Multipolarity
Week of September 18-24, 2026
Published in conjunction with The Nation magazine, TRACKING THE CRISIS is a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
Geopolitical realignments in evidence at UN General Assembly as U.S. struggles in Iran conflict, emboldened countries overtly oppose U.S.-Israel hegemony. World leaders gathered in New York this week for the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, which opened on Tuesday, September 22 and will continue until Monday, September 28.
The meeting of 193 member nations, the world’s largest international body and the main policymaking forum for the rules-based world order which has prevailed for the last 80 years, comes at a critical time as the two wars in Iran and Ukraine, the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the global oil shock, and Trump’s erratic approach to both trade and military action have destabilized international relations and fostered increasingly overt distrust in the United States’ leadership role, as well as dissatisfaction with the inability of the United Nations Security Council to effect any kind of mediating influence on the looming danger of global conflagration. Analysts say that the UN General Assembly is gaining more power and influence on the world stage due to the continuing gridlock on the UN Security Council and the growing shift towards a multipolar world order.
Days ahead of the meeting, Trump escalated his rhetoric toward Iran at the same time that several revelations, developments and strategic blunders dealt even more blows to the United States’ credibility as a military and economic hegemon. Last week, days after the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council over concerns about its nuclear program, Iran scored a diplomatic victory as 45 countries voted to elect Iran to the IAEA’s steering committee over the United States, which received only 30 votes.
On Friday, September 18, while weighing a “big decision” regarding escalation of military action against Iran, Trump signed a bill to extend sanctions on Iran to 2031, while on the same day the United States informed several European allies, who are themselves preparing for a potential confrontation with Russia, that they should expect a wait of up to five years for key weapons deliveries due to depletion of their own weapons stockpiles. Also on Friday, a Washington Post exclusive revealed that more U.S. troops have died in the Iran conflict than the official count of 18, stating that military officials had told the Post of at least five unacknowledged deaths, bringing the actual death toll to at least 23.
Also on Friday, a CNN report revealed that the U.S. military had ‘accidentally’ nearly started an armed conflict with China earlier this spring. According to the report, U.S. forces prepared to board a Chinese vessel in the Middle East, in the midst of active operations against Iran, on a piece of intelligence that indicated nuclear weapons components were on board – a false report that was later found to have been generated by an AI chatbot.
Over three hundred thousand people rallied in Tehran in a massive show of defiance against the United States on Friday as Iran announced the formation of a new volunteer civilian militia named “Janfaday-e Iran,” or the “ones who sacrifice their lives for Iran,” that would receive limited military training and serve alongside the IRGC and Basij forces as an added layer of national defense in the event of a ground invasion. Various units marched in uniform alongside missile platforms and armored carriers, including a large contingent of Iranian women in hijab brandishing AK-47 rifles. IRGC spokesman Hassan Hassanzadeh claimed that up to 30 million people, one-third of Iran’s total population, had registered for the service, while external estimates from opposition media ranged from a minimum of 4 million to more than 21 million registrants.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s security chief and advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, gave an exclusive interview to Al Jazeera on Saturday, September 19 confirming that Iran had communicated to the United States, via Qatar, three central conditions for ending the war: an end to the war “on all fronts” (including Lebanon and Yemen), the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad, and an end to the U.S. blockade of military ports. He also warned that “Trump’s threats will not achieve any results” and that Iran is “prepared for a decisive war.”
Meanwhile, thousands of Yemenis marched in Sanaa in support of Ansarallah (known in the West as ‘the Houthis’) and against Saudi Arabia as the two sides fought for control of strategic points in the Kahboub mountains of western Yemen, overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia issued attack warnings for the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Jeddah, as Ansarallah claimed attacks targeting Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu and ‘sensitive’ sites in Riyadh. Mahdi al-Mashat, head of Ansarallah’s Supreme Political Council, issued a statement demanding an end to Saudi Arabia’s “unjust blockade” of Yemen, declaring a new strategic equation that will match the Saudi-led coalition’s actions “blockade for blockade, and escalation for escalation.”
On Sunday, September 20, Iran’s central military command revealed that it had received “information” regarding U.S. and Israeli preparations for a “large-scale strike” on Iran, and warned that any attack would lead to sustained retaliation against U.S. military installations and interests, including U.S. allies in the Gulf and beyond. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warned that Iran has developed “new weapons” the world has never seen that would bring “new capabilities to the battlefield” and “change the geography of the war,” adding that if it came to pass, “the world would be surprised.” Independent journalist Zufiqar Ali, host of the YouTube channel Transition Protocol, claimed he had received information from officials close to the matter that Iran had recently received significant weapons aid from China and North Korea.
