Shakedowns
Week of July 25-31, 2025
Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
Trump launches ‘new world order’ of tariffs with ‘universal’ base rates for most nations, and wields steeper tariffs against others as a geopolitical tool. As the August 1 deadline for ‘reciprocal’ tariffs loomed this week, Trump made a flurry of trade moves, making deals with some nations and wielding higher tariffs against others. After months of contentious negotiations and under pressure to make a deal before steep tariffs activated at the end of the week, the European Union agreed to a trade deal with the United States, the contours of which were unveiled on Sunday, July 27 by Trump and European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen at the Trump-owned Turnberry golf course in Scotland. The agreement includes a 15% duty on most goods, plus a pledge from the EU to purchase at least $750 billion in energy from the United States and invest another $600 billion in U.S. industries (although observers note that carrying out those promises through private industry poses many challenges). While Trump touted it as the ‘biggest deal ever made,’ the plan was widely criticized within the EU as a lopsided agreement accepted under duress in order to avert a painful trade war; French prime minister Francois Bayrou called it a ‘dark day’ for Europe and a ‘submission’ to Trump’s bullying tactics. After months of tariff brinksmanship and retaliatory export restrictions, reaching a deal with China proved much more difficult this week. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers ahead of the talks this week for loosening export controls on Nvidia semiconductors to China, an essential component of AI technology that has sparked security concerns from some members of Congress. The two countries walked away from negotiations in Sweden this week without a breakthrough, but both agreed to an extension of their 90-day trade truce as negotiations continue. On Wednesday, July 30 the United States and South Korea announced a trade deal with a 15% base tariff rate and $450 billion in pledged investments from Seoul, including $100 billion of energy purchases and a $150 billion partnership to revive the U.S. shipbuilding industry. Trump also unveiled a sweeping tariff plan for the rest of the world on Thursday, July 31, keeping the current ‘universal’ 10% rate for countries with whom the U.S. has a trade surplus, and setting a 15% rate for nations where the U.S. has a trade deficit. He also moved back the deadline for tariffs to take effect from August 1 to August 7. With these announcements, Trump has set a new framework for global commerce that some analysts say bring an end to the era of globalized free trade; the Wall Street Journal says it’s still too early to tell as the details are vague and the politics are fragile.
Also on Wednesday, Trump announced a slew of new tariffs with geopolitical implications, including a 50% levy on copper, a repeal of the ‘de minimis’ exemption for small shipments, and steeper levies on Brazil and India. Brazil, which has a trade surplus with the United States, was hit with a 50% tariff in retaliation for Brazil’s prosecution of Trump ally and former president Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt in 2022. Brazilian president Lula da Silva has so far stood firm against Trump on his attempt to wield political influence against Brazil’s judiciary via tariff; Lula spoke to the New York Times in a rare interview this week to tell the American people directly about his concerns with Trump’s attempt to infringe on Brazil’s sovereignty. Trump also threatened a 25% tariff on India over concerns with its ties to Russia, and levied a 35% tariff against Canada after prime minister Mark Carney announced Canada would recognize a Palestinian state. Trump suspended his plan to impose higher tariffs on Mexico after President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to a 90-day extension to allow for trade deal negotiations. Trump’s unorthodox and unilateral use of trade policy as a geopolitical weapon has drawn scrutiny from U.S. courts; judges heard opening arguments this week in a case brought by small businesses and 12 Democratic states on whether Trump is overstepping his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose tariffs without the approval of Congress.
International pressure on Israel turns a corner as war death toll passes 60,000, Trump breaks with Netanyahu, support for Israel in Congress shifts. The Overton window on Israel’s war on Gaza appears to have shifted significantly this week, as the increasingly grim and desperate pictures coming out of Gaza’s starvation crisis make the genocide impossible to ignore. Global hunger monitor IPC warned that a ‘worst-case scenario’ was unfolding in Gaza and called for an “unimpeded, large-scale, life-saving humanitarian response” to avert “catastrophic human suffering.” Gaza Health Ministry also released a report this week that the Palestinian death toll from Israel’s war has passed 60,000. Under mounting international pressure, the IDF agreed this week to allow airdrops of food into Gaza and create safe routes for UN vehicles to deliver food and medicine across the Gaza strip. Aid groups later warned the airdrops were a ‘grotesque distraction’ after several of the drops crushed Palestinian homes, and called for an end to the blockade as a real solution to the crisis. An internal government review also acknowledged that there is no evidence to support the Israeli claim that Hamas was stealing aid, a claim repeated by the New York Times on several occasions. In a historic first, two prominent Israeli human rights groups released reports this week concluding that Israel’s actions in Gaza amounted to genocide. In Congress, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene made a major break with the Republican Party by acknowledging the Gaza crisis as a ‘genocide,’ becoming the first Republican lawmaker to do so. Also for the first time, a majority of Senate Democrats voted for Bernie Sanders’ bill to block arms sales to Israel. Although the measure ultimately failed, 25 Democrats voted for the bill, possibly signaling a historic shift within the Party.
