Airstrikes
Week of June 20-26, 2025
Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.
TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions
Israel-Iran ‘12-Day War’ ends as Trump orders airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, brokers tentative ceasefire. On Saturday, June 22, Trump announced on social media that the U.S. military had “completed a very successful attack” on three Iranian nuclear sites at ‘Fordow, Natanz, and Estfahan’. A U.S. official confirmed that in “Operation Midnight Hammer,” American B-2 bombers had dropped at least six 30,000 pound ‘bunker buster’ bombs on Fordow and Natanz, and U.S. submarines had fired TLAM cruise missiles at the sites as well. In a televised address shortly after the announcement, Trump claimed that the nuclear enrichment sites had been ‘completely and totally obliterated’, congratulated Netanyahu for ‘working as a team’, and said Iran ‘must now make peace.’ While Netanyahu praised Trump for his ‘bold decision’ to target Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strike as an "outrageous, grave and unprecedented violation" of international law, and that Iran "reserves all options to defend its security interests and people." On Monday, Putin met with Araghchi in Moscow and condemned the U.S. strikes as having ‘no basis and no justification.’ Iran on Monday retaliated against the strikes by firing missiles at the U.S. air base in Qatar, all of which were intercepted. Trump thanked Iran for giving ‘early notice’ of the attack. The head of the IAEA issued a stark warning on Monday that continued conflict could reach ‘unimaginable levels’ and called for a return to the negotiating table. The United States and Qatar brokered a tentative ceasefire on Monday night, which was touted by Trump as an end to the “12-day war” between Iran and Israel. Yet, as the ceasefire took effect early Tuesday, Israel and Iran traded strikes as Israel accused Iran of launching missiles after the ceasefire, which Iran denied, and threatened to ‘respond forcefully’ to the perceived violation. Trump lashed out at both countries, but especially at Israel, on Tuesday morning, dropping an ‘f-bomb’ in front of reporters as he expressed frustration that ‘both countries have been at war for so long they don’t know what the f**k they are doing’. Despite the shaky start, both nations declared victory and the ceasefire appears to have held as of this writing; Trump on Thursday announced talks with Iran are set to restart next week. Xinhua has produced a timeline summary of the war, CNN has published maps of the sites that were hit in the 12-day conflict, and the Washington Post chronicles Trump’s statements and decisions in the 73 hours between the U.S. attack and the ceasefire. On Wednesday, June 25, the Iranian Parliament formally suspended cooperation with the IAEA, citing its ‘enabling’ of U.S. airstrikes, and on Thursday, June 26, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public statement since the war began, saying Iran had delivered a ‘heavy slap to the U.S.’s face’ and that Trump’s strikes ‘achieved nothing.’
Congress in uproar over Trump going it alone on Iran strikes; White House weighs restricting intel to lawmakers after leaked Pentagon report showed limited damage to nuclear facilities. Trump’s weekend strike on Iran has caused a furor within Congress over the president’s unilateral action. Democrats from the ‘Gang of Eight’ – ranking members of Congress in the Senate and House intelligence committees, who are typically informed by the president ahead of any major foreign policy decisions – publicly assailed Trump for not briefing them before the attacks; Sen. Chuck Schumer said he had a ‘ten-second conversation’ with Trump and was not given any chance to comment or respond. CNN reported that although Trump had briefed some top congressional Republicans, leading Democrats were not informed until after the strike; and that the Administration had ‘carefully concealed’ that they had already planned the strike days before, even as Trump had publicly given a two-week deadline to consider U.S. involvement. Reps. Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie introduced a bipartisan War Powers resolution last week in an attempt to regain Congressional control over U.S. military involvement in the conflict, which Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed by claiming the War Powers Act itself was ‘unconstitutional’. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also dismissed the bipartisan bill, saying to reporters on Monday that he “hadn’t looked at it.” Shortly after the U.S. airstrike on Iran, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said on social media that Trump’s unauthorized action was ‘clearly grounds for impeachment’, drawing an angry response from Trump; on Tuesday, June 24, Rep. Al Green introduced articles of impeachment, which was voted down in the House by all Republicans and 128 Democrats. Confusion also reigned this week over the extent of the damage from the U.S. airstrikes; while Trump claimed in his address over the weekend that the strikes had ‘totally obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear sites, a leaked preliminary Pentagon intelligence report obtained by CNN and the New York Times indicated that the strikes did not destroy the facilities and had only set Iran’s nuclear program back by ‘months’. Trump immediately disputed the claim, saying the evidence was ‘inconclusive’ but reiterated his belief the sites were ‘obliterated’ and blasted CNN and the New York Times’ “fake news reporters” on social media. On Wednesday, Trump Administration officials circled the wagons as Pete Hegseth assailed reporters and a deputy Attorney General pledged to investigate and pursue whoever leaked the report, while Tulsi Gabbard and CIA director John Ratcliffe declared that ‘new intelligence’ confirmed Trump’s statements. The White House also moved to limit intelligence sharing with Congress on Wednesday as Trump accused Democrats of leaking the early report. The Pentagon finally conducted an official briefing to the Senate on Thursday, which provided no more clarity on the extent of the damage as Republicans and Democrats emerged with radically different assessments of the intel; Sen. Lindsey Graham affirmed Trump’s claim while Sen. Chris Murphy characterized the assessments as ‘deliberately misleading.’ IAEA head confirmed ‘extensive’ damage to Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, including some localized contamination, but stopped short of Trump’s claim, saying that ‘annihilated’ is a ‘bit too much’ to describe the damage. The House is scheduled to be briefed on the attack Friday.
Trump leaves NATO summit pleased as European members more than double defense spending targets to 5% of GDP. Leaders of the 32 member countries of NATO met in the Hague this week for a shortened one-day summit designed to placate Trump and keep the U.S. role in the alliance secure. Trump, a longtime NATO critic who has shaken the alliance in his second term due to his close relations with Putin, headed into the summit amid tensions over the Iran conflict and stopped short of affirming the U.S.’s commitment to the alliance if they did not meet his budget demands. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, however, appeared determined to win Trump over with a charm offensive, offering flattery over Trump’s airstrikes on Iran and his ceasefire negotiations (likening Trump to a ‘daddy’ vis-a-vis Israel and Iran) and focusing the summit solely on the question of defense investment, avoiding potentially difficult conversations around the Russia-Ukraine war. On Wednesday, June 25, NATO endorsed Trump’s proposal to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next 10 years, more than doubling their current spending targets. Trump praised the deal with his first full-throated endorsement of the military alliance, calling it a ‘great victory’ and hoped that the additional funds would be spent on military hardware made in the United States. The sole exception to the agreement was Spain, which had reached a deal with NATO before the summit to be excluded from the collective 5% target, citing that it would be ‘unreasonable’ for Spain to viably make such an economic commitment. Observers also noted that most European nations may struggle to meet the target given their own budget constraints. Most European nations saw the commitment as a way to secure a better position in trade negotiations with Trump, who criticized Spain for sitting out on the agreement and threatened to ‘punish’ the country through tariffs. NATO also affirmed a commitment to boosting space-based defenses, signaling a willingness to partner with private space firms. Largely sidelined from the summit was a discussion on Russia, where European nations remain divided from Trump over Putin’s ambitions. Democracy Now! featured an interview with antiwar journalist Richard Seymour on the historical context and future implications of the deal, while Transnational Institute’s Nick Buxton wrote for Al Jazeera on the planetary threats that may be exacerbated by the new re-armament push in Europe.
‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ races toward July 4 deadline after setbacks from GOP holdouts, Senate parliamentarian. As Senate Majority Leader John Thune closed in on his ambitious timeline to hold a vote on the Senate version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful’ budget bill by Friday, June 27, reports surfaced this week that House Republicans and moderates are ‘fuming’ at Senate revisions and will not pass the Senate’s proposal with its major changes to Medicaid cuts, the SALT deduction cap, and other issues that have been red lines for some GOP House members. Even as talk of the ballooning deficit has quieted among fiscal-hawk objectors, despite a new report adding $400 billion to the price tag estimated by the CBO, more than a dozen House Republicans reportedly told leadership they could not support the Senate’s cuts to state-level funding for Medicaid, which studies have shown will hurt red states the most. 24 other House Republicans urged the Senate to add back certain HSA healthcare provisions that had been included in the House version. Other House Republicans balked at the Senate’s revision of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, a key issue that won over critical votes in the narrowly-passed House bill. Sen. Susan Collins pushed hard on provisions that would ease the impact of Medicaid cuts to rural hospitals; and Trump stalwart Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene turned her vote to a ‘no’ over the ‘dirty poison pill’ of the bill’s ban on state regulation of AI. The Washington Post reviews nine provisions fueling intense disagreement between Republicans in the House and Senate. Returning from the NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump turned up the pressure on GOP holdouts; Sen. Mitch McConnell attempted to assuage fellow Senators’ qualms over the political fallout of cutting Medicaid by assuring them that voters will eventually “get over it.” Thune faces another giant roadblock on the Senate bill this week as the nonpartisan Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth McDonough, axed dozens of the bill’s provisions for violating the Byrd rule, a long-standing Senate guardrail that disqualifies policies ‘extraneous’ to the federal budget from passage through reconciliation. McDonough ruled against several of the bill’s most controversial measures, including revisions to Medicaid eligibility for immigrants and gender-affirming care, most of the Senate Banking Committee’s provisions including the dismantling of the CFPB, the proposed bond requirement inhibiting federal injunctions, limitations on grant funding for sanctuary cities, revisions to the student loan program, the proposed tax credit for gun silencers, as well as the proposal to sell off over three million acres of public lands and erode environmental protections. The New York Times is maintaining a running list of the provisions thrown out by the parliamentarian as the Senate scrambles on rewrites to make the bill compliant with reconciliation rules. While some Senators erupted in anger at the rulings and, like Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, have called for firing the ‘woke parliamentarian’, Thune and other GOP leaders shut down the objections and affirmed that the Senate will respect the Byrd process. Given the major rewrites required by the Byrd rule, Thune’s goal of a Friday Senate vote looks unlikely, as Republicans only have one week remaining to get the bill on Trump’s desk by July 4.
SCOTUS rules to allow third-country deportations. On Monday, June 23, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to temporarily lift an injunction placed by a Maryland judge on the Trump Administration’s deportations to third-party countries, allowing the Administration to resume deporting migrants without providing ‘meaningful opportunity’ to contest their deportations. The emergency ruling was issued without an explanation from the majority, but Justice Sotomayor, in the dissenting opinion for the liberal minority, wrote that the ruling puts “thousands at risk of torture or death” and excoriated the court for implicitly backing the Trump Administration’s defiance of the lower courts, writing that the “government has made clear in word and deed that it feels unconstrained by the rule of law.” Legal expert Stephen Vladek slammed the ruling as ‘disastrous,’ saying that it opens the door for future defiance of the courts. The New York Times reports that the Trump Administration is seeking deals with as many as 58 nations to hold migrant detainees, building what the Intercept calls a “global gulag for expelled immigrants.” Costa Rica’s Constitutional Court on Tuesday ordered their government to release Asian migrants held in the country by the Trump Administration, citing that the migrants had no access to information or services regarding their immigration status.