The U.S. State Department issued a high-level security alert over the weekend advising all U.S. citizens and personnel in Iran to leave the country immediately, citing imminent danger of military escalation, as Trump told reporters his three options on the table were “to obliterate Iran, letting it rot economically or reach a deal.” On Monday, reports emerged that Trump had weighed sending U.S. and UK air support to bomb Houthi forces in Yemen on behalf of Saudi Arabia; according to insiders, Trump had “flip-flopped” back and forth on his decision multiple times as planes were loaded with bombs and readied on the tarmac, before Trump ultimately decided to call off the attack.
It was in this atmosphere of maximally heightened tensions that the UN General Assembly kicked off on Tuesday, September 22. Commentator Vivian Salama, writing for the Atlantic, noted that these proceedings were taking place at a time when “nations that were once firmly in the American orbit are concluding that they cannot rely on the United States to provide the same leadership, markets, technology, and military protection that it has for decades.” Even the United States’ closest allies, she noted, are “building military capabilities, diversifying trade, developing new domestic industries, and forging relationships that reduce their dependence on Washington,” all in preparation for a “world in which the United States is no longer indispensable – not simply during Trump’s presidency but afterward as well, regardless of who occupies the White House.”
Iranian foreign minister Araghchi, who had arrived in New York the day before, met on the sidelines with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff as the official proceedings began with a frank speech from outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who warned that the “fault lines in our world are widening” as “humanity faces an unprecedented convergence of threats.” He framed the challenge which lay before the United Nations as four “tests” of power: “The power over war and peace. The power that concentrates wealth and drives inequality. The power fueling climate chaos and the war on nature. And the power unleashed by artificial intelligence.”
Without calling out the United States or Israel by name, Guterres stated that the titanic events of the past year has shown that “even the strongest nations have their limits,” and that working towards a better future must begin with the “recognition, especially by superpowers, that their power isn’t so super.” He lamented how “geopolitical divides” and the involvement of superpowers have “paralyzed” the UN Security Council, “creating an environment of impunity” in which certain countries “believe they can do whatever they want because nothing will happen to them.” Without a shift towards a “networked world” based on cooperation and interdependence, which “recognizes that no power can solve today’s challenges alone,” Guterres said the world risks fracturing into rival blocs that hold vital resources hostage, creating a situation with “devastating impact on many economies around the world.”
Brazilian president Lula da Silva took the podium next with a pointed broadside at the elephant in the room, again without calling out the United States by name. “The feeling that drives me today is indignation,” he said in his opening remarks, denouncing the “genocide of women and children perpetrated by Netanyahu’s government in Gaza” which he said is inflicting trauma on the Palestinian people that will be carried for “generations.” He criticized the veto power given to certain nations on the UN Security Council, which he said has held the international community hostage to a body that “does not fulfill its role.” Saying “concessions to the law of the strongest have gone too far,” Lula noted that “war is not a continuation of politics by other means, but is a total failure of politics.” Closer to home, he decried “external interference” in Brazil’s upcoming elections, referencing his own fight against military dictatorship and stressing that hard-won “Brazilian democracy belongs to Brazilians.” He added that in Latin America and the Caribbean, “geographic proximity to the world’s greatest military power is inescapable, especially in a context of renewed hegemonic ambitions,” calling for Venezuelan self-determination and declaring pointedly that “Brazil does not belong in anyone’s backyard.”
Trump took the stage next with a 35-minute speech filled with false claims and bellicose rhetoric towards his adversaries, speaking of himself as a leader who “made peace” (referring to the Kushner-authored Gaza “peace” deal) while also threatening to "annihilate" Iran, prompting a walkout by the Iranian delegation. He next turned his sights on Cuba, calling it an “absolutely failed state” whose regime “will fall,” prompting a walkout from the Cuban delegation as well. He also touted a trilateral deal made with Denmark and Greenland just before the assembly which he claimed gave the United States “permanent military control” over the island he had threatened to annex earlier this year; while the agreement allows the U.S. access rights to build permanent military bases on Greenland, it also asserts the sovereignty of the Greenlandic people should they choose to become independent in the future. He also dismissed concerns over AI and climate change, and once again denied that the U.S. was running low on munitions, despite last week’s Inspector General report that confirmed the shortfall.
