Countdown

Week of April 17-23, 2026

Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.

TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions

• Tensions mount as standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues between United States and Iran amid competing narratives as to each other’s readiness to resume war. After an initial announcement from the Iranian foreign ministry on Friday, April 18 declaring the Strait of Hormuz ‘fully open’ for traffic for the remainder of the ceasefire, Trump announced that the Strait is “open” and “Iran will never close it again” as U.S. negotiators appeared set to return to Islamabad for talks. Hours later, hopes for a clean ending to the war were dashed once again as Iran announced the Strait would “revert to its previous state” as Trump announced the United States had not given up their blockade of Iranian ports. Two Indian-flagged tankers were fired upon by the IRGC as they attempted to traverse the strait, as the armed forces announced the strait was once again “under the strict management and control” of the IRGC, and will remain so until “America allows full freedom of navigation for vessels leaving Iran.” The Iranian Security Council said it considered the ongoing U.S. blockade to be a breach of the ceasefire; and Iran’s Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement warning that the navy was prepared to inflict ‘new bitter defeats’ on the U.S. and Israel if they escalated. Trump had said previously that Iran had agreed to a nuclear deal where they would suspend their uranium enrichment program and give up their stockpile to the United States, claims that Iran dismissed as a ‘non-starter’. Although he continued to say talks were “going very well,” Trump said Iran “can’t blackmail us.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told Associated Press that Iran will not go to Islamabad for talks with the U.S. as long as Washington refused to abandon “maximalist demands” on key issues, including the nuclear program.Trump convened an emergency meeting at the Situation Room on Saturday to discuss the situation, calling in JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, Susie Wiles, Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Gen. Dan Caine. The U.S. edition of The Mirror published a report from ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson that at that meeting, Gen. Caine intervened to block Trump from accessing the ‘nuclear codes,’ but that report remains unverified. On Sunday, Trump announced that he would be sending a delegation headed by Vance to Islamabad for talks starting on Monday. Iran state media aired Sunday night that the Iranian delegation would not attend, citing “Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire”. Trump announced that night that the United States had seized an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz which was on its return trip from China; boasting that “we have full custody of the ship and we’ll see what’s on board.” The Iran-flagged ship, named ‘Touska,’ was carrying medical supplies for dialysis patients, according to the Red Crescent. The IRGC responded by warning that they would “retaliate against this armed piracy by the U.S. military,” raising fears that the ceasefire would break before the Wednesday deadline. Drones were reportedly fired at U.S. ships, though no damage was reported. Trump said this was the “last chance” for Iran to secure a deal before the ceasefire expires, and threatened once again to “blow up the whole country” by targeting its infrastructure if they refused. In Yemen, the Houthis, allied with Iran in the ‘axis of resistance,’ said they would “return to war” if the U.S. or Israel resume aggressions against Iran, matching “escalation for escalation.” Meanwhile, talks continued behind the scenes between Iranian and Pakistani negotiators, with the Iranians focusing on three key demands before re-entering into talks with the United States: an end to the war in Lebanon, an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and agreement to discuss the partial or full release of Iran’s frozen assets.

  As the clock on the ceasefire ticked down to its expiration date on Wednesday, rumors began circulating, mainly among Western and Israeli media outlets, that a rift had developed within the Iranian government between the IRGC and the negotiators, particularly Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had made the announcement on Friday regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An unverified radio clip began circulating on social media portraying an IRGC official calling Araghchi an “idiot,” and a narrative began to surface that Araghchi and the chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf, had been ‘sidelined’ or even that Ghalibaf was in danger of being removed by the more ‘hardline’ elements within the IRGC. U.S. officials told the media that "we thought they were negotiating with the right people, they had reached the cocktail of what they had agreed to… what happened is the Iranian team went back and the IRGC and those kinds of people said 'oh, no, no. You don't speak for us.’” Another official said “we don’t know who’s in charge, and neither do they.” Some pundits went so far as to say that IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi had taken over in Tehran and was now de facto running the country. Trump bolstered the narrative as he announced he would extend the ceasefire on Tuesday, saying that the Iranian government was “seriously fractured” amidst “CRAZY” infighting, and that he would extend the ceasefire per Pakistan’s request to give them time to come up with a “unified” proposal.

