Off Ramp
Week of March 20-27, 2026
Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
Trump blinks first in Hormuz standoff, is mocked over touting imaginary ‘peace talks’ to cover his ‘Persian TACO’ debacle in the Gulf. Pundits speculating on Trump’s deteriorating mental state got a generous helping of red meat to chew, as the world watched the President of the United States, outmaneuvered by Iran and backed into a corner by global markets, attempt and fail to mask over a U.S. retreat with a bizarre act of political theater. After days of talking about ‘winding down the war’ lastweek, Trump changed direction again, issuing an ultimatum to Tehran on Saturday, March 20, threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure if it did not re-open the Strait of Hormuzwithin 48 hours. The Revolutionary Guard responded in kind, saying it will “completely close” the strait of Hormuz and target all “energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure” held by the U.S., Israel, and their allies throughout the Persian Gulf region if its own facilities are attacked. Over the next 24 hours, Iran executed a series of ambitious attacks as if to drive home its message: it penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome and wounded 100 people as missiles successfully struck targets in southern Israel and near Jerusalem; launched further missiles at the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh and the U.S. military base in Baghdad; and—in another first for Iran—launched two long-range ballistic missiles at the U.S./British-occupied base on Diego Garcia, over 4000km away in the Indian Ocean. Israel launched awave of strikes on Iran Saturday night, including one that struck in close proximity to a nuclear power plant at Natanz. In response, Iranian missile attacks struck the southern Israeli city of Dimona, near one of Israel’s nuclear power facilities. The tit for tat prompted the World Health Organization to issue a warning that the war had reached a “perilous stage,” pleading with all parties to “exercise maximum military restraint” and avoid attacks that could trigger a nuclear incident.
U.S. and Iranian officials traded threats over television and social media Sunday as U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz defended Trump’s infrastructure threat on CBS and Fox News, saying (erroneously) that Iran’s power grid was controlled by the IRGC and was therefore a legitimate target. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reminded observers that Iran was still letting ships through that were unaligned with the U.S. and Israel, and were willing to negotiate terms with Iran. “Ships hesitate because insurers fear the war of choice you initiated — not Iran,” Araghchi wrote on social media, reiterating that Iran will not be “swayed by threats”... “Try respect”. As the price of Brent crude surged to over $112 a barrel and Asian markets spiraled at the open at the prospect of mutually assured destruction of the continent’s most vital oil and gas infrastructure, Trump announced on Monday that U.S. envoys were having “IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with an unnamed “senior Iranian official” and were close to “a total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East”. He added that, therefore, he would postpone his threat to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. The news came as a surprise to many people, not least of whom were Iranian officials themselves, who denied having had any diplomatic contact with the United States. Sources close to either side were also unaware that any communication had taken place.
Iran’s foreign ministry pointed to the continued buildup of U.S. troops in the region as cause for deep skepticism regarding Trump’s intentions. Diplomats from Pakistan and Turkey offered to mediate as Iranian officials reportedly told them that they had already been tricked twice by the U.S. and “don’t want to be fooled again.” Israeli media speculated that the ‘top’ official involved was Iran’s speaker of parliament, who in turn dismissed the pronouncement as “fakenews” that Trump is using to “manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.” Iranian media quoted top military officials who interpreted Trump’s turnabout as a sign of the IRGC’s tactical advantage, noting that Trump backed off his ultimatum “after Iran’s military threats became credible”. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that Trump, “out of fear of Iran’s response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum.” Markets reacted predictably to Trump’s turnabout, surging upward as TACO investors bought the dip and Brent crude settled below $100 for the first time in two weeks. Meanwhile, Israel continued its push for territorial expansion as the IDF bombed six bridges spanning the Litani river, effectively cutting Lebanon in two; international human rights groups warned of another Gaza-style ethnic cleansing as the IDF razed villages to depopulate its planned ‘buffer zone’ between the Litani and Israel’s northern border.