Peace organization CodePink, as well as other watchdog organizations, noted that Trump’s speech contained at least four explicit violations of the UN Charter: threatening to “annihilate” Iran violates the prohibition on “the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state” (Article 2.4), while his statement that his administration “is seeking a fundamental change” in Cuba violates the charter’s non-intervention clause. Likewise, his boast regarding the “massive military operation penetrating deep into Venezuela’s capital” last January to abduct sitting president Nicolás Maduro and his wife also violates Article 2.4, and his boast about taking Venezuelan oil, which he underscored with the phrase “to the victor goes the spoils,” violates Article 2.1 which asserts the sovereign equality of all UNGA members. Commentators also pointed out Trump’s threats against the International Criminal Court, which he called in his speech an “evil group of people” and a “rogue organization,” key members of which the U.S. State Department sanctioned earlier this year, violate Article 70 of the ICC Statute which prohibits retaliation and/or obstruction of justice.
Other speeches on the first day included notably explicit denunciations of the Israeli government and the genocide in Gaza from around the Islamic world and beyond, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, who warned that “This Israeli government’s expansionist appetite is now a regional threat” as it aimed to create a “new territorial reality” in Gaza as well as its occupations in southern Lebanon and Syria. Turkish president Erdoğan denounced Israel’s siege of Gaza in the strongest terms, calling it “the most inhumane and shameful concentration camp of our time,” and issued a dire warning regarding Israel: “We are faced with a genocidal mindset that can never get enough of killing. We are faced with an extremely serious situation. No one with a sense of humanity, mercy, or compassion, no one guided by justice and conscience, can possibly remain indifferent to this picture.”
French president Emmanuel Macron, in his last speech to the UN as head of state, aimed his comments right at Trump in no uncertain terms regarding Trump’s claim to “peace” in Gaza, saying: “Some clap themselves on the back for a pretend peace, but that peace hasn’t opened for one second the humanitarian corridors… Let’s consider this spectacle that shames us all.” Macron reiterated his support for the International Criminal Court and urged UN member nations to reject ‘defeatism’ and stand firm against “the abuse of power by empires,” saying: “We cannot simply accept this new order of impunity, which some are trying to erect.”
In a separate announcement, the French embassy declared the creation of a joint initiative with Mexico to limit or abolish the right of veto for permanent members of the UN Security Council, which has been endorsed by 128 countries, just one signature short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass in the General Assembly. On Tuesday, the UK became the second permanent Security Council member to sign on to the initiative.
On Wednesday, September 23, the second day of the UN General Assembly session saw Iran’s retort to Trump as Iranian president Pezeshkian took the stage in a speech denouncing Trump’s belligerent rhetoric and reasserting Iran’s right to defend itself from U.S. and Israeli aggression without seeking “anyone’s permission or approval.”
Pezeshkian began by saying that he had planned to deliver a different set of remarks, but changed them after hearing Trump’s speech the previous day. Holding up pictures of the 168 schoolchildren murdered in Minab on the first day of the war from a U.S. strike, Pezeshkian said, “The United States president described us as terrorists. We have been the victims of terrorism,” as the U.S. delegate walked out of the chamber. He denounced the West’s hypocrisy regarding the United States and Israel, saying: “They kill, we are sanctioned. Iran did not seek special treatment but wanted equal rights”; and denounced the fact that Iran is being scrutinized for its nuclear program while Israel holds dozens of nuclear weapons in defiance of international law. Pezeshkian said that in the face of such injustices, “Iran must be powerful so as to avoid being threatened, to avoid its future being threatened… a world without power is dangerous, but a world that only understands the language of war and bullying will not be safe.” Sticking to Iran’s ‘dual-track’ strategy of diplomacy and force, he said that “we are ready for dialogue and diplomacy and negotiations without accepting the language of force,” concluding with a direct message to Trump that “we will never bow our head, or bend the knee.”
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei also clarified details regarding Trump’s mention of a reported three-hour meeting between Araghchi and Witkoff that had taken place on Tuesday, where he denied Araghchi had met Witkoff face to face, but simply reiterated through Qatari mediators the three essential conditions for returning to the table that had been communicated to U.S. officials earlier in the week. While Trump asserted that the meeting was “very good” and “very productive,” Tehran did not gloss over the threats made by the Trump Administration that also hung over the talks. Iranian security chief Rezaei told Iranian media on Wednesday that any resumption of formal talks with Washington continued to be dependent on the United States meeting Iran’s conditions. He also responded to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of new sanctions against Iranian airlines earlier this week, warning countries against joining in with the United States’ “adventurism” and saying: “If countries in the region cooperate with air transport sanctions against Iran, the airports and aviation routes of those countries will likewise face closures and disruptions in response.”
Likewise, Araghchi reported on X that he had met with EU representative Kaja Kallas to warn against collaboration with the United States and Israel, posting a screenshot of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s post boasting about European military support during the war and warning of “the severe long-term consequences of facilitating and supporting Israeli-U.S. war crimes, whether in Gaza or Iran,” adding that Rutte “should know by now that grovelling never satisfies a bully.”