  Meanwhile, on Iranian state media and elsewhere, the ‘sidelined’ negotiators continued making public statements on behalf of the government: IRGC veteran Araghchi praised the military’s successes on Sunday, Iran’s Army Day, and stated his resolve to continue “interaction, synergy, and integration” with the IRGC, while Ghalibaf wrote on X on Monday citing Trump’s erratic and contradictory behavior, as well as the Administration’s shifting goalposts, as the main reason Iran would not come to the table, saying that “unconstructive & contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message; they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.” He reiterated on Wednesday that reopening the Strait would be “impossible” as long as the United States maintains the blockade, which Iran considered to be a breach of the ceasefire. Iranian commentators Mohammad Marandi, who accompanied the negotiation team on the first round of talks in Islamabad, and University of Tehran professor Hasan Amadhian both denied the idea that the regime was fractured, citing strong structural safeguards that had kept unity within the regime. Trita Parsi of Responsible Statecraft echoed their analysis, saying that the war and the assassinations of much of the pre-existing leadership had brought “different factions of the leadership” together and are “more aligned now than they were before the war,” and “because this is a much smaller circle … this circle is more united about the strategy they use in the war.” On Wednesday, the leaders of the three branches of government – President Pezheskian, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei – issued joint statements dismissing Trump and Western media’s classification of Iranian officials as extremists and moderates, asserting that all citizens in Iran identify as "Iranians" and "revolutionaries." Araghchi noted that Iran’s state institutions “continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline”. Their statements were backed up by Mojtaba Khamenei, who asserted further that "Due to the remarkable unity created among compatriots, a fracture has occurred in the enemy."

  Trump continued to assert that the regime was hobbled by infighting and that the U.S. “has total control of the Strait of Hormuz” into Thursday as Iranian forces seized two container ships, broadcasting video of the actions to the world; and two critical reports cast a cloud of skepticism over the U.S. military’s capability and readiness to escalate the war if diplomacy failed. On Tuesday, the Pentagon briefed Congress on the minesweeping operations in the Strait, saying that removing the mines could take up to six months; and an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that showed the U.S. military has already spent up to 45-50% of its missile defense capability in the war to date; warning that with a 3-5 year manufacturing timeline, the U.S. military risks running out of missiles, especially if another war breaks out (eyes are on Taiwan or South Korea, from where the Pentagon withdrew their missile caches last month to supplement the Iran front). U.S. forces expanded operations into the Indian Ocean on Tuesday, capturing a tanker it believed to be smuggling Iranian oil; and shortly after Iranian forces boarded the container ships, Gen. Caine announced that another tanker, which the Pentagon claimed was a “stateless, sanctioned vessel,” had been boarded by U.S. Special Forces on suspicion that it was carrying Iranian oil to China. Reports that the IRGC was laying new mines in the Strait prompted Trump to issue an order over Truth Social authorizing the U.S. military to “shoot to kill” any boat caught in the Strait laying mines, with “no hesitation.” CNN reported on Thursday that the U.S. military was developing plans to concentrate bombing in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing ‘dynamic targeting’ in order to take out the small, fast boats Iran uses to maintain the blockade in case the talks fall apart. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz signalled on Thursday that the IDF was looking to the U.S. for a “green light” to kill the remaining members of the Khamenei family, including Mojtaba. The IRGC issued a statement saying that the military is “ready to create achievements and surprises beyond the enemy’s understanding and calculations, using new cards on the battlefield.” Late on Thursday, explosions were heard over Tehran as air defenses were activated against several drones. The IRGC later clarified that it was part of a defensive drill, but the escalations on Thursday have raised fears that the ceasefire will not hold for much longer. As Trump warned Tehran that “the clock is ticking” to make a deal with Washington, a senior advisor to Khamenei responded, saying that the “sound of the broken bones of U.S. power will echo from the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman to the entire world." 

