Art of Surrender
Week of June 12-18, 2026
Published in conjunction with The Nation magazine, TRACKING THE CRISIS is a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
U.S. and Iran agree to 14-point MoU with significant concessions to Iranian demands, including on Lebanon; Trump spins agreement as a victory for global commerce while Israel, some members of Congress were shocked at the terms. In a dramatic turnaround after last week’s brinksmanship, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced on Friday, June 12 that a U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has “never been closer.” Pakistani prime minister Sharif later confirmed that a “final, agreed-upon text” of the peace deal had been reached. While cautioning the media to refrain from speculation as to its content, Araghchi described the broad outlines of the agreement on Iranian state media as a “two-stage process” that would initially effect an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and then provide at least a 60-day window to negotiate the more sensitive issues, including the nuclear stockpile and sanctions. Trump said Saturday that a deal was ready to be signed on Sunday, adding that the Strait of Hormuz would immediately be “open to all” once it happened.
Meanwhile, UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon continued to observe ‘extensive’ Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon, clocking over 500 attack ‘trajectories’ from Israeli positions in Lebanon, including in UNIFIL-supervised areas, on Thursday and into Friday. On Saturday, June 13, after Trump announced a deal was to be signed, Israel launched a fresh wave of attacks across Lebanon, killing five people and issuing forced displacement orders to over two dozen communities, including several located well north of the Litani River. The IDF also pushed deeper over the ‘yellow line’ in Palestine on Saturday, launching attacks on Gaza City as well as raids on several villages in the Nablus area in the north of the occupied West Bank.
As the U.S.-Iran deal inched closer to being signed, anxiety as well as deep dissatisfaction with Netanyahu reached a fever pitch in Israeli media, with several commentators slamming the MoU as a political and strategic defeat for Israel and decrying the lack of Israeli influence over final negotiations. Iranian officials expressed caution about confirming the agreement on their side, saying that the final text of the MoU was still under review by top officials and a decision on signing had yet to be made. While Trump talked up a possible Sunday ‘signing’ on Truth Social, Iran rejected the notion, saying Trump was attempting to engineer a “propaganda event” around the “symbolic occasion” of his 80th birthday and the UFC White House event, and that Iran would “not permit such a media and ceremonial manoeuvre.”
Air raid sirens sounded in Israel early Sunday as the IDF claimed two ‘aerial targets’ made impact in the northern desert. Far-right Israeli ministers such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich called for fresh strikes on the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, a refuge for many displaced Lebanese from the south, and which Israel has considered to be a ‘Hezbollah stronghold’. Late morning on Sunday, just as a high-level Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran to push through the last stretch of negotiations, Israel began bombing Dahiyeh, killing three and causing damage to several buildings.
The attack appeared deliberately timed as a “very strategic testing” of the U.S.-Iran deal, violating Iran’s ‘red line’ concerning Lebanon in what commentators called a last-ditch attempt to ‘sabotage’ a peace deal that would place limits on Israel’s ability to act with impunity in the region. Iranian military forces prepared for retaliation, saying they had their “finger on the trigger” ready to “strike at the enemy’s heart” as chief negotiator Ghalibaf slammed Israel’s action. He placed responsibility squarely on the United States, saying that the U.S. “either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or lacks the ability to do so”; he also added that “by giving the green light to the [Israeli] regime you cannot gain concessions.” Iranian National Security Commission spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei publicly warned the United States that “one must not fall into a calculation error. Even if you seek agreement or understanding, its path is disciplining the Zionist regime. If this rabid dog is not controlled the ink of an agreement not yet dry will bite our own foot.” The Lebanese government also accused Israel of using chemical weapons in southern Lebanon and killing three Lebanese military officers in separate incidents, articulating officially for the first time that the attacks aimed to sabotage U.S.-brokered peace talks in Washington.
Trump called for all sides to “stand down” in the wake of the Beirut attack, saying it “should not have happened” as “we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.” He also publicly denounced Netanyahu for trying to scuttle negotiations, telling Axios and Fox News that he held an “expletive-laden” phone call with Netanyahu, berating him for an attack that “was so bad… an hour before we are supposed to sign the deal” and confirming that negotiations were set back by ‘a few hours’. Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas told Al Jazeera that Trump’s public rebukes of Netanyahu represented a “rare rupture between Washington and Israel” not seen for decades as Trump felt ‘betrayed’ by Netanyahu over being sold ‘false assumptions’ that led him into the war as well as a recognition that Netanyahu has been trying to undermine him for some time.