Also on Wednesday, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy took the stage to rally support for the war against Russia, calling Putin “patient zero” of an epidemic of war and instability he said threatens all of Europe. During his remarks, Russia struck Zelenskyy’s party headquarters in Kyiv, part of a string of attacks on the capital that killed two and injured 43 others.
As Trump welcomed Chinese president Xi Jinping to Washington for talks aimed at mediating the on-again, off-again trade war between the two economic powers, Spanish president Pedro Sánchez took the stage at the UN Wednesday, dedicating his address to the global fight against fascism and the rise of right-wing movements, warning against the growing power of “selfish, ignorant, and cruel” forces threatening global humanity and dragging the world back into a “dark past.” He also endorsed the French-Mexican initiative to abolish the Security Council veto, saying: “We need to reform the Security Council so that all of the regions in the world have fair representation.”
On Wednesday, Sánchez joined New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for a special meeting touting an international commitment to “building an economy for the many.” Sánchez noted the importance of partnerships between left-leaning progressives at all levels, saying: “This matters because there are politicians on both sides of the Atlantic trying to convince working people that their problem is another working person – someone born somewhere else, someone who earns even less than they do. It is one of the oldest political tricks in history: Make people look sideways so they never look up.” Mamdani said that by working together, progressives and leftists in power can achieve “a better world, bringing the movement for equality and justice to more distant horizons”; with Sánchez chiming in in agreement, saying: “That is why the powerful fear us, because every day we show that there is another possible path and that it works.”
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered his address to a largely empty chamber at the UN General Assembly as many countries participated in an organized mass walk-out), stopping in New York for only six hours as he is still wanted under an arrest warrant for war crimes from the ICC. Netanyahu slammed Mamdani ahead of the visit for reiterating his belief that Netanyahu is a war criminal and should be arrested in an exclusive interview the mayor held this week with CNN.
Fuel prices, rate hikes trigger affordability spiral as inflation woes trigger bankruptcies, farm crisis ahead of midterms. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise this week as the 10-year yield hit 5.14% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2004, hitting stocks, banks, commercial credit, and the housing market as oil-driven inflation continued to squeeze everyday consumers in a ‘double whammy’ of economic shocks just in time for the midterm elections.
Japan’s era of ultra-low bond rates, which have underwritten global markets for decades, came to an end this week as Japanese 30-year bond yields hit 3.075% on Thursday morning, its highest level since 1996 as a global bond sell-off reflected collapsing investor confidence and higher risk for global stock markets that have soared to record highs over the past several years on a wave of cheap credit that has now broken against the implacable wall of energy scarcity and persistent inflation. Japanese investment firm SoftBank saw its credit default swap spread – the price of insuring its debt against default – jump 400 basis points this week, up from 280 basis points in June and a looming sign of trouble for Japan’s largest private company.
Even short-term U.S. Treasury yields, which Treasury Secretary Bessent has attempted to leverage in recent weeks in a buyback scheme to calm rising long-term yields, have risen as demand for U.S. debt in general has cooled, reducing the spread between the long and short end of the yield curve to just over 50 basis points. This puts the bond market at risk of “inversion,” a phenomenon where short-term yield rates cross above the targets for longer-term bonds, which according to market orthodoxy spells one of the tell-tale signs of recession and crisis. Market watchers have now priced in the elevated risk, expecting yields to rise even higher as little to no relief for inflation or borrowing costs appears to be on the horizon.
An OECD report released this week indicated that due to the oil shock, inflation is expected to rise even faster than expected in 2027, raising expectations for more central bank interventions to hike core interest rates and constrain access to credit even further. RSM economist Joe Bruselas noted this week that “we have undergone a structural transformation” towards a “regime change” of effectively permanent high inflation and interest rates, which returns the global economy to conditions last seen just before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.
This week, three of the global economy’s most influential bodies – the OECD, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Institute for Finance (IIF) – issued a stark warning on Wednesday regarding soaring interest costs on the approximately $365 trillion in global debt undergirded by deficits incurred by the world’s most advanced capitalist economies, as their balance sheets are beginning to look more like the crisis-hit economies of the underdeveloped world over the last several decades of the structural adjustment era. The report stated that “the U.S., France, the UK, and Japan face persistently large deficits and rising interest expenses – challenges long associated with debt-distressed emerging market sovereigns.”
U.S. stock and equity markets are beginning to feel the bite as stocks took a nosedive on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index falling over 300 points, followed by tumbles on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on interest rate woes and troubles in the AI sector, which is now experiencing shortages in chips, semiconductors and building materials to support the data center buildout due to supply chain issues.