  As the global economy hung in the balance, Trump exuded nonchalance when asked by reporters about a timeline for restarting talks, saying “don’t rush me,” and pointed to the ongoing ceasefire as a sign of progress, saying “we stopped a little early, because they wanted some peace… they’re in turmoil, so we thought we’d give them a little chance to get some of their turmoil resolved.” He also claimed to be under “no pressure” to end the war quickly, and panned news stories that portrayed him as being under “time pressure,” saying, “No – you know who’s under pressure? [Iran is], because if they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode.”  On Friday, April 24, Foreign Minister Araghchi announced his departure from Tehran to meet with Pakistani, Omani, and Russian officials in Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow. As Fox News reported that Iran had “requested an in-person meeting” with the U.S. government, Trump announced he would be sending Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Islamabad to restart talks on Saturday, saying that Vance and the rest of the delegation would be “on standby” to fly to Islamabad if necessary. However, Araghchi indicated that Iran had no interest in meeting with the U.S. delegation, instead saying that their “observations will be conveyed through Pakistan.” Iranian state media outlet Tasnim noted that Western media is reporting that Araghchi will meet with Witkoff and Kushner “despite the fact that, at present, no negotiations with the Americans are on the agenda at all, and Mr. Araghchi’s trip to Islamabad is not for talks with the United States"; as Middle East Spectator called Trump’s bid “desperate.”  Witkoff and Kushner are scheduled to arrive for “direct talks”  on Saturday morning, an Iranian journalist in Islamabad was quoted as saying, “We have no idea why they're coming. Araqchi will likely already have left by the time they arrive.” 

• Europe feels the squeeze, prepares to ‘divorce’ from United States as Ghalibaf targets U.S. bond market.The scramble for alternative sources of oil and energy is redrawing the geopolitical map as we know it, according to author Daniel Yergin, who spoke to Bloomberg this week on the political calculus driving the shifting relations between various countries and regions. Following on from their summit last week, the UK and France called a new meeting of strategists from over 30 countries to discuss how the Strait of Hormuz can be kept open once a lasting ceasefire agreement has been established. So far, European countries have resisted Trump’s call to open the Strait by force; as an alternative, the effort would be “defensive in nature” and attempt to “translate the diplomatic consensus into a joint plan to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Strait and support a lasting ceasefire.” The plans come amid a deepening rift between the United States and the European NATO countries, which have come under increased fire from Trump and Hegseth as the United States gets stymied in the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth lashed out at U.S. allies in Europe and Asia Friday for not joining the U.S. in its war campaign against Iran, and for not opening the Strait of Hormuz by force.

• Oil/gas supply crisis sends countries scrambling for alternative supply chains as ‘perfect storm’ for global famine brews. Despite Trump’s social media bluster, the clock is definitely ticking on the global economy as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. With over 600 million barrels of lost oil supply, the Iran war is causing “the biggest energy crisis in history,” the IEA warned as the scale of the current energy shortage surpassed all three prior energy shocks (1973, 1979, 2022) combined. A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that crude oil production in the Gulf is down 57% from pre-war levels, a shortfall of about 14.5 million barrels per day; and the IEA said that global natural gas supply – even if the war ended tomorrow – will remain impacted until at least 2028, with an estimated cumulative shortfall of around 120 billion cubic meters of LNG between 2026 and 2030. The global crisis affects countries unevenly, differing by geography, timing, foreign oil dependence and economic conditions; the IMF, which maintains a tracker of impacts by country, notes that poor, debt-laden countries in the Global South were hit first and hardest by the squeeze, especially in Asia and now Sub-Saharan Africa; but no country, including the United States, will escape serious impacts as the effects of disruption reverberate throughout global supply chains for nearly every industrially produced commodity in the modern world – from food and pharmaceuticals to batteries, shaving cream, microchips and condoms. Economists say that even if the war ends tomorrow, oil markets may take months or even years to recover, meaning impacts will be severe and long term.

