Top Gun
Week of July 17-23, 2026
Published in conjunction with The Nation magazine, TRACKING THE CRISIS is a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
Iran War escalation: United States continues to bomb Iran, targeting civilian infrastructure; Iranian retaliatory attacks kill 4 U.S. soldiers; Houthis blockade Bab el-Mandeb Strait; U.S. signs nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. Escalating U.S. strikes on Iran have continued into their 12th consecutive day as of Thursday, July 23, aimed at crippling civilian infrastructure, while the IRGC has continued to strike U.S. assets in neighboring Gulf countries, threatening to unleash ‘full scale war’ as it escalated to targeting desalination and energy infrastructure in Kuwait. Oil prices have risen back to wartime levels, edging above $98 on Thursday as the effects of a new Houthi blockade on the critical Bab el-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea are beginning to be felt and a new front opens in what is rapidly developing into a wider regional conflict.
On Friday, July 18, two U.S. servicemembers were ‘killed in action’ when Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck two Jordanian air bases hosting U.S. military assets. The Pentagon later identified the slain soldiers as 19-year-old Private Isabella Gonzalez from Texas, and 25-year-old 1st Lieutenant James Feehan from Hawaii. A third servicemember, later identified as 28-year-old Sergeant Angel Rampersad from New York, was confirmed as killed in action on Tuesday after having been reported missing after Friday’s attack. Also on Tuesday, the Pentagon confirmed a fourth servicemember, 30-year-old Michael Emmanuel Swinton of North Carolina, was killed on Sunday, July 19 during a ‘controlled detonation’ of a downed Iranian drone in Iraq, bringing the official U.S. death toll from the war to 18. The Pentagon also admitted on Tuesday that over 100 U.S. servicemembers have been injured since the resumption of hostilities began in early July, as analysts estimate a total of 400-500 soldiers have been injured since the war began.
Trump responded to Friday’s attacks the next day, calling the servicemembers’ deaths a “very sad thing” while claiming that “every single” U.S. servicemember would “fight to the death” to “never allow” Iran to have a nuclear weapon. On Saturday night, CENTCOM launched a new series of air strikes to “zero in and punish” Iran for the deaths, taking out communications infrastructure in Bandar Abbas and other cities in Southern Iran as well as striking the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Iranian media also reported that U.S. attacks killed at least 7 civilians in attacks on Hormozgan province, also damaging water desalination plants and causing a “severe water shortage” to approximately 10,000 people across 20 villages in Jask county.
As Iran’s UN envoy, Amir-Saeid Iravani, condemned the attacks on civilian infrastructure including “ports, transportation networks, communications facilities, logistics hubs, radar installations, coastal defense systems and other infrastructure indispensable to the civilian population” in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the IRGC retaliated by hitting at least two power and desalination plants and an oil production facility in Kuwait, resulting in injuries to several firefighters battling the resulting fires. As Kuwait and other U.S.-allied Gulf countries condemned the “heinous” Iranian attacks, analysts said that Iran’s attacks on Kuwait appear intended to “show what kind of effect Iran really can have on those countries that are hosting American bases.”
Iranian officials also declared for the first time that the Islamabad MoU has been completely scrapped, as Iranian deputy foreign minister Karim Garibabadi accused the U.S. of “violating all of its commitments” under the MoU and said that Iran has “suspended all of our commitments as a result.” Iranian ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam stated on X that the U.S. restarted the war “contrary to [the MoU’s] terms and gained control over parts of Strait Hormuz to obtain what it couldn’t in the battlefield.” Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also issued a statement released by Iranian state media outlet IRIB Saturday, declaring that Trump’s signature on the MoU has been rendered “worthless and invalid” by the attacks and that the United States has “revealed its true face,” exposing its “deceitfulness, irrationality, unreliability and wickedness,” warning that Iran has “unforgettable lessons” in store for the U.S. if it keeps carrying out attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure.
On Sunday, Iran condemned a U.S. strike on its partially built nuclear power facility in Darkhovin, which the IAEA said had not yet contained any nuclear material and thus posed no radiological risk. The IRGC said it had also shot down several U.S. drones and at least one cruise missile on Sunday, as Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE condemned Iran’s regional attacks and called for de-escalation and a return to dialogue.
