds shorten for a scenario where Trump quits the alliance entirely.
Oil shock impacts to imminently set in, making widespread shortages felt in daily life; IMF cuts global growth outlook with war impacts at the forefront. In the coming days, the last oil tankers to have left the Strait of Hormuz will arrive at refineries in their destination countries, marking the last ‘batch’ of available oil to be shipped under ‘normal’ circumstances before the war on Iran disrupted the global oil supply; a critical turning point after which physical oil shortages will develop within weeks. Sometime on or after April 20, it is estimated, societies will begin to experience the impacts of the global oil shock in the form of imminent fuel shortages and/or rising prices for fuel, food, or just about any type of ‘critical goods’ produced with petrochemicals. The IEA released a report on Tuesday detailing how the war has triggered the “most severe oil supply shock in history,” warning that high prices and collapsing demand have the potential to produce conditions unparalleled in modern history. Asia, with its outsized dependence on Gulf oil, has been the first to be hit by the oil shock, implementing measures such as reduced work weeks and fuel rationing as a result; but with Asian refineries having moved to buy record amounts of oil from tankers normally bound for the United States and Europe in the first weeks of the war, the knock-on effects of the shortage are still to come, and will begin to hit daily life in the G7 countries within just a few weeks. The IEA estimates that Europe has “just about 3 weeks” of jet fuel left before widespread flight cancellations will be a necessity; jet fuel prices have already doubled around the world, leading airlines to increase ticket prices, baggage fees, and reduce available flights in places like Australia, the country with the longest supply chain and subsequent vulnerability to disruptions in global oil supply. A wave of fuel protests is underway in Ireland as hundreds of petrol stations have run out of fuel and prices have skyrocketed; farmers, transportation workers, and workers in other sectors directly affected by fuel shortages have blockaded roadways and Ireland’s sole refinery demanding relief from the government, causing a leadership crisis in Dublin. Societies that are further into the green energy transition than others will have the advantage of a safety net, at least for electricity and related industries; India nearly doubled its renewable energy capacity just in the first few months of 2026.
Food security will be one of the most pressing major concerns in the coming weeks, and not only in the Global South; some countries may be more or less resilient to the shock than others, given the degree of dependence upon food imports. The FAO has produced one of the most detailed projections of how the oil shock will impact national economies and food security, laying out its combined and uneven impacts on different regions. UNCTAD data suggests that within six to nine months, food prices may rise by as much as 20-40% driven by yield reductions of 20% or more; vulnerable communities (whose exposure to other factors such as climate disasters, fragile supply chains, or affordability crises) will disproportionately bear the brunt of the impacts of a food price shock estimated to be worse than that which caused food riots in dozens of countries during 2010-2011, which gave rise to the Arab Spring. In war-torn Sudan, food prices have already spiked by 70-80% in certain areas, causing unrest. In the Persian Gulf, U.S. military servicemembers are already feeling the pinch as the Postal Service has suspended delivery of military packages, leading to food shortages, rationing, and meals “worse than prison food” for troops serving on board carriers in the war zone. U.S. farmers, although not dependent on Gulf products for fertilizers, are still feeling the squeeze as input costs reflect global prices, putting critical inputs out of reach for some agricultural producers. Roughly one-quarter of U.S. farmers are behind on orders for spring planting as of April, and may miss the season altogether if shortages persist. How the food crisis will impact communities in the United States will depend on their social vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and price volatility as grocery store prices, particularly for cooking oil, are set to spike in the coming weeks. Tools such as the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, the USDA’s Food Access Research Atlas and Community Food Security Assessment Toolkit provide community groups with the means to evaluate community needs and formulate resilience actions in advance.
The International Monetary Fund released a report on Tuesday, April 14 with the results of a special task force modeling the potential effects to the global economy as a result of the war and oil supply crisis. The effects of the crisis, they warn, will be “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy-importing and low-income countries.” The highest impacts, the report concludes, will be “concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. Risks are decisively on the downside. A prolonged conflict, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, disappointment over [artificial intelligence]-driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could weaken growth and unsettle markets. High public debt and eroded policy buffers add vulnerability.” The data substantially “darkens the global economic outlook” and presented three possible scenarios, with researchers emphasizing that at this point in the conflict, the real situation is likely to follow the ‘adverse scenario’ detailed in the report, which cuts the global growth outlook from a pre-war estimate of 3.4% to just 2.5%, while inflation rises to 5.4%, setting up a consequential ‘stagflation’ scenario that is highly likely to trigger a global recession. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the researchers say, “it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels – and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure. Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries.”