  The most dire consequence of the energy shock, experts warn, will be experienced in the global food system, where oil shortages – colliding with “the worst debt crisis on record” and the climate crisis, with a ‘Super El Niño’ predicted to bring severe drought to large swathes of South and Southeast Asia, Northeast Brazil, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia – may catalyze a “perfect storm” for famine that triggers a global hunger catastrophe. A UN report released this week has documented the strain food systems are already under due to extreme heatwaves around the globe; and the longer the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz lasts during the planting season, plantings could get pushed back into the risky summer months or may not take place at all. The closure of the Strait has choked off one-third of urea and one-fifth of ammonia exports, the key ingredients in nitrogen-based agricultural fertilizer; and the Gulf accounts for nearly half of all global sulfur exports, the key ingredient in phosphate-based fertilizer. In addition to the supply shortage, the cost of shipping as well as the physical disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait are also complicating factors, with many Asian buyers desperate for oil outbidding lower-price cargoes like grain for shipping contracts, leading to rising freight costs and delays for food shipments. A survey of U.S. farmers by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70% of U.S. farmers are unable to afford all the fertilizer they need for this season. In Southeast Asia’s rice belt, smallholder farmers are struggling to find both fertilizer and fuel to power water pumps and threshing machines; many are being forced to leave the crops in the ground, leading to an estimated yield loss of 10% in the Philippines and about 19% in Thailand, two of the top producers of a staple food for more than half the world’s population. Input costs for food and beverage companies are already up 7.9% in March from an already high 4.6% in February. UK government documents leaked this week revealed that officials have been quietly preparing for a “worst case scenario” of food shortages and a possible mass hunger event in the British Isles. With the fuel shortages, biofuels have also come back into the conversation about alternatives, although its widespread adoption may put it in competition against food for land, water and fertilizer.Air travel is particularly affected, as fuel prices have basically doubled since the beginning of the war and airlines have been forced to make major adjustments. Jet fuel prices have also risen so quickly that airlines are struggling to recover the heightened costs with increased fares. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines was forced to ask Trump this week for a bailout to cover its shortfalls; Trump is considering a $500 million bailout package in which the federal government will essentially nationalize the airline, owning 90% of company stock. Canada has cut all flights to New York’s JFK airport for six months, not only reflecting the need to save fuel but also the geopolitical decoupling of Canada from the United States, spurred by Trump’s threats of annexation. Europe, which has gotten the biggest percentage of its jet fuel from the Gulf, has only “about six weeks of jet fuel left,” throwing summer travel plans into chaos as Lufthansa canceled an unprecedented 20,000 short-haul flights within Europe, saving its quota for intercontinental flights. The U.S. released another 79.7 barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this week, mainly headed to European refineries, which are “working flat-out” to produce as much jet fuel as possible to keep the mode of travel alive. The EU signaled it may consider requiring countries to hold stockpiles of jet fuel, and potentially redistribute it based on regional needs, as well as look for alternative fuel sources. The sulfur shortage is also affecting the production of other primary materials, such as copper, naphtha and aluminum, which is facing a ‘black swan’ supply shock event that industry experts say is the “largest single supply shock a base ⁠metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era." In the coming weeks, the effects will make themselves felt in larger economies like China and the United States, likely across the food service, travel and lodging industries; both from gasoline prices that have jumped roughly 30%, from below $3 to over $4 a gallon, and from “falling equity values that influence spending decisions among wealthier households.” Delivery delays and input costs can lead to factory slowdowns, shedding even more jobs in an already weak economy at the same time that inflation skyrockets the cost of living, exacerbating the affordability crisis. The United Nations has warned that the current shock to date could put up to 30 million people around the world into poverty.

• The Scramble for alternatives: energy-starved nations in Asia and Europe look to renewables and the old Silk Road for relief. The oil shock is, perhaps ironically, catalyzing the renewable energy transition and global pivot from fossil fuels to a degree that climate change awareness alone had been unable to achieve. IEA Director Fatih Birol told the Guardian that the war and resulting energy shock has “changed the fossil fuel industry for ever, turning countries away from fossil fuels to secure energy supplies.” He also said there is no going back after this experience: “The vase is broken, the damage is done – it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. This will have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come.” Next week, over 50 nations will gather in Colombia to discuss a “potential standalone treaty to manage fossil-fuel phaseout while protecting workers and financial systems.” Across Europe, sales of rooftop solar systems have tripled as residents convert amidst surges in gas-fired electricity prices, saving residents up to 100 million euros per day in the aggregate. U.S. utilities continue to resist the renewable energy transition, although given the surge in global demand as countries look to Gulf alternatives for LNG and petroleum products, U.S. producers are being strained to the limit in terms of output. Trump is pushing to increase output as he sells the U.S. abroad as an alternative to Gulf production, but coal producers as well as LNG and shale companies find themselves squeezed between his mandate and capacity issues, increasing costs of production and, for frackers, the fear of overproduction and industry shakeout when the war ends and oil prices settle back down. Tensions also exist within Europe between those who espouse the increased adoption of alternative renewable energies and officials in Brussels who see it as an opportunity to expand gas production and drill in the Arctic. The IEA has published a tracker of various national policy responses as the crisis unfolds.