Trump’s language on the deaths of U.S. servicemembers over the weekend hardened on Monday as he posted on Truth Social vowing that Iran would “pay many times over” for the deaths of every U.S. soldier killed in the conflict, a statement that according to analysts could constitute a war crime under international law. Explosions were reported across southern Iran on Monday including on Qeshm island, Bandar Abbas, Sirki, Chabahar, Isfahan and Konarak as well as several interior locations near Bushehr, Tabriz and Shiraz. Iran launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. HIMARS missile systems in Kuwait, as well as air navigation systems in Bahrain. The White House said that the strikes would continue until Trump decides otherwise, while also saying that diplomatic talks between the two belligerents were continuing to advance. Iran rejected the statement, with President Pezeshkian declaring that Iran was in a state of “full-scale war” against the United States. Rumors of a planned ground invasion against Kharg Island also circulated Monday, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei warning that the United States would face the “consequences” of “any adventure” aimed at seizing the critical island that hosts Iranian oil production facilities.
Also on Monday, Yemen’s Houthis announced a maritime blockade of the Bab el-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea, accusing Saudi Arabia of being directly or indirectly involved in last week’s airport attack in Sanaa and decrying the Kingdom’s “besieging” of Yemenis in the Houthi-controlled territories. The UN expressed its concern at the closure of “another chokepoint” in the critical energy-producing region, as the Bab el-Mandab blockade cuts off approximately 7% of the world’s oil supply on top of the 20% of global exports constrained by the dual blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
Another tanker attempting to run the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Oman route was struck by an ‘unknown projectile’ Monday, as Iran later claimed it may have struck a mine as it attempted to traverse ‘unauthorized’ waters. Economist Javed Hassan told Al Jazeera that the prolonged closure of the Strait is causing a ‘structural shortage’ of LNG supply, particularly to Asia, as Qatar has been forced to halt production of what had been a fifth of the world’s LNG supplies before the start of the war, saying “that capacity has been gone for months and it isn’t coming back anytime soon.”
On Tuesday, Trump announced that the United States may carry out bombing raids “very soon” on Iran’s rumored nuclear centrifuges under ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ (known as ‘Kolang Kouh’ in Iran), which lies in proximity to the Natanz nuclear power plant. Nuclear weapons expert David Albright commented that previous intelligence reports indicated that there had been “nothing of sufficient value” on the mountain, which is why it had been spared from previous attacks; though he acknowledged that the “assessment may have changed” since the resumption of hostilities. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei claimed on X that “no nuclear activity has taken place” at the site, and that Trump’s threats were “nothing more than a fabricated pretext for aggression, destruction, and sabotage.” Former Navy SEAL and military analyst Matt Bracken told YouTube journalist Mario Nawfal on Wednesday that the planned attack on Pickaxe Mountain was a “Hollywood” publicity stunt meant to give Trump an easy victory to boost support among his increasingly skeptical domestic base, noting that the plans resembled a plotline from the 2022 Tom Cruise film “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Also on Tuesday, Pakistani mediators doubled down on efforts to revive a diplomatic path to resolution between the United States and Iran, receiving Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni on Tuesday as Qatar and Egypt joined Pakistan’s proposal for a 10-day ceasefire to bring both parties back to the negotiating table under the provisions of the Islamabad MoU. While Trump and Rubio maintained that Iran was “desperate” to return to negotiations, analysts say that although Iran remains willing to negotiate, their stance remains that what has been “signed and agreed” to in the MoU “needs to be honored” by the United States before talks can progress. Although it appears that Trump’s stance has been to use force to “bring the Iranians to surrender, capitulation,” or at least to “force them to make more concessions,” Foreign Minister Araghchi reasserted in an interview with APT this week that “you can neither threaten us nor bribe us” to compromise the “principles and policies” set forth before the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
On Wednesday, the United States carried out strikes on Iran for the twelfth night in a row as Iran’s Health Ministry reported that at least 53 people have been killed by U.S. attacks since June 27, including three children. Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers attempting to cross the Bab el-Mandab Strait, forcing at least three ships to make a u-turn as the Houthis enforced their blockade for a second day. Trump renewed his threats to bomb civilian infrastructure in Iran, vowing to destroy “a bridge for every ship” attacked on either of the Gulf’s critical chokepoints; Baghaei denounced Trump’s statements, saying on Thursday that the threat “constitutes reprisal and collective punishment, both of which are explicitly prohibited as war crimes under international humanitarian law.” Araghchi warned on X that the Iranian response would be an “eye for an eye” as the IRGC announced it would begin targeting civilian infrastructure in U.S.-allied Gulf states if the U.S. continued to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran, noting that Iran had used the two-month-long pause in the war during MoU negotiations to replenish their munitions stocks.