Declaring to reporters in the Oval Office that “we’ve won this war,” Trump reiterated his claims on Tuesday as the U.S. announced the deployment of 2,000 troops from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the region, sparking fears of an imminent ground war. Trump said that the Iranians “want to make a deal so badly…you have no idea how badly.” Even White House staffers were scratching their heads after Trump claimed that they gave him a “very big present worth a tremendous amount of money” related to oil and gas as a signal that the U.S. was talking to “the right people.” Iran responded with actions rather than words, launching at least nine successive waves of missiles at targets throughout the Gulf region that broke through Israel’s Iron Dome at multiple points, including a direct hit on Tel Aviv that injured several people; strikes on the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq, killing six Peshmerga fighters; and drone swarms that overwhelmed defenses in Bahrain, Kuwait, and UAE, injuring five UAE service members and killing a Moroccan contractor. With Pakistan acting as an intermediary, the Trump Administration sent Iran a 15-point peace plan Tuesday, modeled on an older proposal that Iran rejected before the 12-Day War.
Stocks opened slightly higher Wednesday on hopes for the peace plan, which fizzled shortly after Araghchi appeared on state TV to say that while some messages have been passed back and forth via intermediaries, the Iranian government had not engaged in talks to end the war, and did “not plan on any negotiations.” Iranian state TV quoted an anonymous official who stated that Iran would end the war “when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met.” Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari openly mocked the Trump Administration for continuing to report on nonexistent talks, saying, “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?” Iran’s official response was a counterproposal that laid out 5 points of negotiation, including: an end to the fighting and the assassination of its officials, guarantees that no other war is started against it, reparations for the current conflict, and Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz. Trump doubled down on the idea that negotiations were being had, saying they want to make a deal but are afraid “they’ll be killed by their own people.” Araghchi appeared on TV to again dispel the notion and reaffirm Iran’s position: “We want the war to end, but on our terms, in a way that ensures it will not be repeated, and that our enemies learn a lesson, so that they will not even contemplate attacking Iran again. And secondly, the damage suffered by the people of Iran must be compensated.” On Thursday, Trump announced that he would be extending the deadline for another 10 days; while still launching several bombing runs a day on Iran, Trump said he will hold off on bombing energy infrastructure, giving a diplomatic approach until at least April 6 to re-open the Strait.Iran leverages control over Strait of Hormuz chokepoint to establish ‘Tehran Tollbooth’, challenging U.S. economic hegemony; Over $2 billion of insider trades detected in oil market minutes before Trump ceasefire post. In addition to its tactical accomplishments, Iran is leveraging its geographic power to challenge United States hegemony over regional and global markets as it tightened its hold on the Strait of Hormuz this week, turning back at least one ship bound for Pakistan because it “lacked permission” from “Iran’s maritime authority.” Around 20,000 sailors are still stranded in the Persian Gulf after Iranian sea drone attacks on several ships during the first two weeks of the war dissuaded pilots and insurers from taking the risk of crossing. This week, after Tehran officially notified the United Nations International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” ships which “neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran” nor belong to the United States or Israel would be granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian escort ships have been diverting traffic away from the open shipping lane towards a “safe corridor” located within Iranian national waters. There, the IRGC is able tovisually inspect boats and approve them for passage, and also charge fees to guarantee safety as they pass through a war zone (resulting in the name by which Lloyd’s List has dubbed this stretch of water: “Tehran’s Tollbooth”). At least two ships have passed successfully through the route, reportedly paying Iran around $2 million each, denominated in Chinese yuan.