Mortgage rates in the United States soared over 7% this week, its highest level in two years, putting added pressure on an already near-frozen housing market where new sales have stalled for lack of qualified buyers; the most recent report from the National Association of Realtors shows that sales actually declined by 2% in August. Allianz senior economist Dan North notes that while the higher yields give savers marginally higher returns on their money market accounts (about 0.37% at current rates), it “sure does crush housing, and it [impacts] on all those personal consumer loans, the credit cards and so forth.”
Financial analyst Danielle DiMartino Booth reported this week that small business bankruptcies soared up to 64% last month as the Fed’s rate hike put pressure on commercial debt service just as freight surcharges and rising materials costs hit small producers with added shocks due to the fuel squeeze. Sixteen trucking companies, both big and small, filed for bankruptcy in September alone as diesel prices have soared and falling revenue has wreaked a “silent toll” on the logistics industry. Meritage Hospitality Group, which operates 314 Wendy’s fast food franchises in 15 states, filed for bankruptcy this week, affecting over 9,000 jobs.
Personal debt service has fared even worse for many consumers, hitting older borrowers particularly hard as bankruptcy rates for elder Americans have risen 53% over the past three years, with fully half of all personal bankruptcies filed by borrowers 60 and older. Middle-aged borrowers have fared little better, with 50% of new bankruptcies filed by consumers between the ages of 40-59, the highest level since 2017.
Shoppers interviewed by ABC News this week lamented that they “can’t catch a break” as rising fuel costs and price hikes for essential goods and services push the affordability crisis past the breaking point for many U.S. consumers. A series of charts published on Substack this week show that between 2000 and 2025, costs for hospital services rose a staggering 281.5%; college tuition and fees rose 197%, childcare is up 159%, medical services up 147%, and housing is up 111%. On top of those, deep cuts to social services such as healthcare and food assistance, enacted this year through Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, have overwhelmed working people already struggling with the rising cost of consumer goods. This week, the Trump Administration announced that an additional 750,000 people will be kicked off the Affordable Care Act health coverage marketplace as part of the federal government’s continuing effort to “root out fraud.”
Last Friday, the U.S. Conference of Mayors released the results of their National Affordability Survey, which gathered data from 113 municipalities across the country regarding challenges to affordability for city residents. According to the report, a whopping 96% of mayors reported that their residents are concerned or very concerned about the affordability crisis, with an equal percentage attributing the major cause to housing costs. Nearly 7 in 10 respondents reported increases in food insecurity and food bank usage, while two-thirds of mayors reported that local businesses are struggling due to the lack of disposable income their residents have to spend within their communities. Nearly half of all respondents (46%) reported challenges in attracting and retaining workers within their city.
Even middle to higher income consumers, who have been the backbone of the U.S. economy for several years running, are feeling the squeeze as shoppers downgrade their brand choices and change their spending habits to conserve funds as the cost of everything, from groceries to auto repairs, has skyrocketed. A CNBC survey conducted this summer found that 41% of consumers earning between $100,000 and $249,999 per year are now living paycheck to paycheck as consumer and business debt, student loans, and higher gas prices cut into their ability to save or afford big-ticket goods.
Dollar General, once an icon of struggling and economically depressed communities, has shifted their marketing strategies to attract higher-income buyers as the share of six-figure earners within the discount retail market has increased. Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos commented to The Street that “the interesting thing with this economy, because of the other sustained headwinds of inflation over the years that have passed, [is that] even that middle to upper middle is acting more like a lower-income shopper these days.” This week, Kroger pulled their stocks of Red Bull and Boar’s Head deli foods off their shelves entirely over pricing disputes as the retailer pressed suppliers to lower their wholesale prices to keep consumer goods at competitive prices.
U.S. farmers have become one of the most prominent sectors hardest hit by the Trump economy as a perfect storm of soaring diesel prices, tariffs and fertilizer scarcity have erased agricultural margins, devastating local economies across the Midwest as farmers fail to break even. A Congressional Joint Economic Committee Minority Report released in July found that farmers spent $1.4 billion more on diesel fuel this year during the planting season for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat and rice – a 63% increase from last year. Farm bankruptcies are up 46% this year compared to 2024.
On Monday, Belarus president Alexsandr Lukashenko told the U.S. Department of Agriculture that Belarus had no potash fertilizer available to ship to U.S. farmers as Trump attempted to secure a deal for potash from Minsk after his trade war with Canada cut off 80% of the United States’ normal supply. Matt Bell, a 52-year-old farmer from North Carolina who voted for Trump in 2024, told CBS News last week that his costs have doubled since Trump’s trade war with Canada and the Iran war began, telling reporters that “we are fighting for survival… and we’re running out of options.”