As U.S. forces carried out fresh attacks on nuclear facilities in Bushehr, Trump shocked regional observers Wednesday by signing a 30-year bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia – the country from which 15 of the 19 perpetrators of the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks originated – that would allow the Kingdom to enrich uranium for energy purposes. An announcement released by the U.S. Department of Energy said that the agreement, which still requires approval from Congress, aims to “expand American nuclear technology exports, create high-paying U.S. jobs and long-term economic growth, strengthen America’s energy and national security posture, reinforce global nonproliferation standards and deepen the strategic partnership between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
U.S. lawmakers as well as Israeli officials reacted with dismay to the announcement; former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett condemned the agreement as a “serious strategic failure that endangers our security,” warning that it “could lead to a regional nuclear race and a dangerous loss of control.” Rosemary Kelanic, head of the Middle East programme at Defense Priorities, slammed the deal on social media as “reckless,” saying, “Saudi enrichment would put immense pressure on Iran to get the bomb. Is Trump TRYING to provoke Iran into weaponising?” When asked by reporters at the ASEAN summit in Manila about the controversial optics and timing of this agreement while the U.S. is actively conducting military action against Iran for doing the same thing, Marco Rubio commented that “we’d prefer them to do it with us rather than with some other country.” Democrats opposed to the deal pointed out that during his time as a Senator, Rubio was a vocal supporter of the “No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act.”
While in Manila on Thursday, Rubio also echoed Trump’s statements that Iran was “begging for a deal” and accusing Iran of violating the MoU first. He also echoed Trump’s threats of collective punishment, saying the U.S. response to Tehran would be a “head for an eye.” Oil prices rose to $94 a barrel overnight, marking their highest level since June 8, as an unidentified explosion set a tanker ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz (possibly from mines placed in or near the U.S.-backed southern route). A group of Thai sailors who survived an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz in March sued the vessel’s owners Thursday, alleging that Iranian warnings were ignored ahead of the strike as a decision was made to run the blockade.
Also on Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, citing the collective defense agreement Pakistan maintains with Saudi Arabia. Yemenis in Sanaa responded, citing former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s refusal to send Pakistani troops to aid Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, and warned that Yemenis would “lose respect” for Pakistan if it “decided to side with the oppressors against the oppressed. The Omani Foreign Ministry announced that it is coordinating with Saudi Arabia, Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume dialogue towards a political solution “aimed at achieving security and stability in the region,” stressing the need to avoid escalation that would worsen the situation in the Red Sea.
U.S. bombs exploded in Bushehr, Ahvaz, Sirik and Shalamcheh on Thursday morning as U.S. strikes also targeted the civilian border crossing between Iran and Iraq, killing two. Iranian drones and missiles struck U.S. THAAD missile control systems in Jordan and U.S. military targets in Kuwait as the IRGC warned of “new strategies and scenarios to make the war impossible for the aggressors to continue” should attacks on southern Iran’s infrastructure persist.
Red Scare Redux: Trump, Rubio declare global campaign against so-called ‘Left-Wing Terrorism’ as prominent groups, activists and donors targeted by Feds under NSPM-7. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio gathered representatives from dozens of countries for a “Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism,” focusing on the Trump Administration’s designation of ‘far-left’ groups as ‘domestic terrorists’ under last September’s National Security Presidential Memorandum 7. The summit was spearheaded by Rubio, controversial Nazi medal-wearer Sebastian Gorka, now head of counterterrorism for the Trump Administration, and White House “ideologue-in-chief” Stephen Miller, who in his speech at the summit called left-wing groups “enemies of civilization” and touted the Trump Administration’s commitment to “disrupt, identify, defund, debank, arrest and prosecute these political terrorists that are operating in our country.”
Ken Klippenstein, the journalist who first published the story about NSPM-7 in September, broke the story this week on a new report released by the State Department titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” a 100-page document that explicitly echoes and positively references the “achievements” of the McCarthy era, and includes a “modern-day blacklist” naming at least 43 activists and/or organizations linked to Cuban solidarity and social justice activism, whom the State Department designated as “FLT”s, an acronym for “Far Left Terrorists.” Among them is the 89-year-old legal organization National Lawyers Guild, which has the unique distinction of having been listed on both the McCarthy-era blacklist in the 1950s and the current list released by Rubio.