After calling an emergency cabinet meeting earlier in the week, UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK will join France in recognizing a Palestinian state in September unless Israel takes steps to relieve the starvation crisis and reaches a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Canada followed suit by recognizing Palestinian statehood a day later, prompting retaliation from Trump in the form of tariffs. Nevertheless, Trump notably broke with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Monday by acknowledging that “real starvation” was happening in Gaza, and said he would work with European allies to set up ‘food centers’ in the territory. On Thursday, July 31, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Netanyahu to try to salvage ceasefire talks as well as inspect aid operations. Hamas, which pulled out of talks after the U.S. and Israel abandoned the negotiating table last week, said they would commit to talks but not until after sufficient aid reaches starving Palestinians. Within Israel, Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Defense Minister Israel Katz said the time is ripe to annex the West Bank, while Netanyahu revealed that he will present to the cabinet ‘very soon’ a plan to annex the Gaza Strip that has the backing of the Trump Administration.After Columbia University deal, Trump Administration puts the screws on Harvard and other prominent universities. In the wake of Columbia University’s $220 million settlement with the Trump Administration to restore federal funding, the Administration is now putting pressure on other universities around the country to make similar deals. Vox explains why Columbia’s agreement is a troubling blueprint for higher education as more schools face pressure from the Trump Administration to concede not just money but also federal oversight over programs and admissions that erode academic freedom and autonomy. Columbia also adopted the controversial IHRA definition of ‘antisemitism’ into its antidiscrimination policy, which lists criticism of the Israeli government as ‘antisemitic’ and increases the risk of disciplinary action to students who participate in pro-Palestine protests. Marianne Hirsch, a genocide scholar at Columbia, has stated that she may leave the university over its adoption of the IHRA definition, whose ‘weaponization’ against pro-Palestine activists has been condemned by its original author. Historian Rashid Khalidi also cancelled his upcoming classes at Columbia, saying he “cannot do so under the conditions Columbia has accepted by capitulating to the Trump administration.” The Trump Administration renewed its campaign against Harvard University, which unlike Columbia opted to fight the Trump Administration in court. Nevertheless, Harvard has indicated its willingness to pay up to $500 million to settle their case, which many warn may just be a starting point for the Trump Administration to flex federal power over other aspects of the university. On Tuesday, July 29, Harvard said it will comply with the Trump Administration’s demand to share employer data. On Thursday, July 31, a group of prominent Harvard faculty sent an open letter to Harvard president Alan Garber urging him not to compromise critical values such as academic freedom and autonomy in negotiating with the Trump Administration. Also on Tuesday, the Trump Administration launched an investigation into Duke University over allegations that their affirmative action policies violated the Civil Rights Act, freezing $108 million in funding. The Trump Administration also sent a letter to George Mason University this week; GMU’s president, Gregory Washington, has recently come under scrutiny from the Administration for its continued use of affirmative action and other DEI policies. Brown University, which was similarly targeted, settled a deal with the Trump Administration this week agreeing to implement ‘non-discrimination’ in its personnel and grant federal officials access to admissions data.