Immigration updates: Deaths, human rights abuses in ICE custody; Florida announces plans for ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ in Everglades. CBS News reports that internal government data indicates that ICE is holding a record 59,000 detained migrants around the country, and is now at over 140% of its planned capacity. The report also shows that nearly half of the detained migrants have no criminal record, and only 30% have ever been convicted of a crime. Lawmakers and immigrant rights groups are sounding the alarm over ‘inhumane’ and ‘unsanitary’ conditions in the overcrowded detention facilities; Rep, Judy Chu reported that during her inspection of a California facility, she observed that many migrants had not been able to change their underwear for 10 days or more, and were denied phone access. After hundreds of migrants have been detained in raids across Southern California, immigration lawyers in Los Angeles describe the area’s detention facilities as a ‘ticking time bomb’ as detainees face limited access to food and water amid extreme temperatures. In Texas, first-hand accounts of family detention facilities describe a nightmarish situation where adults are fighting children for clean water and detainees are denied access to medical treatment. In Louisiana, a pregnant woman detained at a facility lost her child to stillbirth after asking guards for access to prenatal care for three days. Wired reports on the hundreds of 911 calls made from detention centers that reveal a “system inundated with life-threatening incidents, delayed treatment, and overcrowding.” Authorities in Canada are ‘urgently’ seeking information about a 49-year old Canadian national who was detained last month and died of unknown causes this week in a Miami ICE facility. Amid these harrowing reports, DHS is taking further steps to limit lawmakers’ oversight of these facilities. In California, protests have erupted over ICE plans to partner with private prison contractor CoreCivic to reopen a state prison in California City as the state’s largest migrant detention facility. And in Florida, construction has begun on a 1,000-bed facility in the middle of the Everglades that is being touted by state officials as ‘Alligator Alcatraz.’ The New Republic reports that Kristi Noem is planning to use FEMA funds to support the detention center, which will cost an estimated $450 million a year to run. The American Prospect reports on the growing numbers of ‘copycat’ individuals impersonating ICE agents in order to commit crimes such as robbery, trespassing and kidnapping. In a Congressional subcommittee hearing this week, AG Pam Bondi claimed she had no knowledge that ICE agents were hiding their faces with masks, despite the mountain of video evidence widely available in the media and online. 404 Media reports on a new face recognition app being used by ICE to identify bystanders or protestors; the Proud Boys and a disgraced finance industry exec have launched a new app, ‘ICERaid’, that allows vigilante citizens to turn in migrants to ICE in exchange for cryptocurrency. Mother Jones chronicles the harrowing plight of migrants hiding from ICE in LA, while the Washington Post reports that local economies are faltering as ICE crackdowns create a climate of fear among immigrant communities who are refraining from going to work or spending money in the community.
Tracking the Money: profiteering from war and authoritarianism under the Trump Administration. As Trump dropped bunker-buster bombs on Iran this past weekend, reports surfaced this week that at least 19 members of Congress have bought stock in military contractors involved in the Iran strikes, as well as other defense companies; and have seen their holdings swell in value since Israel began its war on Iran on June 13. More than 50 members of Congress are current holders of defense industry stocks. A new report from the Project on Government Oversight reports that White House chief of staff Stephen Miller owns between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of stock in Palantir, the shadowy firm partially owned by Peter Thiel that has been contracted by the Trump Administration to construct a massive surveillance database from Americans’ private federal data, and holds other contracts for military and immigration enforcement systems. Palantir has been the highest-performing stock on the S&P 500, rising over 80% in 2025 alone. The Bulwark reports on members of Congress who have also traded in Palantir stock. Politico’s Greenwire reports that the biggest winners from Trump’s ‘gold-standard science’ executive order are AI companies, as the Administration pushes to integrate AI tools into federal agency operations. The newly downsized CFPB is moving to drop all cases against predatory financial firms, as a new report from Oxfam reports that the wealth of the richest 1% increased by more than $33 trillion since 2015.