Marco Rubio denounced the move, calling the tollbooth ‘illegal’; technically, however, the legal questions surrounding it are much more nuanced, as the most navigable route through the Strait for large ships does fall within Iran’s sovereign national waters. As the deepening of the oil shock is hitting Asian countries hard, with the Philippines declaring a national energy emergency and Japan at or near critical reserve levels, Iran’s statement establishing sovereignty over the Strait simultaneously acknowledges a new role it has assumed in the international community, and compels the international community to acknowledge its power over a global resource chokepoint at a critical time when the U.S. and Israel insist that the Iranian regime is in a state of collapse. Former Defense Secretary James Mattis acknowledged Friday that this complicates Trump’s plans for a swift and easy exit from the war, as he opined thatending the war now would effectively cede control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. IRGC hardlinerMohammad Bagher Zolghadr was also appointed to replace Ali Larijani as Iran’s top national security adviser this week, in another public demonstration of the continued integrity of the Iranian state. The Iranian parliament is currently drafting a law that would establish formal legal status and a regulatory framework for the tollbooth. Speaking at a Saudi investment conference on Friday, Trump said Iran will have to “open up the Strait of Trump,” correcting and then de-correcting himself as he added, “Excuse me, I’m so sorry. Such a terrible mistake. The fake news will say he accidentally said. No, there’s no accidents with me. Not too many.”
A series of suspicious trades that came to pass just before Trump announced “negotiations” with Iran were taking place has captured the attention of pundits and market watchdogs, who have been scratching their heads over what Trump’s odd gambit over ceasefire negotiations was meant to accomplish. Trading in stocks and oil futures recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume around 15 minutes before Trump made his announcement. Robert Reich noted how the strategically placed trades— all made between 6:48 and 6:51 EST, about 10-15 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social post announcing the postponement of strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure — simultaneously brought the price of oil down while boosting the value of futures contracts in a way that could only have been intentionally done by someone with prior knowledge of Trump’s statement. The person or persons who made these trades walked away with gains of over $1.5 billion in value, made in just under 3 minutes. Reich also notes that this is hardly the first time this has happened, and noted patterns of such trades going all the way back to Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. Ron Filipkowski examined trades in the immediate wake of Trump’s announcement, finding a total of $3 trillion in market cap generated in the S&P 500 alone in the first 56 minutes after Trump’s announcement. CNN found that another anonymous trader had made over $967,000 on the Polymarket prediction market platform by placing strategic trades just before major war events, such as Israeli strikes in October 2024, the 12-Day War in June 2025, and just before the start of the Iran war in the early hours of February 28. Senator Chris Murphy called attention to the phenomenon this week on the Senate floor, calling it “mind-blowing corruption.” A pair of bipartisan bills were introduced in the House and Senate this week that would prohibit sitting lawmakers from trading in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket for the duration of their term.ICE Agents now at an airport near you as DHS shutdown critically strains TSA operations. Forty days into the Department of Homeland Security shutdown — as Congress continues to fight over ICE and Border Patrol funding in light of the agencies’ controversial use of militarized, authoritarian tactics in U.S. cities — Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to authorize funding of TSA payrolls. Over 50,000 TSA workers have been working full-time without pay for nearly 40 days, leaving larger airports strained and even shutting smaller, regional airports as workers quit TSA in droves. More than 450 TSA agents have quit their jobs in the last six weeks as workers are forced to look for other jobs that would help them make ends meet during their furloughs. Many more workers are staying employed but maximizing their sick day limits as they “call out” from the job. Some airports are now averaging callouts of up to 40%, resulting in some of the longest airport wait times in history. Acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill testified before Congress this week on the struggles that TSA workers are currently going through, describing how many workers have been sleeping in their cars, selling plasma, lost childcare and defaulted on loans during the shutdown. Allegedly inspired by the suggestions of a call-in guest on a right-wing talk show, Trump began deploying ICE agents to airports on Monday to help cover TSA staffing shortages; he had also unsuccessfully gambled on the notion that tapping the controversial agency for such public duties would force Democrats to give up their deadlock and pass ICE funding without reforms. Data collected this week by the Washington Post suggests their presence is doing little to relieve airport wait times, as putting agents on entirely new tasks and stations after just two days of training tends not to translate into actual efficacyon the job. Pictures of ICE agents standing idly behind TSA workers who were doing their jobs have gone viral on social media. As LaGuardia TSA union president Kyle Pigott put it, “Why do they need riot gear to move a bag? [ICE] is the reason that we’re not getting paid…and now I’m working next to that person. And they’re getting paid to do nothing.”Democrats criticized the hasty onboarding of ICE agents as political window-dressing instead of a practical solution to the problem. Inevitably, ICE-related problems of immigrant harassment and family separation have been surfacing at airports, as arrests during regular pre-flight checks have increased over the past four weeks. A case of family separation at San Francisco Airport this week, where TSA workers tipped off ICE on a migrant mother and daughter under detention orders who had planned to fly domestically, is shedding light on a broader problem of interagency data sharing and the consolidation of citizens’ private data under DHS.