The U.S. farm sector is now facing total collapse as Trump’s trade war with China, the United States’ largest agricultural trade partner, has reduced agricultural exports to China by 78% over the past three years, according to a report released by the Trump Administration’s own Department of Agriculture. The analysis states: “This single-country drop accounts for the majority of the recent contraction in overall U.S. export performance, and it marks one of the steepest market losses ever recorded for a major U.S. agricultural buyer.” The sector has also been hit by protracted drought due to climate change, which has reduced supplies of hay in places like northern Colorado, forcing farmers to import hay from farther afield and incurring increased fuel costs.
In the last two weeks, the Trump Administration and GOP lawmakers with close ties to the agricultural industry have touted the idea of enacting a diesel export ban in an effort to ease fuel prices for domestic producers and freight carriers. Bessent discussed the plan with reporters Tuesday in a press conference alongside Trump and Ukrainian president Zelenskyy. The plan has been pushed by top GOP lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Iowa Representative Ashley Hinson, who urged the use of “every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices,” including “pausing diesel exports . . . and creating a diesel relief programme to help our farmers and truckers being crushed by the high costs,” adding that “Iowa farmers shouldn’t have to foot the bill for the Iran war.”
However, oil and energy experts argue that a diesel export ban would fail to provide any significant positive impacts for U.S. fuel consumers, as “any short-term price relief – and there would be on the Gulf Coast, where most U.S. refineries are located – would be offset by higher prices elsewhere, mostly on the other coasts but also everywhere else in the world.” Some critics argue that it would blow back significantly on the U.S. economy, making it even worse over the long term. Bob McNally, a former energy adviser for the Bush Administration, explained that “you would get a short-term, abrupt collapse in pump prices” in some regions, but “the U.S. would shatter its reputation as a safe place to invest for a generation.” He likened the plan to taking a “sledgehammer” to the oil market, adding: “It would be an authentic policy error, or what I call an ‘APE.’ In fact, this would be the king of the APEs.”
Houston-based oil executive Andy Lipow argues that if Washington prevents refiners from selling overseas, refiners would pull back on their overall volume of crude oil refining to save on costs, constraining the supply of other refined products. “The price of gasoline could soar,” Lipow said. “Do not ban diesel exports. You will have a whole rash of unintended consequences.” A letter sent to the Trump Administration this week from 36 industry and business groups, including the American Petroleum Institute, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, Business Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said U.S. refiners are running at full capacity and producing more diesel than the country consumes, saying: “Export bans would lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs for American families, farmers, and truckers."
Even Trump Administration officials are skeptical of the diesel export ban; Interior Secretary Doug Burgum panned the idea last week, warning that such a ban could lead to retaliatory action from countries that export fuel to the United States, which could hurt states like California. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright echoed Lipow’s assessment, telling attendees at an event hosted by The Economist on Wednesday: “If you can’t export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce U.S. refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet fuel prices.”
Republican candidates and incumbents distance themselves from Trump as voters revolt against MAGA agenda. Facing a potential ‘bloodbath’ in the midterm elections – now just 39 days away – GOP candidates and incumbents who once rode the Trump/MAGA train to victory have begun quietly ‘tuning out’ Trump from their campaigns as the disastrous policies of the Trump Administration have begun producing significant backlash from once-loyal Republican voters.
Trump’s dismal approval rating sunk this week to a record low of 29 percent in at least one national poll, fueled by anger over the soaring cost of living and the compounding disaster in the Middle East spurred by Trump’s war of choice against Iran. In a new NBC News poll this week, 55% of voters said that their economic conditions have been worsened by Trump policies, and in the traditional GOP strongholds of rural voters, 57% say that they disapproved of how Trump has handled economic issues. A Fox News poll this week found that 73% of voters think that Trump does not have a clear strategy for ending the Iran war, and a CNN/SSRS poll found that support for the war among self-identified Republicans has dropped 13 points since March. The latest averages published by polling guru Nate Silver in his ‘Silver Bulletin’ puts Trump significantly underwater on a number of other signature issues as well, with Trump’s net approval at minus-11.0 percent on immigration, minus-26.6 percent on trade, minus-31.7 percent on the economy, and minus-44.2 percent on inflation.
This week, several Republican lawmakers, including and especially those in deep-red districts that went for Trump by double digits but are now seeing their chances grow more precarious by the day, have been noticeably “running away” from Trump and his policies on the economy and the Iran war, signaling their intention to “flip” and vote with Democrats on the next War Powers Resolution to end the war. Axios reports this week that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has privately advised GOP candidates to “stay with the team” if they can, but ultimately “do what is in the best interest for you and your state,” even if it means rhetorically distancing or even opposing Trump and other GOP members, including Thune himself.