  With maritime routes blocked and Iran poised to likely keep some type of long-term control over the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern oil/gas exporters and their Asian customers are looking again to the Eurasian heartland and its potential to once again become a backbone of trade, just as it had been on the Great Silk Road before 1492. Middle Eastern energy exporters are beginning to accelerate plans for overland pipeline projects whose complex cost-benefit calculus had previously been a barrier but are now looking much more attractive in the face of a chokepoint crisis. While China has begun building some infrastructure via the Belt and Road Initiative, the Central Asian “Stans” – energy rich Kazakhstan, gold producer Uzbekistan, natural gas giant Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, abundant in rare earth metals – are the political linchpins of the old Silk Road that not only offer a critical overland energy corridor that can bypass shipping chokepoints in the Middle East, but can also leverage access to their own vast reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals essential to the modern world to become key players in a multipolar order. The former Soviet republics now find themselves in a position to be able to leverage competing interests while “avoiding being forced to pick a side in great power conflicts.” On the northwest end of the route is Turkey, which President Erdoğan has been promoting as a stable alternative to the Persian Gulf. It is preparing to reopen its border with Armenia for the first time in 32 years, laying the groundwork for the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), a joint project written in to the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan connecting Europe to the critical oil port at Baku via the Middle Corridor. IEA head Fatih Birol has proposed a new pipeline connecting Iraq’s oil fields in Basra to Turkey’s oil port at Ceyhan as another overland alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for accessing European markets.

• ‘Dirty ceasefire’ between Israel and Lebanon extended as Israel continues attacks, occupation in South Lebanon; Journalist killed in a ‘double-tap’ strike. Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire on Thursday, even as Israeli forces continued to attack whomever they perceived to be a ‘threat’ in South Lebanon. The IDF and Hezbollah, which is not a party to the ceasefire, continued to exchange attacks despite the ceasefire’s extension. Netanyahu claims that Hezbollah has continued to attack despite the ceasefire, while Hezbollah maintains they attack only in retaliation for Israel’s violations of the ceasefire. Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Katz have asserted Israel’s right under the ceasefire agreement to “act in self-defense” against whatever they perceived as a “threat.” Over the 8 days that the ceasefire has been in effect, Israeli forces have continued to attack targets and demolish buildings in southern Lebanon, and deny residents of most of the 55 villages south of the Litani river the right to return to their homes. The IDF insisted that the 5-10km “buffer zone” inside Lebanese territory is necessary to protect Israeli citizens in the north, as they continued to displace residents and depopulate the southern region behind what they designated as a Gaza-style “yellow line” at the Litani river.  On Thursday, IDF strikes in Yatar wounded two people, including a child; and later in the day launched an attack on a car, killing three. Haaretz reports that Israel has killed 15 people in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect.

  In retaliation for the killings and the bulldozing of homes in the villages, Hezbollah continued to launch rockets at Israeli assets, including a Humvee and several drones. They also condemned the IDF’s demolition of buildings in the southern villages, considering it to be a violation of the ceasefire. Israel has intensified its destruction of buildings and homes in villages and towns south of the Litani river, and on Friday began pushing into Deir Aames, issuing evacuation warnings after Hezbollah downed an Israeli drone near the area. CNN released comparative photos showing the scale of the destruction behind the IDF’s new ‘yellow line’ in southern Lebanon, with buildings nearly ground to dust. Lebanese officials condemned the destruction, as Hezbollah claimed responsibility for retaliatory attacks into northern Israel under its right to defend Lebanese citizens. Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research documented 428 homes destroyed by the IDF during the ceasefire, with an additional 50 destroyed since the extension went into effect. Lebanese media also documented bulldozers operating in the western city of Khiam in what they called a “scene that suggests an attempt to completely erase the town’s identity.” Defense minister Katz said the area was “cleared of terrorists and weapons and is empty of citizens, and will continue to be cleared of terrorists’ infrastructure, including the destruction of houses in Lebanese villages that border (Israel) and have become terrorists outposts in every sense.”  French president Macron condemned the destruction, saying Israel must “renounce its territorial ambitions” in Lebanon and that it is the responsibility of the Lebanese government, not the Israelis, to disarm Hezbollah; in turn, he took Hezbollah to task for “dragging Lebanon into this war,” and urged them to “stop targeting Israel and attempting to replace the state’s prerogatives.”