The Perfect Storm - Tracking crisis dynamics in the global economy
Iran War Oil Shock hits Asia, triggering global inflation alarms. Asian economies are bearing the brunt of the contraction in oil supply that has been precipitated by the Iran war; not only in fuel stocks, but primarily in oil-derivative raw materials such as naphtha, which Asia sources primarily from the Gulf and forms the basis for nearly every manufactured product, from plastics to resins, packaging to petrochemicals and more; triggering panic buying in everything from ramen and furniture to garbage bags. In China, synthetic rubber futures surged more than 40% as absolute supply constraints are set to curb output by about one-third by April due to the war. The OECD released its interim outlook report this week, warning that the war “will test the resilience of the global economy” as inflation projections for the remainder of 2026 were revised upward to 4.2%. A global sell-off in stocks on Friday moved both Nasdaq and the Dow into official correction territory, 9 out of 11 sectors of the S&P 500 saw declines of 1% or more, and even ‘safe-haven’ metals like gold and silver continued their downward slide, capping off a fifth consecutive week of losses driven by absolute material supply constraints. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed efforts by the U.S. to manipulate ‘paper oil’ value chains through market means, saying: “We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign…But let’s see if they can turn that into ‘actual fuel’ at the pump — or maybe even print gas molecules!”
Liquidity Trapped: The slow-burning private credit crisis nearly tipped into full-blown panic mode this week as Apollo Global Management closed the gates on investors as redemption requests on its $25 billion flagship Apollo Debt Solutions fund topped 11.8%. Apollo paid investors just 45 cents on the dollar, while other funds such as Madcap were only able to redeem requests as low as 31 cents per dollar invested. Up to $5 billion in private retail investment is now locked behind an illiquidity wall as a broad asset revaluation looms in private equity. While it is possible that the contagion from private credit could be relatively contained, the opacity of most ‘black box’ private credit funds make it anyone’s guess as to how many sectors are exposed, and how much exposure to risk exists in the system. Since 2008, some backstops had been built to help prevent 2008-style cascading shocks in the shadow banking system; most models, however, assume all else being equal in the wider macroeconomy, and the effects of separate macro shocks, such as inflation due to an war-driven oil crisis, are as yet unknown.
Roiling Bond Markets and a Challenged Petrodollar: War in the Middle East is posing fundamental challenges to many long-held assumptions in the world order, and the assumption of safety projected by US Treasuries is no exception. Bond volatility has surged as the war progresses, hitting recent highs; and as investors run for high ground, market depth particularly in short-term bond derivatives and securities has fallen by as much as 80%, echoing similar liquidity issues in stocks. Given the amount of risk in the system, recent policy moves from commercial banks to relax capital requirements, says Moody’s, are not likely to trend positive in the near or long term.
All About Affordability: Loan struggles, delinquencies hit pandemic-era highs. Household and personal debt across the board are running into serious problems as the affordability crunch hits more and more of the conventional ‘middle class.’ Mortgages in serious delinquency have hit its highest level since 2022; over 870,000 loans are past due 90 days or more, a spike of 25% in the last four months. More than 9 million Americans are delinquent or have defaulted on their student loans, bringing credit scores down across the board.