Byron Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial nominee for the state of Florida who was endorsed by Trump in 2025, notably scrubbed all references to Trump from his campaign website this week, replacing “Enact the Trump Agenda” with a reference to affordability as his top campaign priority. Iowa House candidate Joe Mitchell, who once touted himself as a “trusted voice in the MAGA movement,” has now replaced all references to Trump with a new campaign promise to “clean up Washington and put working families first.”
According to the Washington Post, at least seven Republican candidates in battleground races have either de-emphasized or completely removed references to Trump on their campaign websites, replacing them with messages related to affordability issues, including promising to fight for “lower costs” and “increased access to healthcare.” Even in traditionally deep-red Ohio, pollster Kyle Kondik posted on X this week that the GOP’s chances in the state have shifted from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
Vice President JD Vance took to the podcast airwaves last week in an appeal to Republican voters, imploring the MAGA faithful to “give us another chance, or give us another couple of years, to continue to work on the amazing things that we’ve been doing for the past two years.” His plea was widely derided online by Democrats, comedians, and other denizens of the Internet.
Although generic congressional ballot polling for the midterms has registered a widening advantage for Democrats, with some polls registering leads of 10 points or more, analysts warn it does not necessarily translate to automatic trust or faith in traditional Democratic policies. The New York Times has dubbed the upcoming midterms the “Distrust Election,” fueled by voter anger and distrust of both Republicans and establishment Democrats, many of whom, like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, found themselves on the wrong side of community backlash on widely unpopular issues such as data centers.
While around half of likely voters still hold a relatively negative view of far-left policies or democratic socialism, swing voters who lean independent have been expressing some openness to democratic socialist candidates and policy ideas, with a Gallup poll this week finding that 43% of Americans now have a positive view of socialism, its highest rating since Gallup began polling on the question in 2010, and for the first time beating American voters’ positive view of big business, which now stands at just 35%.
Faced with waning prospects for staying in power, the Trump Administration has turned to increasingly extreme methods to try to save the MAGA coalition from disintegrating in November. While the Supreme Court voted last week to uphold a federal court injunction blocking Trump’s mail-in ballot executive order, the Trump Administration has not given up on its attempts to influence the elections in its favor.
On Tuesday, the Department of Justice submitted a court filing announcing its intention to use passport records in its efforts to scrub “non-citizens” from voter rolls, indicating that the State Department will soon file a federal register notice to share data from the Passport Services Records system with other, unnamed federal agencies.
Last week at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas, Trump made what many saw as a “desperate” pledge to cut a $5,000 “Trump Dividend” check to every American in return for a GOP victory in November, which experts estimate would cost U.S. taxpayers a total of $1.2 trillion.
The Atlantic reports on a shadowy group of Trump advisers pushing for the president to declare martial law ahead of the midterm elections.
And if all else fails, former conservative judge Michael Luttig warned in an interview with journalist Katie Couric about information he obtained from insiders that certain Republican members of the House, including possibly Speaker Mike Johnson, are considering not certifying Democratic winners of House seats when the new Congress is seated in January. Luttig called the rumored plans a potential “congressional coup,” saying that the “catastrophic end [of U.S. democracy] could well come on January 3, 2027, when Trump and his Republican congressional allies wage the final battle in Trump’s determined war to corrupt America’s democracy and deliver a lasting political victory over the Democrats for his MAGA Republican Party.”
MOVEMENT TRACKER
Austin ICE shooting sparks protests, school walkouts as victim says he hasn’t received proper medical care in detention. Protests broke out in Austin, Texas early this week after ICE agents shot and wounded 28-year-old Venezuelan man Wilber Garces Perez. Perez was reportedly driving for DoorDash when he was stopped by ICE agents who were checking license plates at an intersection in north Austin on Sunday afternoon.
Perez was reportedly taken directly into ICE custody immediately after being shot, and family members and advocates with LULAC say he did not receive full treatment for his injuries and that the bullet that struck him is still lodged in his torso. Angry crowds gathered at the site of the shooting in the hours immediately after the arrest, with a brief clash ensuing after law enforcement agents reportedly met water bottles thrown by protesters with chemical agents, before withdrawing from the scene as the protest swelled.
Further protests sprang up at Austin’s Capitol building on Monday and reverberated statewide over the course of the week, as middle and high school students staged walkouts in protest in a state still mourning the July killing of Mexican father of three Lorenzo Salgado Araujo by ICE agents in Houston. A federal judge has placed a stay on Perez’s deportation order, and a number of lawmakers including Austin Mayor Kirk Watson have made public statements condemning the shooting.