  More IDF actions drew international outcry this week after prominent Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil was killed in an apparent ‘double-tap’ strike on Wednesday. Khalil and her photographer, Zeinab Faraj, were reporting on the war in the southern Lebanon village of al-Tiri when a strike hit near their car; they ran into a nearby home to take cover, which was then destroyed by a second strike. Rescue workers were able to reach Faraj, who was seriously wounded, but another Israeli strike on the house prevented them from retrieving Khalil’s body until hours later. Khalil was known for her intrepid reporting style, and members of the journalist community said that Israel “definitely knew who she was, and targeted her.” Lebanese President Aoun condemned Israel for its “deliberate and consistent targeting of journalists,” and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the nature of the ‘double-tap’ strike, preventing rescue workers from reaching her, amounted to a “war crime.” Khalil is the ninth journalist to be killed in Lebanon this year. Israel has also escalated its attacks on medical workers in southern Lebanon; Lebanese officials condemned a “quadruple-tap” attack on a group of medics from the Islamic Health Association who were struck at least twice before managing to get their colleagues into ambulances, only to have the ambulances struck, killing all of them. The Lebanese Health Ministry says 91 medical staff have been killed in the conflict so far. Outrage spread through the Christian world this week following the release of a photo showing an IDF soldier smashing a statue of Jesus on a crucifix with a sledgehammer. Following the backlash, Netanyahu said the IDF soldiers had been removed from duty and jailed for 30 days, saying the soldiers’ conduct “completely deviated from IDF orders and values.” Two weeks ago, the IDF destroyed the 2000-year-old Shrine of Samoun al-Safa near Tyre, a UNESCO-protected sacred site for Christians and Muslims that is believed to be the burial site of Saint Peter the Apostle.

• Pentagon in chaos as Hegseth clashes with generals, fires Navy Secretary; cover-up obscures true cost of Iran war. On Wednesday, Navy Secretary John Phelan made an abrupt exit from the Pentagon after just 13 months in the position. Media sources revealed that Phelan, a personal friend of Trump who lives down the street from Mar-A-Lago and is a major GOP donor, was fired by Pete Hegseth after months of infighting over how to revitalize the Navy’s outdated shipbuilding program. The New York Times reports that the split was mainly over differences of approach; while Hegseth and Deputy Secretary Stephen Feinberg appeared to favor a high-tech approach, including submarines, stealth craft and AI-controlled unmanned attack platforms, Phelan put all his effort into what Trump called the “Golden Fleet” and a new “Trump Class” of battleship. Phelan’s ouster came one day after the Navy unveiled the battleship in their $377 billion budget proposal, which officials said was not coordinated with Hegseth but taken over his head directly to Trump, which made Hegseth angry. Lawmakers in both parties raised alarms about the removal of a top Navy official at the time that the United States is embroiled in a naval standoff with Iran. Ex-military leaders also speculate that Trump, who had grown dissatisfied with the slow pace of the shipbuilding program, approved the firing because he is frustrated with the way the war is going. Phelan is the 21st high-ranking official that Hegseth has purged from the military’s top ranks since he took office, which the American Enterprise Institute characterized as “unprecedented,” lamenting that Hegseth has “squandered centuries of talent” at the same time that the Administration decided to lean into multiple military engagements. The one experienced leader ‘left standing’ is Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who has clashed bitterly with Hegseth but enjoys a kind of immunity due to his long friendship with JD Vance.

  The petty “mean girls” infighting between Hegseth and the Pentagon’s top brass obscures more serious problems the Department is experiencing at the same time that it is actively prosecuting a war that the United States appears to be losing. While Phelan had no responsibility over current operations in the Gulf, he was in charge of procurement, which may complicate the process of ordering new Tomahawk and Patriot missiles to replenish the falling U.S. stock of munitions in the Iran war. It continues to keep Iran war casualty numbers secret, leading people to believe that many more than 13 troops have been killed or wounded than is publicly known; the Pentagon scrubbed 15 names off of the wounded list this week in what one official called the “definition of a cover-up” and a “gross undercount” of U.S. troop casualties. Survivors of the Iranian strike on a forward operating base in Kuwait in March, which killed six servicemembers, told CBS News that the Pentagon wasn’t being truthful with its account of events, and cited serious logistical mistakes that turned the incident into deadly chaos. This week, the heads of the National Guard and Armed Forces Reserves testified to the House Appropriations Committee and warned that a combination of “rising mission demands, aging equipment and funding uncertainty are straining readiness across the force” as their operational role expands. At the same hearing, OMB director Russ Vought refused to release to lawmakers an estimate of how much the war on Iran is costing taxpayers. “I don’t have a ballpark for you,” is all he said. Pentagon officials are nonetheless navigating a climate of fear because of the “petty, high-school or middle-school drama" roiling among the top ranks. One army judge expressed worry that the new crop of officers and military lawyers may be “trying to reverse-engineer a legal justification for whatever the administration asked” of them. “The Hegseth mindset is victory at all costs,” laments a senior military official. “You’re seeing a real conflict in everything that we thought we stood for as a military.”