MOVEMENT TRACKER
Movement for AI data center moratorium gains steam, slows buildouts by half in 2026. On Wednesday, March 25, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced bipartisan legislation to impose a moratorium on the construction of new artificial intelligence data centers. The pause on construction mandated by the Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act would remain in effect “until strong national safeguards are in place to protect workers, consumers, and communities, defend privacy and civil rights, and ensure these technologies do not harm our environment.” Recent polling from the Pew Institute shows that more Americans than not perceive that over a spectrum of different types of effects, AI tends to have a negative effect on the environment and quality of life. Sanders argued that a majority of lawmakers were ‘way behind’ in their understanding of AI and its implications, and that “We cannot sit back and allow a handful of billionaire Big Tech oligarchs to make decisions that will reshape our economy, our democracy and the future of humanity.” According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, the data center building boom slowed to a crawl in 2025, with new construction announcements dropping by half in the last 3 months of the year. While the Sanders/AOC bill aims to enforce protections on a federal level, state-level efforts such as Illinois’ POWER (Protecting Our Water, Energy, and Ratepayers) Act establishes sweeping protections for communities adjacent to data centers in the state, including shifting energy costs from consumers to data center companies, safeguarding against water shortages, and addressing a lack of corporate transparency from companies hoping to bring their business to Illinois. Wikipedia authors adopted a new policy on March 20 that prohibits the use of AI for writing Wikipedia articles, restricting AI assistance to proofreading only. Residents of Ypsilanti, Michigan are pushing back against a new data center being built to support nuclear weapons research at the University of Michigan. Many fear that the town may become a target due to the nature of the work being done at the center.
From the Vatican, Pope Leo XIV quietly shepherds a movement for peace, social and economic justice. Now less than a year in office, Pope Leo XIV, a native of Chicago, Illinois, and the first English-speaking Pope in generations, appears to be making himself more relevant to world events, and particularly to issues that concern the world’s youth, than his predecessors. Consciously or unconsciously, Pope Leo has quietly positioned himself in opposition to radical right-wing Catholics like Pete Hegseth and Steve Bannon as he advocates for a return to conscience for humanity. Last week, as six servicemembers returned from Iran in Trump’s new “secret ceremony” protocol that serves to obfuscate real numbers of casualties in U.S. wars, Pope Leo called on Christians during Lent to examine their conscience, especially those “who bear serious responsibility in armed conflicts.” He also took issue with depictions of war that transform reality into “a video game,” ostensibly in reference to a White House meme that juxtaposed the bombing of Iran with Nintendo game cutscenes. The pontiff was very clear when he called on the media and journalists "to show the sufferings that war always brings to the people; to show the face of war and to relate it through the eyes of the victims,” and not “become propaganda” in wartime. The Pope has become a central figure around whom American bishops are organizing against war, in support of immigrants, and for social justice, and yet is secularized enough to be a bridge between Muslims and Jews, as well as many other denominational faiths that fall under the “Christian” form. This week, he said Mass at the wealthy tax-haven enclave of Monaco, the centerpiece of which was a homily that connected wars to, and as a result of, the “idolatry of power and money.” He has interests in exploring AI and thinking deeply about what the new technology may mean for ethics that are deeply rooted in the faith he represents. Recently, Peter Thiel brought his technofascist “Antichrist” lecture series to the vicinity of the Vatican, where he was met with cold opposition from cardinals and lay people. In Monaco, Leo XIV decried the ‘great chasm’ between rich and poor, and called on the wealthy to help the needy. The Pope has explicitly called universal health care a “moral imperative,” and when presented with the Liberty Medal on the United States’ 250th anniversary, declined to return to his home country to accept it. Suffering under the throes of a U.S.-imposed oil embargo that has crippled its energy infrastructure, Marxist Cuba has reached out to Pope Leo to act as an intercessor on its behalf with leaders in the United States.