Late on Sunday, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader announced that “a computational error in Beirut exhausted patience, and the order was issued” for retaliatory action, warning: “Zero hour has arrived, and the launchers are preparing… If the fire of mischief in Lebanon is not extinguished, the two powerful geographic arms – Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab – will squeeze your economic lifelines to the point of strategic suffocation.” One hour later, Pakistani prime minister Sharif announced on X that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement, and that both sides have declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” He thanked delegations from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye for their “immense contributions” in reaching the agreement, and announced that a signing ceremony has been scheduled for Friday, June 19 in Geneva. Minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social that the ceasefire agreement with Iran was “now complete,” including the “toll-free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and the ‘immediate’ lifting of the U.S. blockade. “Ships of the world, start your engines,” he said, as he declared: “Let the oil flow!”
Early Monday, Iran’s Mehr News Agency released a summary of the 14-point deal reached with the United States, noting that it incorporated nearly all of Iran’s demands, including: a cessation of military hostilities on all fronts in the region, including Lebanon; a complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days, including the withdrawal of U.S. forces in and around Iran; reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian arrangements; the release of at least $24 billion in Iran’s frozen assets; a lifting of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil; and $300 billion in reconstruction projects to be funded and supported by the United States and its regional allies. In return, Iran reiterated its commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and declared that further negotiations on the nuclear question would be conducted over the next 60-day phase of talks.
Stocks surged and countries around the world welcomed the agreement, calling it a ‘major diplomatic breakthrough,’ as accounts emerged of an intense 17-hour round of ‘frantic mediation’ in Tehran involving Pakistan and Qatar, with officials on all sides crediting Pakistan’s military chief, General Asim Munir, with playing a ‘pivotal role’ in getting the MoU over the finish line. JD Vance said that U.S. officials ‘aggressively intervened’ to stop Iran from launching a “massive missile strike” against Israel, and that through “intense, last minute diplomatic communications” U.S. negotiators successfully “secured explicit assurances” from Tehran that they would hold back their military response. Multiple Iranian news sources confirmed that Iran had prepared a retaliatory attack on Israel for its bombing of Dahiyeh, and that the “threat of wider regional war and a direct Iranian response” shifted the negotiations in Iran’s favor, as it agreed to stand down after “receiving last-minute concessions” from Trump including a commitment to “preserving Lebanon’s territorial integrity,” Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and an immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Still, the ceasefire continued to appear to be on shaky ground early in the week as Israel appeared defiant in the face of the international agreement; the IDF continued to conduct strikes in southern Lebanon as Netanyahu announced Monday that Israel intended to continue occupying southern Lebanon as well as parts of Syria, and Ben-Gvir declared that the U.S.-Iran agreement “will not bind us.” Iranian officials remained cautious in their public remarks, saying the United States “has a long road ahead” to gain Iran’s trust, and that several diplomatic visits with regional powers will be taking place ahead of the Geneva signing on Friday. Comments from Gulf states and other regional bodies signaled optimism for diplomatic efforts and welcomed new commitments for ‘regional security,’ with Oman hailing the agreement as a “victory for common sense.”
On Tuesday, oil prices fell to a three-month low as Trump continued to talk up the deal at the G7 summit in France, including an unusual remark where he suggested Syria should deal with Hezbollah rather than Israel, whose campaign in Lebanon was “causing too many casualties”; Trump praised Syrian president al-Sharaa as he said explicitly, “If Israel can’t do the job [against Hezbollah] without killing everyone else, then he will do the job. Syria will do the job.” He also continued publicly rebuking Netanyahu at the G7, insisting that the United States is “the big partner” while Israel is “the small partner,” and that Netanyahu “doesn’t have to knock down buildings in Beirut every time someone walks in who might be Hezbollah.”
On Wednesday, the White House released the official text of the MoU to CNN, which closely parallels the version published by Iranian news media over the weekend and confirmed that the United States has essentially acceded to Iran’s major ‘red lines,’ including on Lebanon. Iran declared victory as Trump and Vance attempted a positive spin for the United States as well, with Vance hailing a potential ‘new era’ for U.S.-Iran relations as well as for the wider Middle East. On Thursday, June 18, Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian electronically signed the MoU pending the official signing in Switzerland on Friday, which immediately went into effect as JD Vance confirmed at least a dozen ships were allowed to leave Iranian ports and pass through the U.S. blockade. Many commentators, including Professor Robert Pape, say that Thursday’s signing ushers in a new period of hard work and escalated danger as negotiations continue on the major sticking points of the final agreement.