The report includes three pages on the Democratic Socialists of America, whose candidates have been sweeping Democratic primaries across the country. Military.com, a media outlet written by and for U.S. Armed Forces servicemembers, noted that the summit not only raised concerns about “ideological profiling and politicized enforcement,” but also questioned the timing of the crackdown just ahead of the midterm elections, which even Republicans have conceded may end up in a “wipeout” for the party due to the massive unpopularity of Trump’s war of choice in Iran and his failure to address the growing affordability crisis.
The list of organizations singled out for prosecution span a variety of left-wing and liberal causes, including: the Amazon Labor Union and its lead organizer Chris Smalls, the antiwar organization CodePink, Black Lives Matter, and the Party for Socialism and Liberation, among others; as well as individuals tied to the progressive left, such as viral streamer Hasan Piker, Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry’s fame, and Amy Goodman, host of Democracy Now.
The list also includes sitting and former electeds who have expressed favorable views towards Cuba, such as “Squad” members Reps. Ayanna Pressley and Ilhan Omar, whose daughter Isra Hirsi also made the list for organizing pro-Palestine protests on her college campus; highly popular NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani; Rep. Maxine Waters, and former San Francisco Attorney General Chesa Boudin, who made the list on account of his parents, who were former Weather Underground members. One bizarre inclusion on the list is slain Minneapolis resident George Floyd, who has been dead for six years and whose murder at the hands of police sparked nationwide protests in 2020.
The Trump Administration has also targeted prominent funders of left-wing social movements worldwide, including Neville Roy Singham, a China-based tech magnate who has funded various social justice movements in the United States, including PSL and CodePink, of which his wife, Jodie Evans, is a co-founder and also on the list. Another movement funder, James “Fergie” Chambers, was arrested last week in Spain on a U.S. extradition request seeking his arrest for donating part of his $250 million fortune towards humanitarian aid initiatives in Gaza, interpreted by U.S. and Israeli authorities as “material support for Hamas,” as well as contributing to legal defense funds and support for various left-wing social movements in the United States. His family, along with a number of Spanish politicians, are currently appealing to the Spanish government to refuse his extradition, noting that the current extradition treaty between the United States and Spain allows the government to refuse surrender when there are grounds for believing that the extradition request is “intended to prosecute or punish a person on political grounds.”
Most prominent among the ‘threats’ identified by the State Department is the amorphous “organization” Antifa, which many commentators point out is not actually an organization but rather a cultural, historical and ideological tradition that encompasses a diverse spectrum of social movements that have resisted fascism, authoritarianism, and hate groups since before World War II. Blogger and journalist Stacey Patton has noted the resemblance between the Trump Administration’s current campaign against the left and the methods used by the U.S. government against Black civil rights and anti-slavery groups in earlier repressive eras of American history.
The fears of many observers that this amorphous designation could be used to suppress any person or organization that expresses dissent towards the Trump Administration’s agenda have been borne out in the recent convictions of nine anti-ICE protestors in Prairieland, Texas, who received prison sentences ranging from 30 to 100 years for ‘conspiracy to commit domestic terrorism’ for acts ranging from spray-painting graffiti to carrying political zines in their car. Currently on trial under the same designation is the ‘Minnesota 15,’ made up of community organizers who participated in the massive grassroots resistance movement that rose up against ICE raids in Minneapolis in January.
The Trump Administration’s international campaign against dissenters has also taken aim at established international legal institutions such as the International Criminal Court, which the State Department described in a press release this week as a “globalist menace” that Rubio personally vowed to “systematically disable.” The ICC has an active arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of crimes against humanity for his role in the genocidal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza. The Trump Administration has also carried out sanctions against ICC officials and judges, including directing Microsoft to suspend their Outlook email accounts. Mayor Mamdani this week announced he was exploring whether local law enforcement could enforce the ICC’s arrest warrant when Netanyahu travels to New York for the UN General Assembly meeting in September, before finding out that New York City lacks the legal authority to do so.
Third ICE-related murder of tourist in Florida sparks renewed calls for accountability as FBI announces halt to investigations of ICE-related incidents. ICE enforcement actions resulted in another death last week as 28-year-old Juan Jairo Coronilla Duran died after being struck by a semi truck while crossing a freeway to flee from agents outside St. Augustine, Florida. Coronilla, who had only been in the United States for two days on a tourist visa and already had a ticket home, marks at least the tenth fatality during immigration sweeps since January 2025 and the third ICE enforcement-involved death within a week. Coronilla’s wife learned of his death on the news rather than being directly notified; the Associated Press confirmed his identity with a Mexican government official. Coronilla was at a gas station when he and four other men were approached by ICE agents; all of the men fled, and according to officials Coronilla ran into traffic where he was then fatally struck by a passing vehicle.