Wells Fargo stock craters as it discloses exposure to private credit; life insurance and retirement annuity funds potentially most at risk. Following the Fed’s probe of commercial banks with links to the slowly exploding private credit bubble, it was found that at least three out of the six biggest commercial banks – Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase – collectively reported over $100 billion of exposure to the private credit sector. Wells Fargo, which also posted a disappointing Q1 earnings report, saw its stock plunge nearly 5% as it disclosed $36 billion in exposure to the private credit market, with Citigroup clocking in at $22 billion. JP Morgan Chase head Jamie Dimon, who had sounded the alarm about ‘cockroaches’ (insolvent institutions) in private credit months ago, reported on Chase’s $50 million exposure to private credit, although he confidently said he’s “not worried” about the risk. Traditional commercial banks are generally linked to the $1.8 trillion ‘direct lending’ segment of private credit, which provides direct loans to small or midsize companies, then leverages the debt through securitization. Traditional bank redemptions, as a rule, are paid out before retail investors, which may explain Dimon’s confidence that mass defaults may not cause too much damage to the banking sector. Still, Wall Street banks agreed to tighten up their lending standards this week in an attempt to inject confidence for investors. To hedge further against the apparent risk from defaults, JP Morgan and Barclays have begun issuing credit default swaps – the class of derivatives that became notorious during the 2008 crisis – against private credit funds held by Ares, KKR, and Blackstone.
More investors are now worried about the life insurance sector’s exposure to private credit, especially in annuities, which have exploded in popularity among Millennials and Gen Z workers who prefer annuities for retirement or savings due to their predictability for a fixed monthly income. The Financial Times notes that U.S. life insurance holdings of private credit grew by more than a fifth last year, bringing total exposure to an estimated 10-15% the sector’s total holdings. The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, a worrying sign of stress that could reverberate throughout the whole system and tank the savings of younger generations, especially if the coming inflationary shock from the global oil crisis leads to more cycles of business defaults, leading to excess redemption requests when investors flee to safer ground. The International Monetary Fund recently reviewed the crisis dynamics caused by investor exodus at large private credit funds such as Ares, KKR, and Blue Owl, and concluded that the instability appeared to be limited, with potentially “contained systemic impact” – a phrase that, CNN notes, was also used by then-Fed chair Ben Bernanke in 2007 to describe problems in the subprime lending sector before its meltdown nearly took down the global financial system. The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve announced efforts to research and bring more regulation and oversight to the private credit market, especially in terms of their business models and ties to the regulated banking sector.
Also in the news:
Pentagon quietly preparing for a strike on Cuba. Zeteo broke a story on Wednesday, April 15, revealing that the U.S. military is quietly preparing for a possible Pentagon-led operation against Cuba. According to two sources, the planning appears to have commenced after tensions escalated between the U.S. and Cuba shortly after the total oil embargo was leveled against the island nation. The Pentagon said in a statement that it “plans for a range of contingencies and remains prepared to execute the president’s orders as directed.” On Monday, as Trump addressed reporters on the war on Iran and received a McDonalds order that was Doordashed to the White House, Trump said, “We may stop by Cuba after we’re done with this [Iran].” Preliminary talks began Friday between Washington and Havana to explore a negotiated resolution to lift the embargo, although no progress has yet been made.
WWJD? Trump and Hegseth vs. Pope Leo XIV. Trump and Hegseth continued to pick a fight with the first American Pope over the Iran war this week, reflecting the conflict between two warring strands of Christian doctrine that Rev. Cornel West has termed “Imperial” (or “Constantinian”) Christianity versus “prophetic” Christianity, two opposing traditions West says have confronted each other throughout American history and culture. Pope Leo first responded to Pete Hegseth on Palm Sunday after Hegseth “prayed for victory” in Iran; the pontiff countered by saying God “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.” Last week, the Pope roundly condemned Trump’s threat to end Iranian civilization, saying such threats were “truly unacceptable.” The Chicago Pope said he was not making an attack on Trump or anyone, just expressing a critique of the “delusion of omnipotence” that is fueling the Iran wars. Trump launched a broadside at the Pope on Truth Social, calling him “terrible” and “weak on crime.” JD Vance questioned Leo’s understanding of St. Augustine’s ‘just war’ doctrine at a Turning Point USA event on Wednesday, after which Pope Leo, in an address to a community he once served as a young priest in Cameroon, made his strongest statement yet, saying: “Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth,” later lamenting that “The world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants.” In response, Trump pulled $11 million of grant funding from Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami.