Trump admits dwindling petroleum reserves, impending global energy crisis pushed U.S. into deal with Iran, as economic realists turn on war hawks and Israel, straining U.S.-Israeli ‘special relationship’ to a potential breaking point. Speaking at the G7 conference in Evian-des-Bains, France, Trump admitted that a major motivation for getting the final MoU signed with Iran this week was to avoid the global ‘economic catastrophe’ that would result if the Strait of Hormuz situation was not resolved, which “if we kept this going… could have happened.” Trump, noting that he didn’t want to be compared to Herbert Hoover, who presided over the onset of the Great Depression, said the stock market is “more brilliant than anybody there is… other than me of course,” and put his reasoning in simple economic terms, saying “every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market would go up like a rocketship,” and that “every time we said something negative, like guess what, we’re not going to settle, it went down very big.”
According to sources close to the White House, it was not only the stock market’s gyrations but also the specter of absolute oil shortages that drove Trump to agree to the eventual terms and rush toward signing a deal with Iran. Last week, the White House received an urgent report from oil executives warning that global commercial oil inventories were running critically low, and that gasoline prices could spike considerably by mid-to-late June as a result. Insiders say that Trump also received advance warning that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve had dropped to its lowest level in 40 years after a record drawdown of 8.9 million barrels last week, according to data released to the public Monday. Trump said Wednesday that global oil reserves would have “run out in four weeks,” after which there would be “bedlam.” Signing a deal, he said, would “allow the ships to go… if we kept bombing, those ships won’t be going.”
Despite the global economic realities pushing for an end to war, however, the deal was met with consternation not only from the Israeli political class, but also from Congressional hawks from both parties who decried Trump’s ‘surrender’ to Iran’s demands as an unmitigated ‘disaster.’ Senate Republicans blasted the deal, saying it gave no guarantees on Iran’s nuclear program; others denounced the lifting of sanctions, while Sen. Ted Cruz raised concerns about giving Iran’s ‘theocratic lunatics’ access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund, one of the major points in the deal. Outgoing Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted for the War Powers resolution to curb Trump’s executive power over the prosecution of the war last month, decried the outcome of the deal, saying Reagan would be “rolling in his grave.” Trump loyalist Sen. Lindsey Graham initially raised concerns, but changed his mind and gave the deal his critical support after reportedly having a “lengthy and productive discussion” with Steve Witkoff. Senate Democrats complained that the deal netted U.S. interests “far less” than the JCPOA settlement negotiated by the Obama Administration, while also making Iran stronger both regionally and globally as a result of Trump’s capitulation; but many, like Sen. Chris Murphy, cautiously backed the deal anyway as perhaps a “necessary surrender.”
The biggest sticking point that remains for the MoU in advance of its official signing on Friday remains Israel, which refuses to leave southern Lebanon despite “preserving Lebanon’s territorial integrity” being one of the terms in the deal and Israeli withdrawal an explicit condition for Iran’s continued participation in peace talks. On Thursday morning, Israel released a new map revealing plans to expand its occupation of southern Lebanon in direct defiance of the U.S.-Iran agreement, with far-right minister Amichai Chikli saying “if necessary, we’ll know how to say no to the United States.” Many analysts say the fate of peace with Iran will ultimately hinge on whether the United States can demonstrate the willingness and power to force Israel to change its policy on Lebanon.
The UK’s Minister for International Development called on Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon as Trump and Vance expressed impatience with Netanyahu’s continued intransigence Thursday and fierce clashes flared up in south Lebanon as Hezbollah attempted to prevent the IDF from advancing deeper into Lebanese territory. Trump issued an explicit warning on Thursday morning via the White House X account, which said the United States “expect[s] a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel."
As support for Israel collapses in the United States, both among voters and lawmakers for whom Israeli support has become politically toxic, even Hillary Clinton, who once said in 2008 that she would “obliterate” Iran if she were president, appeared to distance herself from her past alliance with Israel, commenting that Netanyahu has “long been obsessed” with attacking Iran and normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, and recalling that during her time as Secretary of State, “They were saying things like, ‘Our planes are on the runway.’ And I would say, ‘Well, good luck. I mean, OK, but why are you doing this?'” Also on Thursday, the New York Times published an interview with JD Vance in which the vice president unleashed a scathing rebuke of Israel’s “weird panic” over the deal, commenting that “you can’t just kill your way out of every national security problem you have.” He also reminded Israel that the weapons that protected them were “made with American hands and with American tax dollars,” and explicitly warned Israeli ministers that “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time… If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.” Vance told reporters at a White House press conference Thursday that “the Israelis, just like everybody else, have to respect this peace process.”