Sanders introduces “AI Superintelligence” ban bill. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Greg Casar unveiled new legislation this week that aims to pause advanced AI development, increase regulation and government monitoring of the industry, and ban the creation or use of AI “superintelligence” technologies that some researchers and industry insiders say could pose a grave threat to human wellbeing. The new bill, titled the “Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act,” would establish a cabinet-level federal Department of Artificial Intelligence to monitor and regulate potentially dangerous AI technologies, set penalties for dangerous AI development comparable to those in place for illegal nuclear weapons development, and pursue international agreements to advance global regulation of AI.
White House press pool blackout sees barred reporters’ access reinstated by judge. The five member networks of the White House press pool – ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and NBC – suspended coverage of Donald Trump this week after the administration abruptly barred journalists from CNN, MS Now, and Politico from White House grounds. Video of a Trump press conference aired without audio on Monday, as the barred journalists filed a lawsuit against the administration arguing that the ban violates their first amendment rights.
The coverage blackout comes as a significant escalation in the industry response to Trump’s ongoing antagonism towards mainstream media outlets, as the White House press pool functions as the primary source for coverage of almost all presidential public appearances and activities. Escalation was apparently met with speedy results, as Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly issued an overnight ruling after midnight Thursday temporarily suspending the ban and requiring the journalists have their access restored immediately. After being reportedly turned away from the grounds Thursday morning, the journalists involved in the lawsuit had returned to work in the White House press pool as of Thursday afternoon.
Mamdani’s first six months: ‘pothole politics,’ Trump rapport & historic NYC DoorDash settlement. The UNGA’s spotlight on New York City comes hot on the heels of the release of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s first “report card” in office, the annual Mayor’s Management Report offering a review of his first six months administering the city. The report highlights what the Mayor’s office calls “Pothole Politics,” documenting significant increases in potholes fixed (including the infamous Williamsburg Bridge “bump”) and street trees planted, alongside a marked drop in major felony crime in the city and rise in youth engagement with government and services.
Mamdani’s office bolstered their report card with some extracurriculars this week, announcing an “Opera for All” program offering free Metropolitan Opera tickets to New Yorkers, as well as a historic NYC Department of Consumer and Worker Protection settlement with DoorDash for $131.5 million over the delivery app’s “systematic violations of New York City’s Food Delivery Worker Laws.” The settlement comes after DoorDash notably spent $1.4 million in super PAC donations against Mamdani in his mayoral race, including $1 million to an organization that drew criticism during the election for mailers that showed images of Mamdani edited in a way he rebuked as “blatantly Islamophobic.”
New York City’s mayor also caught some of the spotlight this week for his surprising rapport with Trump, as the President paid a visit to Gracie Manor at Mamdani’s invitation in advance of the UNGA. Trump was markedly sunny about the meeting, saying Mamdani has “great potential” as a mayor; Mamdani described it as his opportunity to make a plea on the behalf of Haitian migrant New Yorkers whose rights have been stripped away under the Trump administration, saying “I shared my very strong opinions about how we can keep New Yorkers safe, how we can keep immigrant New Yorker safe, and how important immigrant New Yorkers, especially Haitian New Yorkers, are – not only to the fabric of our city, but also to our city’s economy.”
Palestine solidarity sea change: Macklemore announces “Free Palestine” tour for charity as more artists make public declarations, “Priests Against Genocide” march on Vatican. Rapper Macklemore has announced an upcoming “Free Palestine tour” with stops in Dublin, Paris, and London, pledging that all proceeds will be donated to Palestinian relief and advocacy organizations, namely Anera, Glia, Gaza Soup Kitchen, Taawon, HEAL Palestine, Palestinian Youth Movement, Middle East Children’s Alliance, Jewish Voice for Peace, Medical Aid for Palestinians, Institute for Middle East Understanding, Palestine Children’s Relief Fund and UNRWA USA.
Ed Sheeran, who sparked controversy last week by cutting Macklemore from his Loop tour after coming under pressure from Zionist stadium owner Robert Kraft, has continued to face backlash, with a crowd of protesters gathering outside his Philadelphia tour stop; Pink is also facing blowback for her role in supporting Macklemore’s initial ouster, with actor Javier Bardem joining activists in calling for UNICEF to end its relationship with the singer. A growing number of musicians and artists have made their own public statements in support of Palestine in recent days, including singer Phoebe Bridgers and Gorillaz’s Damon Albarn, while Palestinian aid and relief organizations say that the controversy has brought a marked increase in donations and popular support.
In Rome, around 150 Catholic priests, friars, and nuns marched together in protest of the genocide in Gaza, carrying a banner bearing the names of 300 children killed in Israeli military action in recent years. Protesters prayed outside the Vatican, before visiting the Palestinian and Lebanese embassies and finally protesting outside the Rome headquarters of Italian defense manufacturer Leonardo SpA.