MOVEMENT TRACKER
‘Democratic earthquake’ as Zohran Mamdani beats Andrew Cuomo to win NYC mayoral primary, intensifying debates over the future of the party. On Tuesday, June 24, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani pulled off a stunning upset in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, leading Andrew Cuomo by nearly eight points in the preliminary count on election night. While the final counts from the primary’s ranked-choice vote process have yet to be finalized, Mamdani had such a commanding early lead over Cuomo that the latter, seeing no path forward, conceded the race to Mamdani on Tuesday night. Mamdani defeated Cuomo, who had amassed a record-setting $25 million war chest for the election, by building an impressive grassroots ground game centered on an ‘unapologetically progressive economic platform’ that spoke to the needs and concerns of working-class New Yorkers: free transit, rent control, child care services, and more. Although Mamdani still faces challenges the general election – where Cuomo and disgraced former mayor Eric Adams plan to run as independents backed by corporate money and Democratic elites – Mamdani’s resounding win, to many, signals a way forward for a flagging Democratic party plagued by voter alienation and fecklessness in the face of the Trump Administration’s abuses of power. Some Democrats, like David Hogg, see Mamdani as part of a ‘generational’ fight as younger Dems seek to unseat the party’s gerontocratic elite; other progressives, such as Bernie Sanders, AOC and Chris Murphy, see the fight for the soul of the party more in terms of class struggle against inequality and the oligarchic capture of the centrist leadership faction. Either way, Mamdani’s win is inspiring a surge of progressive primary challenges against incumbent Democrats, which has caused “a lot of anxiety” among senior leadership. Mondoweiss also discusses Mamdani’s win in the context of his support for Palestine and the potentially waning influence of Israel-centered politics within the Democratic Party, as Rep. Ro Khanna has recently spoken out about the outsized influence of AIPAC in Congress. Trump and right-wing MAGA pundits have predictably attacked Mamdani on several fronts, including threatening to deport Mamdani, a naturalized U.S. citizen. John Nichols of The Nation frames Mamdani’s victory as a rebuke to the cynical, consultant-powered Democratic elite and an inspiring affirmation that ‘power belongs to the people.’ As Mamdani himself said to MSNBC, “We have found exactly the way to defeat organized money, which is organized people… what Americans coast to coast are looking for are people who will fight for them, not just believe in the things that resonate with their lives, but actually fight and deliver on those very things.”
Mahmoud Khalil released from ICE custody, speaks out on continuing the fight for Palestine. After being detained for 104 days in a Louisiana ICE facility, Columbia student and pro-Palestine activist Mahmoud Khalil was released on Friday, June 20, and returned to his home in New York. Speaking to the BBC after his return flight, he said “my existence is a message” to the Trump Administration, that “all the attempts to suppress pro-Palestinian voices have failed now.” Khalil was reunited with his wife and infant son, who was born while Khalil was in custody. Joined by AOC at a press conference in New York on Saturday, Khalil said he would “continue to advocate for Palestinians, for the immigrants who are left behind in that facility.” AOC reiterated that Khalil’s detention was a violation of his First Amendment rights and that “we will continue to resist the politicization and the continued political persecution that ICE is engaged in.” Khalil’s release follows that of fellow Columbia activist Mohsen Mamdawi, who was released from ICE custody last week and also plans to continue advocating for Palestinian and immigrant rights. Though both Khalil and Mamdawi still face looming legal battles over their detention, the global movement for Palestine continues to grow; this week, the shipping giant Maersk cut ties to Israeli settlements in a major victory for the BDS movement, and nine EU countries have called for talks to end trade ties to Israeli settlements. In an exclusive interview with Zeteo’s Prem Thakker, Khalil said that the “Trump administration in our cases is going more than an extra mile to suppress pro-Palestine speech in this country because it's working… the future in America is to support human rights, to support Palestinian rights, and to support justice, as simple as that.”