Developments in the aftermath of the killing of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston this week have brought ICE narratives around shootings by agents under further public scrutiny. ICE officials initially alleged that a white substance found in plastic bags in Araujo’s van was methamphetamine; however, his family’s attorney and Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare both disputed the claim, stating that it was a home-made electrolyte mix for Araujo’s construction work. Teare went on in a CNN interview to state that, “It doesn’t matter whether or not there were drugs. It has no bearing on why Mr. Salgado and the other three individuals were targeted. It has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not the use of force that killed Mr. Salgado was justified.” This revelation has led critics to accuse agents of engaging in a smear campaign against Salgado; Teare told CNN of the methamphetamine allegations, “the only thing that I can think they did it for was to smear a good man’s name,” and stated that he did not believe the FBI had properly processed the van for evidence that could provide a clearer picture of the events surrounding the shooting.
The three other individuals who were in Salgado’s van when he was killed, Jose Trinidad Rojas Pliego, Daniel Tirado Pantoja and Salgado Araujo’s brother Victor Hugo Salgado Araujo, remain in ICE custody. In the immediate aftermath of the shooting, family members of the witnesses claimed that they were facing pressure from ICE to self-deport. This week, U.S. District Judge Keith Ellison issued a directive ordering DHS to refrain from deporting Rojas Pliego or transferring him to a facility outside southern Texas pending investigation, following a petition from Rojas Pliego’s attorney. Salgado Araujo and Tirado Pantoja have filed similar petitions, arguing that they are being held unlawfully while serving as key witnesses in the ongoing investigation. The witnesses said in written statements to the court that ICE agents were never positioned in front of or behind the vehicle while it was moving, that the vehicle had come to a full stop when agents shot Lorenzo, and that at one point agents rammed the van with their own vehicles. The statements also describe agents firing multiple shots and swapping weapons after Lorenzo was hit.
Emerging details about David Brouliette, the ICE agent who shot and killed Johan Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine last week, have also led to renewed public focus on the agency’s hiring practices. Court documents have revealed that Brouliette was accused of abuse by two of his ex-wives; one of whom, Ashley Brouliette, told NPR in an interview that Brouliette “has displayed racism” and “had a bad tendency of going out and looking for fights,” as well as recounting an incident in which Brouliette pointed a gun at her while she was in the shower after a fight and sharing a voicemail in which Brouliette said Ashley and the women in the family should have their “f***ing throats cut.” An immediate relative of David Brouliette told the Associated Press that Brouliette was “extremely mentally ill” as a child and was hospitalized multiple times for mental health issues, and The Hill reported family members saying that he should never have been given a badge and gun. Records also show that Brouliette sustained a head injury in 2021 for which he collected disability benefits as he stated that it left him with “cognitive deficits.” Brouliette’s daughter told the AP that he told her the killing was justified, adding, “I don’t think he sees himself as a killer.”
These revelations have driven lawmakers to demand answers regarding the ICE hiring process and call for an independent investigation into the shooting. Mississippi’s Rep. Bonnie Thompson, top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, told the AP that Brouliette’s history of violence and mental health issues “directly call[s] into question the supposed vetting and training ICE does of its recruits.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said in a statement that “This agent clearly should never have had a gun – let alone one provided to him by the United States government. And now a man is dead.”
The federal response to this string of killings and subsequent renewed scrutiny of ICE has been marked with controversy. Shortly after the shootings, border czar Tom Homan stated that the agency would be halting traffic stops, but this decision was immediately overruled by a reportedly “furious” Trump who viewed the move as weakening enforcement. Homan stated that the agency is moving “as quickly as possible” to ensure that all ICE agents have body cameras within 60 days – a technology predecessor Kristi Noem had already promised the department would “rapidly acquire and deploy” in the aftermath of the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, and which DHS was granted $20 million to implement in April of this year. Federal agents around the country received written notification last week that the FBI will no longer be investigating confrontations with immigration agents – a move that many cite as a clear example of ‘the fox guarding the henhouse,’ as it would give ICE and DHS further freedom to act with impunity.