Trump signs executive order allowing local governments to remove and forcibly institutionalize homeless people. On Thursday, July 24, Trump signed an executive order titled “Ending Crime and Disorder on America’s Streets,” directing Attorney General Pam Bondi to end policies that restrict local governments from institutionalizing “individuals on the streets” who are ‘at risk’. The order also directs Bondi to work with other Cabinet-level departments to “prioritize grants and municipalities that enforce prohibitions on… urban camping and loitering,” and ends federal funding for harm reduction services. Citing the “endemic vagrancy” that has made cities ‘unsafe,’ the order explicitly shifts away from current, evidence-based policies that prioritize a ‘housing first’ approach or providing services to unhoused communities in situ, and revives the 1960s-era practice of involuntary civil commitment, which allows local governments to place people with mental health issues into institutionalized treatment against their will. Community advocates and mental health experts slammed the executive order as regressive and cruel; in a statement, the ACLU opined that the order is “weaponizing federal funding to fuel cruel and ineffective approaches to homelessness.” The National Homelessness Law Center said the order “deprives people of their basic rights” and would worsen the problem as it does not tackle the root cause of homelessness, which is the increasing unaffordability of housing. An article in Filter describes how the punitive ‘command and control’ approach to the issue of homelessness encouraged in the order has been building for years among conservatives, and has lately begun to elicit some support from Democratic local leaders such as Eric Adams and Gavin Newsom, who have headed cities with large populations. Congresswoman Maxine Waters, whose district encompasses parts of Los Angeles, an epicenter of the homelessness crisis, slammed the order as ‘cruel and inhumane’ and noted it will disproportionately impact Black people most affected by the housing affordability crisis.
EPA repeals 2009 greenhouse gas ruling foundational to U.S. climate policy as continental U.S. copes with climate disaster. On Tuesday, the EPA unveiled a plan to rescind its landmark 2009 “endangerment finding” which made the case that greenhouse gases endangered public health and thus mandated the EPA to regulate GHGs under the Clean Air Act. The ruling establishes the legal basis for all U.S. climate regulations overseeing greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and industries. The EPA’s ‘scientific’ rationale for reconsidering the ruling depended primarily on the findings of a Department of Energy report issued one day earlier that runs counter to the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change and is referenced more than two dozen times in the EPA proposal. The report was written by a working group hand-picked by Energy Secretary Chris Murphy with ties to the Heartland Institute, a climate denialist think tank. At least ten scientists whose work was cited in the report told multiple media outlets that the error-filled report twisted, took out of context or otherwise ‘fundamentally misrepresented’ their work. Environmental law experts expect a slew of legal challenges to the new EPA rule that make implementation unlikely to ultimately succeed; but as one expert put it, “the damage is being done regardless of who ultimately wins the legal fight.” The Trump Administration recently stopped all work on the sixth National Climate Assessment, a report that is periodically mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. Additionally, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced last week that it will no longer review corporate climate disclosure rules, effectively abandoning its job to enforce the regulations. This major rollback of climate regulation is happening just a few weeks after deadly floods killed dozens in Texas and in the same week that 170 million people across the United States are sweltering under a dangerous ‘heat dome’ exacerbated by climate change. An OSHA rule for heat standards introduced under the Biden Administration last year languished in the first few months of the Trump Administration but this week is now being moved forward by OSHA independently of any indications from the White House. As the COP30 climate conference looms in November, the United States will not be officially represented due to the Trump Administration’s elimination of the State Department’s Office of Global Change, which represents the United States in global climate change negotiations.
Trump’s Justice Department moves to undermine DEI, voting rights, and rule of law in the United States. Truthout reports this week on a little-noticed memo issued in June by the Justice Department’s Civil Division, now headed by an attorney associated with the Federalist Society. The memo gives the Civil Division broad authority to proactively advance the Trump Administration’s agenda by pursuing ideologically-driven investigations of federal funds recipients for issues such as ‘illegal private-sector DEI,’ allegations of ‘antisemitism’ at federally funded institutions, and health care providers serving trans patients with gender-affirming care. This week, AG Pam Bondi issued a new memo requiring recipients of federal grants to scrap all programs and references to DEI, including antidiscrimination protections for historically marginalized people. The legal basis for this new requirement is a radical reinterpretation of the Civil Rights Act centered on “anti-white racism” instead of historically marginalized peoples. The new guidelines for federal funding could have sweeping implications for grantee institutions of all kinds, including diverse representation in media, ethnic studies classes at educational institutions, or nonprofits studying social disparities. Meanwhile, ProPublica reports that the DOJ has dropped a number of major lawsuits initiated last year to address civil rights abuses against incarcerated and mentally ill people. Democracy Docket reports on how the DOJ is quietly laying the groundwork for intervention in the 2026 midterm elections through a new initiative to review and ‘clean up’ state voter rolls and inspect voting machines. The DOJ also filed an ethics complaint this week against federal judge James Boasberg, who has ruled against Trump several times regarding the case of 250 Venezuelans deported to El Salvador’s CECOT prison without due process. Rep. Pramila Jayapal led dozens of members of Congress in demanding answers from the DOJ regarding an internal memo laying out a strategy to pursue denaturalization of U.S. citizens by “weaponizing denaturalization cases… to go after [the Trump Administration’s] perceived enemies.” The DOJ’s enthusiasm for going to such lengths to implement the Trump agenda, as well as Emil Bove’s confirmation to the U.S. Court of Appeals this week, is causing major concerns regarding the continuing existence of the rule of law in the United States.