As of this writing, the Iranian delegation has delayed its departure for Switzerland’s signing ceremony, citing Israel’s continued attacks in southern Lebanon as violations of Article 1 of the newly-signed Memorandum of Understanding. Iran signaled its readiness to cancel all negotiations, re-impose the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and retaliate with missiles if Israel continued its aggressions in Lebanon. Chief negotiator Ghalibaf issued a statement saying that "the task assigned to us by the Supreme Leader is to pursue the fulfilment of the terms and clauses of the agreement," and that "We have no doubt about delivering a forceful response if the other side breaks its commitments."
Trial begins for 15 Minneapolis anti-ICE activists charged with domestic terrorism under NSPM-7.The U.S. Department of Justice indicted 15 individuals on charges of conspiring to impede federal immigration agents during Minneapolis’s Operation Metro Surge on Tuesday, June 16, as part of the National Security Presidential Memorandum 7 initiative. Twelve of the activists were arrested in early-morning home raids on Tuesday, while one was already in custody for other charges and two remain at large. Some individuals indicted face additional charges including solicitation to commit a crime of violence, interstate threats, interstate stalking, assaulting a federal officer and destruction of government property.
The DOJ has tied all arrests to Minneapolis group Direct Action Minnesota (DAMN), which they report as being associated with several sub-groups including Black Cat Worker’s Collective and Ray Rainbolt Memorial Shooting Club. Workday magazine reports that “the indictment cited some of the individuals’ participation in assemblies of trade unionists [...] as evidence that the activists participated in a criminal conspiracy.”
The Minneapolis Federation of Educators released a statement on Facebook stating that one of their members had been arrested, adding: “MFE is committed to defending the due process rights of our members, and our member is entitled to a presumption of innocence. It should also be said that this administration and Justice Department have repeatedly misrepresented facts about the occupation and the tens of thousands of good neighbors who opposed it, so any allegations made against our member should be viewed in that light.”
The indictment relies almost entirely on phone records and social media posts for its evidence, particularly records of chats and calls through Signal. The DOJ’s press release makes specific note of DAMN’s “opsec” tactics and policy of collecting phones before meetings. This information, combined with the comprehensiveness of the phone data being cited in the indictment – not just Signal group chat messages, but voicemails, text messages, Signal direct messages, and Signal calls – has led the Intercept to speculate that the DOJ may have had comprehensive access to the phones of at least some of the indictees.
Protests erupted outside the St. Paul federal building after the charges were announced. Per the Sahun Journal, “Inside the courthouse, U.S. Magistrate Judge John Docherty heard the defendants in batches as they made their first appearances. [...] Docherty called it “a bridge too far” to hold detention hearings for the defendants and released them with just two conditions: they cannot talk to their co-defendants in the case, and they cannot protest on federal government property.”
One of the indictees, Cameron Kennedy, told reporters he was not afraid of the charges, as many other ICE protesters have been dropped; he said he is afraid, however, of a resurgence of ICE activity in the Twin Cities.
MOVEMENT TRACKER
World Cup becomes people’s referendum on Palestine as fans, players and activists spread the message of solidarity across the world stage. Despite the many controversies on the field, particularly around FIFA’s administration of the 2026 World Cup, off the field the tournament has become a kind of people’s referendum on Palestine as fans, players, and commentators around the world have initiated an outpouring of visible solidarity with the Palestinian people in nearly every venue and host city.
During the World Cup’s opening match between Mexico and South Africa at the Estadio Azteca, Palestinian flags appeared throughout Mexico City as fans rallied in solidarity, including a group of fans forming a giant human Palestine flag in the Zocalo. Ahead of their opening match against Canada, the Bosnia-Herzegovina squad rallied in the streets with fans in Toronto to chant “Free Palestine,” while activists elsewhere in the city covered a FIFA billboard with a banner saying “Kick Israel out of FIFA.”