The War on Food: U.S. mayors warn of ‘hunger crisis’ as more than 4.5 million Americans have lost SNAP benefits due to the One Big Beautiful Bill; critics slam DOGE cuts to food safety as Cyclospora outbreak sweeps the nation. A bipartisan group of more than 200 U.S. mayors sent a letter to Senate leaders on the Senate Agricultural Committee this week asking Congress to reconsider nearly $187 billion in cuts to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which, along with new eligibility and work requirements, has already cut access to food assistance for over 4 million Americans this year, nearly 1.5 million of whom are children.
A new report from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities released this week found that SNAP claims have declined by at least 11%, a decline that is “outpacing the government’s own projections” as the nation faces the “fastest, steepest decline” in food assistance benefits in decades. “It’s not because the need is any lower,” said Ty Jones Cox, CBPP’s vice president for food assistance; “we are facing a hunger crisis that Congress has the power to mitigate."
Saying they are on the “front lines of a deepening food security crisis,” members of the United States Conference of Mayors said in a statement that in a time of rising inflation and increasingly unaffordable costs of living, the federal government should be expanding access to food security assistance, not cutting it. They also urged the federal government to delay offloading nearly $9 billion in food assistance costs to states beginning in fiscal year 2027, as much of the burden will prove unsustainable for already-struggling states facing budget gaps.
The Republican-championed budget bill imposes steep penalties for states whose payment error rates are above 6%, causing some states like New Mexico to shoulder a staggering $150 million in additional food assistance costs, even as nearly 18,000 residents of the state – 10,000 of them children – have already been thrown off the food stamp rolls due to hastily implemented new paperwork requirements that have raised barriers to continued enrollment as states navigate the ‘bureaucratic chaos’ of lowering their error rates below the new federal requirement of 6%.
In Arizona, one of the states hit hardest by the SNAP reforms, community food pantries report that the number of people coming to them for prepared meals has nearly doubled over the past year since the changes were implemented, and demand for take-home groceries has skyrocketed. More than 53 percent of Arizona SNAP recipients have lost their benefits over the past year, as nearly half a million Arizona residents, including 196,000 families with children, have found it more difficult to put food on the table during a time when inflation related to Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran energy shock has raised food prices by more than 4.2 percent over the same period. The New York Times reports that “Arizonans losing SNAP say they are skipping meals, quarreling over food, and missing rent payments to restock pantry shelves.”
Axios reports that in Virginia, where SNAP enrollment has declined 14% over the last nine months, demand at food banks has risen more than 20% as rising fuel and housing costs are driving more families, even those with household incomes over the SNAP threshold, to community pantries in order to survive and make ends meet. While food pantry managers report they are pulling out all the stops to meet the increased need, they note that charitable institutions “were never designed to replace SNAP,” which one executive director cited as “the nation’s most effective, dignified, and scalable tool for reducing food insecurity.”
In another consequence of Administration cuts to the nation’s food system institutions, nearly 7,000 people across the country have been hit by the fast-spreading cyclosporiasis outbreak that has caused ‘explosive diarrhea’ symptoms in cases spanning over 41 states and counting. According to a Johns Hopkins Institute report published this week, researchers have concluded that the sweeping cuts to federal government programs, staff, and funding since the Trump Administration brought in DOGE to take a “chainsaw” to government spending have eroded the once-robust network of surveillance, regulation, and enforcement that would have provided greater opportunities to quickly trace and identify the outbreak’s source and stop its spread.
Environmental Health Professor Kellogg J. Schwab says that a combination of biological factors involving the often evasive and resilient Cyclospora parasite, which originates from human feces and can live in soil and water for months before contamination is detected, and the disappearance of regulatory guardrails have contributed to the outbreak. Until June 2025, the interagency FoodNet surveillance network closely monitored Cyclospora and other potential contaminants across 10 critical nodes across the nation’s food system through a system of mandatory reporting. Last year, the Trump Administration relaxed the regulations, making reporting optional for Cyclospora and five other pathogens, including the deadly Listeria bacterium. Schwab also notes that the CDC’s capacity for coordination to handle outbreaks across states has been severely degraded after the controversial overhaul of the agency spearheaded by RFK Jr. last year that saw the ouster of hundreds of veteran epidemiologists. The CDC has been criticized for its slow response to the outbreak and its failure to realize its spread across several states until over a thousand cases were documented by local healthcare institutions.