MOVEMENT TRACKER
Academic workers, university leaders organize against Trump’s assault on higher education. As the Trump Administration turns the screws on universities such as Harvard and institutions such as Columbia are capitulating, rank and file academic workers, faculty, and university leaders are organizing amongst themselves to figure out ways to fight back. The Chronicle of Higher Education has published a running blog providing the latest updates on the Trump Administration’s pressure campaign. The American Association of University Professors has issued a bold statement in support of George Mason University and its continued resistance to the Justice Department’s demands. Harvard lecturer Stephanie Wong reflects on lessons she learned from the cohort of students in her Community Organizing class during Trump’s high-profile attacks on the university. David R. Lurie of Public Notice notes how Harvard choosing to resist rather than capitulate gives other institutions a source of inspiration, as Greg Sargent shares the letter written by faculty to Harvard president Alan Garber. The New Republic features a story on the collective resistance of the Big Ten and how a Mutual Defense Compact was created between faculty at various Big Ten institutions.
International resistance: Scottish protestors troll Trump, new Corbyn party surges as Lula stands firm against Trump’s trade war. As Trump arrived in Scotland for his trade meeting with Keir Starmer and European Commissioner Ursula van der Leyen, hundreds of Scottish protestors dogged Trump along the way to his Turnberry golf resort. Scottish paper The National prepared an ominous front-page spread with the headline “Convicted U.S. Felon to Arrive in Scotland.” Protestors rallied outside Trump’s golf resort and across Scotland, holding signs with signature Scottish wit and shutting down a major bridge as video of a protestor drowning out Trump’s press conference with Keir Starmer went viral on social media. Brazilian president Lula da Silva is currently in the spotlight for having stood firm against Trump in the face of 50% retaliatory tariffs. Lula spoke to the New York Times in order to convey his message directly to the American public about defending sovereignty in the face of Trump’s aggressive tactics. As protestors burned effigies of Trump and Bolsonaro in Brazilian cities, Lula’s approval rating is rising among Brazilians; while Trump’s tactics, intended to help Bolsonaro and his right-wing movement, have eroded support for the right as members of Congress formerly in opposition to Lula have moved to support him. In the UK, former Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have initiated the launch of a new political party to ‘take on the rich and powerful’ and challenge the neoliberal parties from the left. The party, which has not yet even been named, ballooned to over 600,000 sign-ups in the course of just a few days, and has already poached several councillors from Labour. New polling shows Reform voters preferring Corbyn’s positions to Starmer’s on nearly every topic, demonstrating the potential for a popular left movement to eat into support for both right and center at this particular moment in time.