Taiwan opposition party leader goes to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping on “mission of peace.” As the United States redirected its missile capacities away from China and towards Iran, making hawks in the military and intelligence services nervous about a potential takeover of Taiwan by China while the United States is otherwise distracted, the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, held a rare closed-door meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday. Cheng’s coalition is currently blocking Taiwan president Lai Ching-te’s proposed $40 billion defense budget shaped by the Trump Administration’s “porcupine defense” strategy for the island. Cheng said she undertook the “historic mission for peace” because given what has happened in places like Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran, she says “people do not want to see Taiwan end up like Ukraine.” She told reporters before her trip that Taiwan and China “are not destined for war, nor do they need to remain on the brink of military conflict.” Given that the United States is diverting both attention and military assets toward the Middle East, observers said “if Chairperson Cheng can have cordial photo ops with Xi Jinping, the KMT can use that to argue dialogue is more effective than deterrence.” Knowing that the diplomatic approach was not something that most Taiwanese leaders would think about taking, she affirmed that in these times, “If you truly love Taiwan, you will seize even the slightest chance, every possible opportunity, to keep Taiwan from being ravaged by war.”
MOVEMENT TRACKER
For the first time, Bernie Sanders’ bill to halt U.S. military aid for Israel is supported by a majority of Senate Democrats, signaling “massive cracks” in Israeli/AIPAC influence over Congress. In what many human rights and Palestine advocates marked as a critical “inflection point” in the ‘special relationship’ between the United States and Israel, Senator Bernie Sanders’ latest pair of bills to block arms sales to Israel had the support of a majority of Senate Democrats for the very first time. Amid rising anger at Israeli president Netanyahu, who is widely seen as having ‘lured’ Trump into a disastrous quagmire in Iran, 40 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted for Sanders’ bill to block the sale of approximately $450 million worth of bombs, military equipment, and bulldozers to Israel – the same type of bulldozer that killed U.S. peace activist Rachel Corrie in Gaza 23 years ago. Seven Democrats still crossed the aisle to vote with the Republican bloc to defeat the measure, but the fact that forty Senators were willing to buck the norm of unconditional support for Israel to cut off Netanyahu’s military lifeline felt to many like a ‘dam had broken’ in terms of getting through the wall of automatic uncritical support for Netanyahu’s regime that many had come to expect from Democrats in Congress, bringing party leaders more in line with the sentiments of the Democratic rank and file. Even some Senators who are usually staunch Israel supporters – like Sens. Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Adam Schiff – voted for the bill. Democrats also leveled their outrage at pro-Zionist stalwart and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who advocated for continuing arms shipments “against the supermajority of his own caucus and Democratic voters.”Hassan el-Tayyab, legislative director for Middle East policy at the Friends Committee on National Legislation, welcomed the shift as “not only a vote about arms sales, but a vote against further escalation, including a wider war with Iran.” The vote on the Sanders bills came right after the Senate also voted down a War Powers resolution on Iran, which Schumer voted for; Sen. Ed Markey said these two efforts were connected: “A vote to approve arms sales to Israel at this time would be seen as a message of approval for Trump and Netanyahu’s disastrous war against Iran. I will not send that message.” The latest Pew Center poll, released last week, shows that a record 60% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Israel, up 7% from last year and up 20 points since the start of the October 7 war on Gaza; in addition, a majority of people under 50 in both political parties view Israel in an unfavorable light. James Zogby, a pro-Palestine member of the DNC, reports that the issue of AIPAC dark money funding in the primaries was put to open debate among the membership for the very first time at last week’s DNC convention in New Orleans. Pro-Zionist lobbying group J Street, which positions itself as “pro-Israel, pro-peace,” announced that it would change its stance for the first time to oppose direct U.S. funding for arms sales to Israel, including Iron Dome missiles, signaling the need for “a “fundamental reassessment of the U.S.-Israel security relationship”.