Last week, FDA testing traced the source of the outbreak to shredded lettuce produced by agricultural giant Taylor Farms, which supplies lettuce to Taco Bell and other restaurants around the country, prompting the corporation to recall lettuce across 27 states. This week, the FDA reported that under review, the test that identified Taylor Farms lettuce as the source was actually a false positive, leaving the ultimate source of the outbreak still a mystery. On Wednesday, the FDA reported that a second Cyclospora outbreak unrelated to lettuce was detected in about 72 cases; the agency said it had initiated a traceback of the affected cases and any results have not yet been confirmed.
Also this week, Health Secretary RFK Jr. and Medicaid/Medicare Services administrator Dr. Oz announced Tuesday that the federal government would be cutting $1 billion in Medicaid funding for California and Minnesota, accusing the two states – Democratic-led sanctuary states with immigrant populations who have been heavily targeted by ICE raids over the past year – of widespread “fraud and noncompliance.” Reuters reports that the two officials have not provided any evidence supporting their allegations. The cuts appear to be tied to Trump’s months-long campaign against Democratic-led states that have defied the Administration on political issues tied to immigration and voting rights. Last month, Trump directed federal agencies to investigate how they could block funding specifically to California, and FEMA was found earlier this year to be deliberately holding back federal disaster aid to blue states. This week, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin also threatened Democratic-led states not only with blocking federal grants but also with the jailing of state officials who continue to refuse to hand over voter information to the federal government.
MOVEMENT TRACKER
Anti-ICE resistance movements spring back into action as ICE shootings spark fear, anger and resolve. Protests have reverberated across the country in the wake of recent ICE killings. In Houston, marches and rallies are ongoing. Magnolia Park, the tight-knit neighborhood once called Houston’s “Little Mexico” where Lorenzo Salgado Araujo’s killing took place, has been heavy with anguished grief; a vigil at the site of the shooting has grown nightly since July 7th, and Salgado Araujo’s family held a public viewing for him last week that drew hundreds of community members. Hundreds of protesters gathered in Houston’s Ervan Chew park on Sunday and briefly shut down a nearby bridge after a rally led by a coalition of dozens of organizations including the Houston chapter of the Party for Socialism and Liberation advocacy group Immigration Youth Texas.
On Tuesday, a broad coalition of community groups, faith leaders, small business owners, and civil rights advocates gathered outside Houston City Hall to call for a citywide “Day of Action” and voluntary shutdown on Friday, July 24, demanding justice for Salgado Araujo. The coalition outlined five core demands: an independent investigation into the killing, a release of the names of all ICE agents involved, criminal prosecution of the agents responsible, the immediate release of the three detained witnesses, and an end to all collaboration between the Houston Police Department and ICE. A group of more than a dozen protesters disrupted the Houston City Council meeting that same night, holding banners reading “Stop the deportations” and stalling the meeting until all protesters were escorted out by police.
Houston’s protests are amongst a renewed wave of surging nationwide protests. A rally in Portland, Maine drew more than 1,000 protesters on Saturday, where speakers called for electoral accountability and signs called for “ICE Out of Maine”; demonstrations have been ongoing across the state since the killing of Johan Guerrero, and many Maine protesters have particularly criticized Sen. Susan Collins for her vote in favor of adding $70 billion to ICE’s funding. Mayor Liam LaFountain of Biddeford, where the shooting occurred, read from a proclamation during a special city council meeting on Tuesday calling for the federal government to “reform the nation’s decades-old, broken and inhumane immigration system,” asking for “justice and truth” and stating that, “we’re here because Johan was a member of this community, our community.” Residents who spoke out at the meeting described an atmosphere of fear since enforcement operations began in the city in January, with some describing the killing as a “tragic inevitability,” saying that the longer ICE was present in the area, the more likely it became that someone would be killed.
In Florida, protests sprang up across the state in response to Juan Jairo Coronilla Duran’s death. A rally organized by the Jacksonville Immigrant Rights Alliance gathered outside the Duval County courthouse on Thursday to call for an independent investigation into the incident. Protesters marched in Orlando on Saturday with similar calls, and on Sunday the Tampa Immigrant Rights Coalition called an emergency protest to draw attention to the recent ICE-involved deaths. Significant protests and vigils also took place in Los Angeles, Tucson, Burlington, Charlotte, and Las Vegas on Saturday, along with over 300 other rallies reported by activist organization 50501.