Latest Polls show Trump sinking on key topics as popular support for Gaza turns a corner. New polling from the Economist/YouGov shows Trump’s approval rating at 15 points underwater, now hovering at all-time lows across both terms as 55% disapprove of his job performance. A Wall Street Journal poll from earlier in the week showed cracks forming in Trump’s MAGA base for the first time since the January 6 insurrection, ostensibly driven by the continuing Epstein scandal. This week’s Gallup poll shows Trump’s approval hitting rock bottom at an all-time low of 37%; even on immigration, the Trump Administration’s signature issue, approval has hit a near record low of 35% across all parties as Americans balk at the excesses of ICE raids and the construction of detention facilities like Alligator Alcatraz. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll shows that Trump’s approval rating on immigration has taken a 20-point dive since February and a remarkable 10% slide since June, while Gallup shows that a record high 79% of voters now think immigration is good for the country. Trump’s numbers on the economy are even worse: a CBS/YouGov poll shows that fully half of U.S. voters report being worse off as a result of Trump’s economic policies; even a Fox News poll released on Tuesday showed 62% disapproval of Trump’s handling of inflation. A Century Foundation survey conducted by Morning Consult showed Americans’ “financial insecurity is widespread and runs deep”; more than 4 in 5 Americans (83%) are concerned with the affordability of groceries, and more than half consistently worried about making basic expenses such as rent or covering medical bills. The same survey found 6 in 10 Americans holding Trump responsible for their current economic woes. Gallup polling on the Israel-Palestine issue showed approval for Israel’s military action in Gaza at an all-time low of 32% since the war started in October 2023. A new poll by the Institute for Middle East Understanding and Data for Progress released this week shows that NYC Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly believe that Israel is ‘committing genocide’ in Gaza and that the United States should stop sending arms to Israel. 62% of voters said that Zohran Mamdani’s support for Palestinian rights swayed their vote, which could prove consequential for the future of the Democratic Party in general as the tide turns among Democratic constituencies on Gaza. Gallup shows that even though Democrats have now gained a slight advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification, favorability ratings for the party as such continue to hover near record lows as a WSJ poll shows the lowest approval ratings for Democrats in 35 years.
Upcoming Protests.
Saturday, August 2: The 50501 Movement will be holding another nationwide mobilization, this one themed ‘Rage Against the Regime’. More information on local actions can be found at RageAgainstTheRegime.org.
Tuesday, August 5: The Institute for the Critical Study of Zionism will be holding an online webinar titled “Anti-Zionism means Abolition” with guest speakers Jalil Muntaqim, Loubna Qutami, Dylan Rodriguez, and Laura Whitethorn. More information and Zoom registration can be found at http://bit.ly/AZAbolition.
Tuesday, August 5: The Brennan Center for Justice will be holding a virtual event titled “The Rise of the Imperial Presidency” featuring historians and legal experts examining the origins of the ‘unitary executive’ theory underpinning the Trump Administration’s approach, and its implications for the future of checks and balances. More information and a Zoom registration can be found on the Brennan Center Live website.
Wednesday, August 13: Stand Up For Science will be holding an online event called “Stand Up for Psych: Suicide Research” featuring a team of professional suicide prevention researchers who will talk about their work and what the community can do to support the work. More information and RSVP links can be found at StandUpForScience.Net.
Saturday, August 16: Social Security Works is calling for a nationwide mobilization in defense of Social Security called “Protect Our Checks”. More information on local events, an organizer’s toolkit, and other resources can be found at ProtectOurChecks.com.
Saturday, August 23: 50501 Chicago will be holding a demonstration (separate from the August 2nd action) calling for ‘No Camps, No War, No 1984’. More information can be found on the protest flyer or on 50501 Chicago’s Bluesky account.
Lawsuit Updates.
A third court has blocked the Trump Administration’s executive order limiting birthright citizenship within the parameters laid out by last month’s Supreme Court decision. U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin ruled that the nationwide injunction he had granted on behalf of 12 states still applied given the exceptions laid out by the Supreme Court ruling.
U.S. District Court Judge Lindsay C. Jenkins threw out the Trump Administration’s lawsuit against the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois over their sanctuary city policies, determining that the Trump Administration ‘lacks standing’ to invalidate state, city, and county laws that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
A federal judge in Boston expanded her block on the Trump Administration’s attempt to defund Planned Parenthood through provisions of the ‘big beautiful’ tax bill, issuing a new nationwide preliminary injunction that covers dozens of state and local Planned Parenthood organizations.
Twenty states sued the Trump Administration over the USDA’s demand for sensitive personal information of SNAP recipients from state agencies. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said that the request “violates all kinds of state and federal privacy laws and further breaks the trust between the federal government and the people it serves.”
The International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers has filed a fourth federal lawsuit against the Trump Administration over Trump’s March executive order that attempted to strip collective bargaining rights from two-thirds of federal workers. The lawsuit challenges the Trump Administration’s use of an obscure clause of the 1978 Civil Service Act that exempted certain workers from collective bargaining rights under the auspices of national security.