Immigrant defense expands to include local and state policies. Local communities are fighting back – and winning – against the attempted buildout of a network of ICE facilities across the country. In community after community, what started as grassroots initiatives to protect immigrants in the face of ICE raids is now being codified into local and state policies that use the strength of their distributed powers to push back against federal overreach. Many municipalities such as Denver have passed ordinances or executive orders asserting local jurisdiction over public property to restrict federal activity, including the establishment of sanctuary spaces within civic buildings, bans on racial profiling, data protection from federal surveillance, and providing guidelines for private property owners who want to restrict federal access. States have enacted their own migrant-worker programs and policies to protect essential workers, such as healthcare workers, from being caught up in mass raids and/or deportation proceedings. School boards have created ‘newcomer programs’ and enacted policies that ensure all children can access education regardless of immigration status. State legislatures are increasingly introducing legislation to allow immigrants access to state healthcare and assistance services. The state of Massachusetts, as well as several cities in California, have established public immigrant defense legal funds to increase access to quality representation and advocacy in federal courtrooms. In February, New Mexico signed a landmark Immigrant Safety Act into law that provides comprehensive protection and support for immigrants, including the prohibition of 287(g) agreements between DHS and local law enforcement statewide. Oakland activists are weighing the benefits of fighting for local jurisdiction over the local airport in order to take action against military and DHS equipment that is moved through the facility’s air cargo hubs.
Latest Polls.
Approval ratings. Trump’s approval rating is hovering around a low point of 39%, lower than his rating was before the 2018 midterms that saw the Democrats take back the House in a “blue wave.” CNN data analyst Harry Enten shows how his approval ratings have cratered among nearly every demographic that contributed to his 2024 victory, including non-college educated white men (down 34 points since inauguration).
‘Double-Haters’ turn against both parties, favor Dems in Midterm Elections. A CNN poll reveals deep dissatisfaction among the electorate for both major parties – around one-quarter of American voters hold a negative view of both Republicans and Democrats (what CNN calls the ‘double-haters’). Among this group, voters would choose Democrats as the ‘lesser evil’ by a 31 point margin. Just 28% of voters hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, with the Republican Party faring little better at 32%. Of the ‘double-hater’ group, their most common reasons for disliking Democrats are viewing them as do-nothing (22% say this), saying they’re not standing up enough to Trump and the GOP (11%) or they’re too liberal (10%). Another 9% call them weak or spineless, with another 9% saying the party doesn’t care about people. Also among Democrats, a staggering 72% say that a divide over the nation’s approach to Israel is causing problems within the party. Their most common reason for disliking the GOP is what they see as the party’s failure to stand up to Trump (14%), followed by a sense that the party doesn’t care about people (10%), views about Trump more generally (8%), and a perception of the party as corrupt (8%).
Iran war fallout. According to a new Quinnipiac poll released April 13, 65% of voters blame President Donald Trump either a lot (51%) or some (14%) for the recent rise in gasoline prices, while 34% blame Trump either not much (11%) or not at all (23%). Among Democrats, 97% blame Trump either a lot (91%) or some (6%) for the recent rise in gasoline prices, while 1% blame Trump not much. 73% of Independents blame Trump either a lot (53%) or some (20%) for the recent rise in gasoline prices, while 25% blame Trump not much (10%) or not at all (15%). 22% of Republicans blame Trump for gas prices, while 76% blame him not much. Only 36% of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling the situation with Iran, while 58% disapprove. 40% of voters support the U.S. military action against Iran, while 53% oppose it, virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University’s March 25 poll. When asked about Trump’s threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, 64% of voters think this threat was not acceptable, while 28% think this threat was acceptable. 65% of voters say they would oppose the United States bombing power plants and other civilian infrastructure in Iran, while 29% say they would support it.
Upcoming Mass Actions.
Saturday, April 25: A coalition of organizations including Indivisible, MoveOn, Detention Watch Network, Disappeared in America, and more are calling for a Communities Not Cages Day of Action – a coordinated, nationwide mobilization against the Trump administration’s expansion of ICE warehouse detention centers across the country. Local activists can register their action with the network at this link.
Friday, May 1: The No Kings Coalition is calling for a nationwide ‘General Strike’, modeled on the day of action residents of Minnesota organized in January against the brutality carried out by federal immigration enforcement officials. This May Day, organizers are calling for “No business as usual, No work, no school, no shopping,” asking for people to show up and say “we’re putting workers over billionaires and kings.” More information as well as signups and community business canvassing toolkits can be found at maydaystrong.org.