India’s Gen Z-led ‘Cockroach Revolution’ challenges the Modi government on the streets and in Parliament. In political movement news from around the world, what was initially a satirical political party in India has developed into a Gen Z-led movement some are dubbing the “Cockroach Revolution.” The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) was founded in May by 30-year-old Abhijeet Dipke as a satirical response to comments by India’s Chief Justice, Surya Kant, comparing the country’s unemployed to “cockroaches” and “parasites.” The CJP’s name is also a poke at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP).
Within two weeks, the Instagram page for the CJP had exploded to 22 million followers, outpacing the BJP’s own online following. The movement focused first on corruption issues regarding the country’s notoriously grueling and competitive medical entrance exams, a pressing issue for the more than two million Indian applicants who compete for just 130,000 placements each year. A string of leaks of these exams that forced millions to re-take them and were tied to a number of suicides serve as a focal point for the CJP’s criticisms of Modi, and the movement’s first offline protest was a June demonstration calling for the resignation of education minister Dharmendra Pradhan.
For many young adults in India, the CJP gives voice to broader economic frustrations over an education system and job market that have failed them; according to one recent study, almost 40% of India’s college graduates under age 25 are unemployed. As the movement grew, protests were joined by engineer and education activist Sonam Wangchuk, who began a hunger strike in late June demanding Pradhan’s resignation.
Twenty days into the hunger strike, Delhi police sparked national outrage by forcibly detaining Wangchuk and transporting him to a government hospital against his will. Protests swelled in response, and over 20,000 reportedly gathered in New Delhi on Monday. Delhi police stated that more than 180 people were injured and over 70 arrested in the ensuing clashes between police and protesters. Dipke stated in a press conference the following day that “we will not march again because the police will hurt the youth again.”
On Wednesday, a group of opposition lawmakers led by opposition leader Rahul Gandhi disrupted India’s Parliament in solidarity with the movement, after he and other lawmakers were arrested during a sit-in outside Modi's residence on Tuesday. Many are hailing this movement as a major blow to the BJP, offering a rare opportunity for the opposition to apply pressure to Modi’s current grasp on power.
Latest Polls.
Trump Approval Rating. The New York Times’ aggregate of opinion polling across agencies this week show Trump’s approval rating continuing to hover around all-time lows, averaging around 38%, slipping even below Nixon’s record low during the Watergate scandal. The most recent Economist/YouGov poll shows just 36% of Americans still approve of his job performance as president. Trump’s approval ratings have also slipped across key demographic sectors of his voter base, including older Americans, uneducated Americans, and men. His approval with rural voters ticked up slightly this week after a pronounced slump over several months; Newsweek notes, however, that the poll had been taken before the resumption of Iran war hostilities last week, implying the bump was due to a brief period of optimism among the MAGA base on easing oil prices. A map released by Newsweek showed Trump’s approval rating is underwater in every single battleground state ahead of the midterms, just 18 months into his second term.
Iran War. Despite Trump’s comments this week attempting to spin a poll taken last month during the ceasefire that showed 60% of Americans supporting an end to the war as meaning voters “TRUST IN TRUMP,” support for the war this week amid renewed hostilities plunged to new lows, making the Iran war officially the most unpopular war in U.S. history. A Fox News poll found that disapproval of Trump’s handling of the war hit a record high in July, as nearly two-thirds of Americans think the conflict will drag out for at least a year or more. Seth Meyers notes that Trump’s approval rating is below that of Bush’s during the Iraq war. A new poll from Politico released Wednesday showed that support for the war among MAGA voters in particular crashed from 50% to just over one-third since Trump resumed kinetic strikes, indicating that his base is losing patience with the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. A new Economist/YouGov poll found that a majority (52%) of Americans now agree on one word to describe Trump: “Dangerous.”
Economy. According to a new poll by the Daily Mail/JL Partners, the increasingly unaffordable cost of living is the number one driver of voters’ disapproval of Trump’s job performance as President. A Fox News poll released this week showed just 24% of voters viewed the economy as “excellent” or “good” under the Trump Administration, while a staggering 76% perceived the economy as “fair” or “poor. The same poll found that 72% of middle-class Americans and 86% of working-class Americans feel that the system works against them, up a whopping 30 points from a decade ago. The Fox News poll also found a majority of Republicans joining Democrats and independents in registering a negative view of the economy, with a remarkable 4 in 10 Americans saying they want “dramatic” or even “revolutionary” change in the economy.