Polls show support for Trump dropping on nearly every issue, including overwhelming opposition to U.S. involvement in Iran war. Polling data released from multiple public opinion firms this week showed that Trump’s general approval rating took a hit after his airstrikes on Iran, which according to a CNN poll was opposed by a 56% majority of Americans (notably, 60% of Independents and 82% of Democrats). A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 84% of Americans are worried that the Iran strikes will lead to a wider conflict, with Trump’s overall approval rating in that poll dipping to an all-time low of 41%. Support for Trump is dropping on nearly every major issue pursued by the Trump Administration, including the ‘Big, Beautiful’ budget bill, which is polling at an average of 24 points underwater across four separate polling sets; making it the most unpopular piece of legislation passed since at least 1990. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll found opposition to the budget bill by a nearly 2-1 margin. Even on immigration, Trump’s signature campaign issue, a new Quinnipiac poll found that nearly two-thirds of voters (64%) prefer giving undocumented immigrants a pathway to legal status, up nearly 10 points from Trump’s inauguration six months ago. A June 24-25 poll by Emerson college showed that 53% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track; Truthout highlights several polls this week showing Trump’s approval numbers are now underwater by double digits.
Upcoming Protests, events, and actions.
The American Federation of Teachers has launched an online letter-writing campaign to Congress to urge a NO vote on the budget reconciliation bill that will hurt working families and children. More information can be found on the AFT website.
The National Immigrant Justice Center and other advocacy organizations are also launching an online letter-writing campaign to urge a NO vote on the budget bill’s inclusion of funding and provisions that advance Trump’s mass deportation agenda. More information can be found on the National Center for Youth Law website.
Saturday, June 28: #TeslaTakedown has called for a ‘Musk Must Fall’ day of action to protest Elon Musk on his birthday. More information and a map of local actions can be found at this link.
Saturday, June 28: The Mayday Coalition Project has called for a rally at Cincinnati’s Ziegler Park in support of LGBTQIA+ rights on the anniversary of the Stonewall uprising. More information can be found at MayDayCoalitionProject.com.
Month of July: San Francisco is hosting LaborFest, a month-long festival of protest and political education actions to celebrate the anniversary of the 1934 San Francisco general strike. A list of events can be found on Indybay, and more information can be found at LaborFest.net.
Tuesday, July 1st: LatinaRebels and Communal Press have called for a nationwide ‘Sick of ICE’ Sick-Out to protest ICE raids in immigrant communities. Participants are encouraged to stay home from work and support immigrant businesses or families where available.
Friday, July 4: The 50501 Movement has called for a ‘Free America’ Day of Action on Independence Day. More information and a list of local actions can be found at https://action.womensmarch.com/calendars/free-america-weekend.
Thursday, July 17: The No Kings coalition has called for a ‘Good Trouble Lives On’ Day of Action on the anniversary of John Lewis’ passing. More information and a map of local actions can be found at https://goodtroubleliveson.org/.
July 17 - July 20: The American Association of University Professors is hosting their Summer Institute for higher education activists in Atlanta, GA. More information and registration can be found on the AAUP website.
Summer 2025: Stand Up for Science has called for organizing a variety of local actions as part of its Summer Fight for Science in America. More information, an organizer toolkit and a map of local actions can be found at https://act.standupforscience.net/event_campaigns/summer-fight.
Lawsuit updates.
A federal judge on Tuesday, June 24 blocked the Trump Administration from eliminating union bargaining for hundreds of thousands of federal workers at 21 agencies, siding with the AFGE and federal unions who argued that the March executive order ending collective bargaining rights for federal workers was illegal.
An appeals court has ordered the Trump Administration to return Jordin Melgar-Salmeron, a man who was wrongfully deported to El Salvador in May just 28 minutes after a federal court had expressly barred his removal.
A federal judge ordered government agencies to restore funding to University of California scientists, ruling in the first class action suit to challenge grant terminations. The decision may affect rulings on other grant terminations and could be expanded to all grants terminated by the federal government.
The NIH has halted new terminations of ‘politically sensitive’ grants after a federal judge ruled that the cancellations of NIH grants on the basis of the Trump Administration’s anti-DEI policy were illegal. The ruling covers not only grants that have already been terminated, but ‘all grants in the queue’ to be terminated.
The EPA’s staff union has filed a Hatch Act complaint against EPA head Lee Zeldin over a newsletter sent to employees last week that contained attacks on the Democrats and the Biden Administration that could be construed as illegal partisan activity.