In New York, Morocco fans waved giant Palestinian flags and chanted “Free Palestine!” inside and outside the stadium around its match with Brazil on Saturday, while a Brazilian fan told reporters that “liberating Palestine is the ultimate goal.” Algeria fans rallied for Palestine ahead of their first match, against Argentina, on Tuesday, and paid tribute to Palestinian martyrs in the stands during the game itself. In Los Angeles on Sunday, local supporters waved Iranian and Palestinian flags from the stands, including a banner that said “Te Amamos Iran.”
Several pro-Palestine activist campaigns have launched to gain maximum visibility for the cause during the world’s biggest spectacle; Lifeline4Gaza has called for a boycott of the tournament, while encouraging support for families and young journalists caught in the Gaza crossfire. The ‘War Cup’ campaign has also launched to call attention to ongoing attacks and atrocities in Gaza committed by Israel with U.S. support as the World Cup tournament progresses; and a new campaign aims to pressure FIFA to address the deaths of at least 437 Palestinian football players who have been killed by Israeli forces since October 2023, more than a third of the total number of players in the 48-nation tournament itself.
In Gaza, football fans continue to gather, with limited resources, to watch the tournament amid the rubble, while young athletes have launched their own ‘World Cup’ tournament in Gaza City to celebrate the game and the players they have lost. As an organizer said, “Our own World Cup starts on land that is destroyed, devastated, full of hardship and wounds. We have players with amputations. Many players have lost their legs.”
Progressive kingmakers: AOC- and Bernie- endorsed candidates on a hot streak in midterm primaries. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders have both seen a rush of recent wins for progressive candidates they have endorsed in the 2026 midterm primary races. Sanders issued a flood of recent endorsements for Senate, House, state and local elections, with at least 75 candidates listed on Ballotpedia for this year; of those, so far 21 have won primary or general elections and ten have lost, while the remaining races remain contested. Ocasio-Cortez has been more selective with her endorsements, with only six official AOC-backed candidates listed on VoteHub for 2026, but of those, four have so far won their primary or general elections. She also endorsed notable winners Adelita Grijalva in 2025 and New York mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has issued his own slate of endorsements in a bid to boost the left wing of the Democratic Party. With a significant portion of Democratic leadership actively senescing and the party’s image in shambles even as its voter turnout rates climb, many are looking to California and the potential success of other high-profile races with progressive candidates as a weathervane for the future of the party.
In April, Sanders, Warren, and AOC endorsed Analilia Mejia, who beat her Republican opponent in a landslide to secure New Jersey’s 11th congressional district in a special election to fill the seat vacated by NJ gubernatorial victor Mikie Sherrill. Mejia’s vocal criticism of Israel drew significant AIPAC funding to her opponents, who failed to overcome her in the polls. In May, Philadelphia progressive Chris Rabb won a high-profile primary viewed by many as a proxy struggle for the future of the Democratic party. Pennsylvania’s third congressional district is one of the bluest in the country, with 88% voting for Harris in 2024; Rabb’s campaign points of UBI, universal health care, publicly owned grocery stores, and an end to U.S. military aid for Israel, secured him roughly 45% of the vote in the district’s primary, with state senator Sharif Street taking second place at 30%. Rabb was endorsed by AOC as well as “Squad” members Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Summer Lee.
New Jersey’s Adam Hamawy and Montana’s Sam Forstag also enjoyed primary wins after running progressive campaigns that were endorsed by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez. Hamawy, a surgeon and combat veteran who served in Gaza, combined left endorsements and significant funding to win a crowded primary to challenge an un-primaried Republican for a historically blue seat. Forstag is a 33-year-old union leader and former smoke jumper who says he was inspired to run after DOGE cuts slashed thousands of Forest Service employee positions.
AOC’s selectiveness has kept her distant from the abundant controversies around Sanders’ pick for Maine Senate Graham Platner, who swept the Democratic primary after governor Janet Mills dropped from the race and will challenge incumbent Republican Susan Collins in November. Sanders has also endorsed the comeback bid of former “Squad” member Cori Bush, a move many other elected progressives have hesitated to make due to the complexities of endorsing against an incumbent colleague.
Platner and Forstag are among a slate of Bernie candidates running to challenge red seats in 2026. Also among them are Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and California’s Randy Villegas, the latter of whom has also been endorsed by AOC. El-Sayed received a Sanders endorsement in his 2018 Michigan gubernatorial campaign, and more recently drew controversy by making a campaign appearance with popular democratic socialist YouTube/Twitch personality Hasan Piker, who faced a wave of criticism from mainstream Democrats and was recently denied entry into the UK for not sufficiently condemning Hamas.