MOVEMENT TRACKER

• ‘Veterans Against Fascism’ protest at the U.S. Capitol results in mass arrests, as 66 veterans and family members of military personnel were arrested in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday during a protest against the war on Iran, shown in a video released by Reuters here. The protest was organized by five veterans’ and advocacy groups: About Face, the Center on Conscience and War (CCW), Veterans for Peace, Fayetteville Resistance Coalition, and 50501 Veterans. Among those arrested were the CCW’s Executive Director Mark Prysner and conscientious objector Tyler Romero, who served four years in the Army and seven years in the Navy respectively, per a press release from the organization. U.S. Capitol Police stated that all 66 “were arrested for D.C. Code § 22–1307 – Crowding, Obstructing, or Incommoding – for illegally protesting inside the Cannon House Office Building.” A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week indicates that around 59% of Americans disapprove of the way Trump is handling foreign policy, while a concurrent AP-NORC poll shows a 67% disapproval rate for his handling of Iran.

• AI and datacenter resistance continues to gain traction in the United States. A piece from Truthout this week spotlighted the work of activists in Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Arizona, discussing the strategies used and lessons learned from their work resisting data center construction in their local communities. Monterey Park recently became the first city in California to ban data centers within city limits in a unanimous council vote under community pressure. Recent polling from Quinnipiac University indicates that around 65% of Americans oppose data center construction in their own communities, while Pew research indicates that Democrats are significantly more likely to believe that data centers negatively impact the environment and human quality of life than their Republican counterparts; many speculate that the question of data centers will be a “fault line” issue in upcoming Dem primaries. Maine governor Janet Mills vetoed on Friday a popular bill that would have placed a statewide moratorium on new data center construction until November 2027, while stating that she had instead signed a bill that would prohibit data centers from receiving state business development tax exemption programs.

• Backlash to the controversial Warner Bros – Paramount merger simmers in Hollywood and the broader film industry. Jane Fonda’s Committee for the First Amendment held a rally outside WBD’s New York headquarters Wednesday morning urging shareholders to vote against the merger, with speakers including New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and former NYC comptroller Brad Lander. NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani also urged the shareholders to vote ‘no,’ saying the merger could put thousands of jobs at risk, while Sens. Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren, along with other Dem lawmakers, have also made statements against it. A Hollywood petition against the merger has reached over 4,000 signatures, with signatory Mark Ruffalo warning that the deal could have “devastating” effects on the media industry. Shareholders voted in favor of the merger on Thursday; Elizabeth Warren called the merger an “antitrust disaster” in a post on X, urging that “we need to keep up this fight.” She and Future Film Coalition’s #BlockTheMerger movement both say that this issue is not yet a done deal, urging State Attorneys General to issue a preliminary injunction challenging the merger. After the deal was signed, several congress members joined a protest on the National Mall outside an Ellison-hosted Trump dinner that garnered criticism as many see it as indicative of a “cozy” relationship between the President and the Ellisons.

• Resistance on the Docket: Arrested ICE protestors being acquitted at high rates. Charges against individuals arrested at ICE-related protests are repeatedly falling apart, often due to video evidence conflicting with arresting officers’ statements, according to a recent report by ProPublica and Frontline. The reporters found over 300 protesters and bystanders who were arrested in recent immigration sweeps, and states that, “In more than a third of the cases, prosecutors quickly dismissed charges that couldn’t be substantiated, refused to file charges at all, or lost at trial. The tally of cases that end this way will likely climb as many of the arrests remain unresolved.” The report states that although many charges end up dropped, these arrests still have a chilling effect on free speech. A report from the Intercept this week covered the trial and subsequent acquittal of Renea Gamble, a Fairhope, Alabama woman who recently went viral when she was arrested while wearing a giant inflatable penis costume at a No Kings rally. Again reporters found that statements from arresting officers were directly contradicted by video evidence, while also noting that “much of the trial seemed aimed at inoculating the city from a lawsuit.” Four of six people arrested in January for holding a sit-in in San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria’s office demanding that the city cease cooperating with ICE enforcement activities have been awarded misdemeanor diversion, which could result in eventual dismissal of their cases, according to an NBC report. The two other individuals arrested remain charged with misdemeanor trespassing.